Toynbee 预言 中国文化将统一世界

汤因比预言：中国文化将统一世界

Toynbee predicts: Chinese culture will unify the world

November 26, 2016
http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html

阿诺德·汤因贝是英国著名历史学家。他的20卷本巨著《历史研究》与斯宾格勒的《西方的没落》和《罗马吉本的早兴衰》并列，传承了“最持久的沉思”，他和斯宾格勒有一个共同点：他们两人都洞察了二十世纪西方文明的衰落，但他不像斯宾格勒那样，为西方描绘了可怕无望的前景，他试图以基督的救赎精神来拯救西方。他的研究继承自英国的经验主义，他的核心是思想受到法国哲学家柏格森的影响，柏格森的灵感来自于德国的歌德，他早期对古罗马的研究导致了全球一体化的思想，使他相信人类的统一性，因此被称为“全球统一先知” “”。下面，我就摘录他晚年与日本社会活动家池田合着的对话：《展望二十一世纪》，看看他是如何预言世界统一的：

中华民族的美德在屈辱的世纪中继续发挥作用。这种美德也体现在移居世界各地的华侨华人的活动中。

东亚拥有许多历史遗产，可以使其成为世界统一的地理和文化轴心。在我看来，这些遗产有以下几个方面：

第一，中华民族的经验。在过去的二十一个世纪里，中国在全世界范围内维持着一个帝国，是真正的区域国家的典范。

其次，在中国历史的长河中，中华民族逐渐培育了世界精神。

第三，儒家世界观中的人文主义。

第四，儒释道的理性主义。

第五，东亚人对宇宙的奥秘敏感，认为宇宙想要主宰宇宙就会被打败。我想，这就是道家思想最可贵的意义。

第六，这种直觉是佛家、道家和中国所有哲学流派（除了今天已绝迹的法家）所共有的。人类的目的不是超越自己的想象来主宰自然，而是相信自己必须与自然和谐相处。

第七，过去，无论是军事领域还是非军事领域，科学应用于现代技术竞争，西方人占据主导地位，但东亚国家可以击败他们。日本人已经证明了这一点。

第八，日本人和越南人敢于挑战西方的勇气。这种勇气在未来还会继续下去，但我希望在人类历史的下一个阶段，能够为解决人类问题的建设性事业做出贡献。

在现代世界，我亲身体会到中国人能够胜任任何职业，并且能够保持高水平的家庭生活。中国人无论在国家衰落的时候，还是在国家动乱的时候，都能保持这种美德。

未来统一世界的恐怕不是西欧国家，也不是西欧国家，而是中国。而正因为中国对未来的政治使命有这样的政治信号，所以中国在当今世界上有着惊人的威望。中国两千二百年来的统一政府，除了很短的一段时间外，在政治上已经将亿万人民统一为一个整体。而且，一个统一的中国在所有受保护国家的政治主权上都得到承认。文化的影响甚至渗透到遥远的地区，即所谓的中华王国”。事实上，自公元前221年以来，中国一直是半个世界的中心，在政治的各个领域都团结一致，而在西方，我是这样的。恐怕中国的命运将带动半个以上的世界，为整个世界带来政治的团结与和平。

英国人打败了拿破仑，立即发动了鸦片战争，唤醒了中国。

未来中国将在人类社会中发挥怎样的作用？

由于西方族势力的扩张和暂时统治，地球人类社会已经摆脱了这种统治力量，并将在未来继续下去。在人类社会最后排入地球的时候，中国仅仅停留在三个国家、五强之一或者更强大的位置？或者成为世界的“王国”，是中国未来的使命？

这是全人类都关心的问题，尤其是距离中国较近的苏联和日本。美国可以撤军

从东亚大陆沿岸和海上岛屿前往关岛，然后从夏威夷撤出。一旦需要撤回美国西海岸，美国和中国就可以脱离整个太平洋。但今天，单纯的地理距离不再重要。火箭的发明使浩瀚的太平洋变得窄如溪流。包括中国在内的所有国家都在直线范围内。这就是今天的现实。
所以，在我看来，当全人类成长为一个社会时，可能就是世界统一的日子。如今，在原子时代，这种通过武力进行统一征服的方式——统一地球大部分地区的传统方式——已经很难做到。同时，我所预见的和平统一必须以地理和文化为轴心，不断具体化和扩大。我有预感，这个轴心不在美国、欧洲和苏联，而是在东亚。

东亚地区包括中国、日本、韩国、越南，人口众多。这些民族的活力、勤奋、勇气、智慧，不亚于世界上任何一个民族。从地理上看，这是从中华文化与佛教共同传承的角度来看，还是从外部现代西方文明不得不妥协的这个共同问题来看，它们是相连的纽带。就中国人而言，几千年来成功地团结了政治界和文化界数亿人民，比世界上任何其他民族都多。他们展示了政治和文化上统一的能力，并取得了无与伦比的成功。这种统一是当今世界的绝对要求。中国人民与东亚人民之所以合作，在人类统一进程中被认为是不可或缺的、必然的过程中，可能会起到主导作用，原因就在这里。

如果我推测没有错误的话，估计世界的统一就能和平实现了。这是原子时代唯一可行的道路。然而，虽然是中华民族，但任何时候都不太平。战国时期，和古希腊、近代欧洲一样，也有分裂和斗争。然而汉代以后，战国时期的好战精神就被抛弃了。早在公元前202年，汉朝开国皇帝刘邦就完成了中国的统一。

在此之前，始皇帝的政治统一是通过武力实现的。因此，他死后，出现了民族主义复辟的地方。汉代刘邦维护了中国民族感情从地方分权到世界主义的平衡。与秦始皇的魅力和专制行为相反，他巧妙地用自己的生命来完成事业。

未来统一世界的人一定是世界主义者，正如中国的第二任统治者取得了更大的成功一样。同时，还需要有实现最终目标的能力。世界的统一是避免人类集体自杀的出路。在这方面，现在准备最好的是两千多年来形成了独特思维方式的中国人民。不是在半个世界，而是在整个地球上，人们可以生活或社交。必须实现统一的未来，而政治家的原型就是汉代的刘邦。

编者注：

外国历史学家的言论似乎值得中国人深思。当我们中国人看不起自己的中国文化时，当我们中国人不当地贬低自己时，外国人就看不到我们的文化和我们历史上的优秀之处，甚至在他们眼中的文化可能会统一整个世界。

然而回想起来，我们中国人对自己的文化又了解多少？反对儒家，好像连儒家经典都没读过；反对佛教，认识似乎只停留在宗教上，而未能看到佛教人生观的分析；反对传统文化。就是蝉的传统文化不知道是什么，就因为反对所以反对，说一点道理。

你为什么不以平静的心情，静静地了解我们的文化呢？谁反对，必有强烈的反对者，有理由接受时代的奉承或恭维，认为儒学是废物，必须自学儒家垃圾 第123条，要说服别人，如果只有无理论证，只是在上面儒家帽子一顶，没人会相信。反对佛教也是如此。有哲学家说过，佛教哲学是最美的哲学。然而，在这个哲学论坛上，有很多人不能容忍佛教哲学。哲学不应该是排他性的

好的哲学永远是最好的。

在这里，我想说：作为我们中国人，但作为一个爱好哲学的中国人，必须要对其历史和文化史有一个很好的认识，而不是站在批判的起点上，历史文化研究就是批判，这不好。先生。钱慕伟说：“研究我们民族的历史文化，应该有一些温情。在我看来，在现在的中国，只要能做到这一点，就已经很好了，温暖在很多人看来是很难实现的。当然，这并不是说历史不需要批评，但也并非如此。批判的标准，是建立在这一点的基础上的，而要达到这一点，就必须建立在对自己的历史和文化的理解或洞察的基础上，而不是他人的、或感性的判断。总之，我们必须有良好的历史观，要能够准确地回顾和研究民族历史文化，要能够从历史文化中提炼出可以对中国有关党派进行系统总结的哲学思想。

阿诺德·约瑟夫·汤因比（Arnold Joseph Toynbe，1889—1975）是英国著名历史学家。汤因比对历史有着独特的眼光，他的12本历史研究著作讲述了世界上各个主要民族的兴衰。被称为“现代学者最伟大的成就”。因为他的叔叔是一位专门研究经济发展史的历史学家，也叫阿诺德·汤因比（Arnold Toynbee，1852—1883），为了区分两者，人们通常称呼两人的全名，以免混淆。

Toynbee predicts: Chinese culture will unify the world

November 26, 2016
http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html

Arnold Toynbe is a famous English historian. His 20 volume masterpiece "historical research" and Spengler's "decline of the west" and the "Rome gibbon early rise and fall" in parallel, is called "the giant History Museum, is the most famous contemporary American philosophy professor Li Weiyu of human civilization through the heritage of the" most and most sustained meditation". He and Spengler have the same thing: they both have insight into the decline of Western civilization in twentieth Century. But he did not like Spengler, depicts a terrible hopeless prospect for the west, he tries to salvation spirit of Christ to save the west. His research was inherited from British empiricism, and his core ideas were influenced by the French philosopher Bergson, whose inspiration came from Gerd of germany. His early studies of ancient Rome led to the idea of a global integration that convinced him of the unity of human beings and was thus called a "global unified prophet"". Below, I will extract from his old age and Japanese social activist Ikeda co authored the dialogue: "outlook twenty-first Century", take a look at how he predicted the unity of the world:

The virtue of the Chinese nation has continued to function in the humiliating century. This kind of virtue is also embodied in the activities of overseas Chinese people who have migrated to different parts of the world.

East Asia has many historical legacies, which can make it the unifying geographical and cultural axis of the world. In my opinion, these heritages have the following aspects:

First, the experience of the Chinese nation. In the past twenty-one centuries, China has maintained an empire all over the world and has been an example of a truly regional country.

Second, in the long course of Chinese history, the Chinese nation gradually cultivated the spirit of the world.

Third, humanism in the Confucian worldview.

Fourth, the rationalism of Confucianism and buddhism.

Fifth, East Asians are sensitive to the mystery of the universe, and believe that the universe will be defeated if it wants to dominate it. I think this is the most precious sense of taoism.

Sixth, this intuition is Buddhism, Taoism and Chinese all genres of Philosophy (except today extinct Legalists) have in common. The aim of man is not to dominate the nature beyond his own conceit, but to have a belief that he must live in harmony with nature.

Seventh, in the past, in military and non military two areas, science was applied to the modern competition of technology, while the Westerners were dominant, but East Asian countries could defeat them. The Japanese have proved it.

Eighth, the courage of the Japanese and Vietnamese to dare to challenge the west. This courage will continue in the future, but I hope that in the next stage of human history, it can contribute to the constructive cause of solving human problems.

In the modern world, I have personally learned that the Chinese are competent for any profession and that they can maintain a high standard of family life. The Chinese are able to hold on to this virtue no matter when the country is declining or when it is actually in turmoil.

It is probably not the Western European countries, nor the countries of Western Europe, but China that will unify the world in the future. And because China has such a political signal for future political missions, China has an amazing prestige in the world today. China's unified government in the past two thousand and two hundred years, in addition to a very short period of time, has been politically hundreds of millions of people unified as a whole. Moreover, a unified China is recognized in the political sovereignty of all protected states. The influence of culture even permeates far away regions, what is called the kingdom of china". As a matter of fact, China has been the center of half the world since almost 221 bc. In the last five hundred years, the world has been united in every field of politics and in the west. I am afraid it is China's destiny to bring more than half the world and bring political unity and peace to the world as a whole.

As for the past China, Napoleon said, "don't wake the sleeping giant."". The English defeated Napoleon and immediately launched the Opium War, which awakened china.

What role will China play in human society in the future?

Because of the expansion and temporary rule of the Western Ethnic forces, the earth human society has been rid of this ruling power and will continue in the future. In the last row into the earth in the human society, China just stay in the three countries, one of the five powers or more powerful position? Or become the world's "the kingdom", is the future of the China mission?

This is a matter of concern for all mankind, especially the Soviet Union and Japan, which are closer to china. The United States can withdraw from the East Asian mainland coast and the sea islands to Guam, and then withdraw from Hawaii. Once needed to be withdrawn to the west coast of the United States, the United States and China can be separated from the entire Pacific ocean. But today, simply geographical distance is no longer important. The invention of rockets led to the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean as narrow as a stream. All countries, including China, are within each other's straight-line range. That's the reality of today.
So, in my opinion, when all mankind grows into a single society, it may be the day of world unification. Today in the atomic age, this unified conquest by force - the traditional way of unifying the vast part of the earth - has been hard to do. At the same time, the peaceful reunification that I foresee must be centered on the geographical and cultural axis and continuously crystallized and expanded. I have a hunch that this axis is not in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union, but in East asia.

East Asia, consisting of China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, has a large population. The vitality, the diligence, the courage, the wisdom of these nations are no less than those of any other nation in the world. From the geographical point of view, this is from the common heritage of Chinese culture and Buddhist point of view, or from the outside of modern western civilization had to compromise this common problem, they are connected in a bond. And as far as the Chinese are concerned, thousands of years have succeeded in uniting hundreds of millions of people from the political and cultural world, than any other nation in the world. They demonstrate the ability to be politically and culturally unified and have unparalleled success. Such unification is the absolute requirement of the world today. The reason why the Chinese and the East Asian peoples are cooperative, in the process of human unification which is considered as indispensable and inevitable, may play a leading role, and the reason lies here.

If I speculate that there is no mistake, it is estimated that the unification of the world will be realized in peace. This is the only feasible road in the atomic age. However, although it is the Chinese nation, it is not peaceful at any time. In the Warring States period, as in ancient Greece and modern Europe, there were also divisions and struggles. However, after the Han Dynasty, the belligerent spirit of the Warring States period was abandoned. The founding emperor of the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang, completed the unification of China as far back as 202 bc.

Before that, the political unity of the first emperor was accomplished by force. Therefore, after his death, there appeared a place of nationalism restoration. In the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang kept the balance of Chinese national feelings from the local decentralization to the cosmopolitanism. Contrary to Qin Shihuang's actions of charm and despotism, he skillfully used his life to accomplish the cause.

Those who will unify the world in the future must be cosmopolitan, just as the second rulers of China have achieved greater success. At the same time, the ability to achieve the ultimate goal is required. The unification of the world is the way to avoid human collective suicide. In this respect, what is best prepared now is the Chinese people who have developed a unique way of thinking in the past two thousand years. Not in half the world, but in the whole earth where people can live or socialize. A unified future must be achieved, and the original model of the statesman is Liu Bang of the Han dynasty.

Editor's note:

The speech of foreign historians should seem to be worth pondering by chinese. When we look down on their own Chinese Chinese culture, when we Chinese their own history improperly belittle oneself, foreigners can see our culture and our history of outstanding place, even in the eyes of the culture they may unify the whole world.

However, looking back, we Chinese in their own culture and know how many? Against Confucianism, it seems that even the Confucian classics have not read; oppose Buddhism, understanding just seems to only stay in religious, but failed to see the Buddhist outlook on life analysis; against the traditional culture. It is the traditional culture of the cicadas do not know what, just because the opposition so opposed, say a little truth.

Why don't you in a calm mood, quietly understand our culture? Who oppose, there must be a strong opposition who reason to receive flattery or compliment of the era, that Confucianism is a waste, must study by oneself say a Confucian garbage 123th, to convince others, if only no argument argument, just on a top hat Confucian a top, no one will believe. The same is true against buddhism. Some philosophers have said that Buddhist philosophy is the most beautiful philosophy. However, there are many people who can not tolerate Buddhist philosophy in this philosophical forum. Philosophy should not be exclusive, and good philosophy is always the best.

Here, I want to say: as we Chinese, but as a hobby of philosophy Chinese, must have a sound understanding of its history and culture history, rather than standing on the starting point of criticism, historical and cultural studies is to criticize, this is not good. Mr. Qian Muwei said: "there should be some warmth in studying the history and culture of our nation.". In my view, in the present China, as long as it can be done to the point, it has been very good, warmth seems to be difficult to achieve among many people. Of course, this is not to say that history does not need to be criticized, but not so. The critical criteria, is established on the basis of the point, and to achieve this point, is must be established on the basis of understanding or insight on their own history and culture, and not others, or sense judgment. In short, we must have a good view of history, to be able to accurately review and study of national history and culture, to be able to extract from the history and culture of the system can China involved party summary on philosophy.

Arnold Joseph Toynbe (Arnold Joseph Toynbee, 1889 - 1975) was a famous British historian, he was known as "the greatest historian in modern times". Toynbee has a unique vision of history, and his 12 book, historical studies, tells the rise and decline of all the major nations in the world. It is called "the greatest achievement of modern scholars"". Because his uncle is a historian specializing in the history of economic development, also called Arnold Toynbe (Arnold Toynbee, 1852 - 1883), in order to distinguish between the two, people usually call the two person's full name, to avoid confusion.