风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
崩溃：社会如何选择失败或成功
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed
（英国版标题为《崩溃：社会如何选择失败或生存》）
2005 年，学术和科普作家 Jared Diamond 出版了一本书，其中作者首先定义了崩溃：“在相当大的区域内，在很长一段时间内，人类人口规模和/或政治/经济/社会复杂性的急剧下降。”然后，他回顾了历史上和史前社会崩溃的原因——特别是那些涉及环境变化、气候变化的影响、敌对邻居、贸易伙伴以及社会对上述四个挑战的反应的重大影响。它还考虑了为什么社会可能没有意识到问题，可能没有决定尝试解决方案，以及为什么尝试的解决方案可能会失败。
虽然本书的大部分内容都与这些历史文明的消亡有关，但戴蒙德还认为，人类在更大范围内面临着许多相同的问题，这些问题可能在不久的将来给世界许多人口带来灾难性的后果。
概要[编辑]
戴蒙德说，复活节岛是历史上孤立社会崩溃的最佳例子。
在序言中，贾雷德·戴蒙德用一段话总结了他的方法论：
本书采用比较方法来了解环境问题导致的社会崩溃。我的上一本书（《枪炮、病菌与钢铁：人类社会的命运》）将比较方法应用于相反的问题：过去 13,000 年里，不同大陆人类社会建设速度不同。本书关注的是崩溃而非建立，我比较了许多过去和现在的社会，这些社会在环境脆弱性、与邻国的关系、政治制度和其他被认为影响社会稳定性的“输入”变量方面存在差异。我研究的“输出”变量是崩溃或生存，以及崩溃发生时的崩溃形式。通过将输出变量与输入变量联系起来，我旨在找出可能的输入变量对崩溃的影响。[2]
过去社会的崩溃[编辑]
戴蒙德确定了导致崩溃的五个因素：气候变化、敌对邻国、重要贸易伙伴的崩溃、环境问题以及社会对上述四个因素的反应。
除了一个因素外，戴蒙德提到的导致崩溃的所有因素的根本问题都是人口过剩相对于环境的实际承载能力（而不是理想的理论承载能力）。一个与人口过剩无关的环境问题是意外或故意将非本地物种引入一个地区造成的有害影响。
戴蒙德还谈到了文化因素（价值观），例如格陵兰岛的挪威人似乎不愿意吃鱼。戴蒙德还指出，“声称环境破坏一定是所有崩溃的主要因素是荒谬的：苏联解体是一个现代的反例，公元前 146 年罗马摧毁迦太基是一个古老的例子。显然，单靠军事或经济因素就足以解决问题”。[3]
现代社会[编辑]
另请参阅：行星边界
他还列出了当今人类面临的十二个环境问题。前八个因素在历史上导致了过去社会的崩溃：
森林砍伐和栖息地破坏
土壤问题（侵蚀、盐碱化和土壤肥力丧失）
水管理问题
过度捕捞
引进物种对本地物种的影响
人口过剩
人均人口影响增加
此外，他说，四个新因素可能导致现在和未来社会的衰弱和崩溃：
人为气候变化
环境中毒素的积累
能源短缺
人类充分利用地球的光合作用能力
结论[编辑]
在最后一章中，他讨论了现代社会面临的环境问题，并解决了经常被提出来否定环境问题重要性的反对意见（“一句话反对意见”一节[4]）。在“进一步阅读”部分，他为那些问“作为个人，我能做什么？”的人提供了建议。[5]他还得出了如下结论：
事实上，从玛雅、阿纳萨齐、复活节岛民和其他古代社会的崩溃中可以学到的一个主要教训是，一个社会的急剧衰落可能在社会达到其人口、财富和权力的顶峰十年或二十年后才开始。……原因很简单：人口、财富、资源消耗和废物生产达到最大限度意味着环境影响达到最大限度，接近影响超过资源的极限。[6]
最后，他回答了这个问题：“如果我们要成功而不是失败，我们必须做出哪些选择？”通过识别
两个关键选择将过去失败的社会与幸存的社会区分开来：[7]
长期规划：“……勇于实践长期思考，在问题变得明显但尚未达到危机程度时做出大胆、勇敢、预见性的决策。”[7] 戴蒙德说，当精英领导人的短期利益与社会的长期利益发生冲突时，情况会尤其糟糕，而精英们却无法承受直接后果。[8]
愿意重新考虑核心价值观：“……勇于对价值观做出痛苦的决定。哪些曾经为社会服务的价值观可以在新的变化情况下继续保持？哪些珍贵的价值观必须被抛弃，用不同的方法取而代之？”[7]
书籍结构[编辑]
海地（左侧）和多米尼加共和国（右侧）之间的森林砍伐极限
中国工业工厂造成的空气污染
《崩溃》分为四个部分。
第一部分描述了美国蒙大拿州的环境，重点关注几个人的生活，以人性化的方式展现社会与环境之间的相互作用。[a]
第二部分描述了过去已经崩溃的社会。戴蒙德在考虑社会崩溃时使用了一个“框架”，该框架由可能影响社会发展的五组“因素”组成：环境破坏、气候变化、敌对邻居、失去贸易伙伴以及社会对环境问题的反应。崩溃社会中反复出现的一个问题是，结构造成了“当权者的短期利益与整个社会的长期利益之间的冲突”。
戴蒙德描述的社会是：
格陵兰岛挪威人（参见 Hvalsey Church）（气候变化、环境破坏、失去贸易伙伴、敌对邻居、不合理地不愿吃鱼、酋长只顾自己的短期利益）。
复活节岛（戴蒙德认为，该社会因环境破坏而彻底崩溃）
皮特凯恩岛的波利尼西亚人（环境破坏和贸易伙伴的丧失）
北美西南部的阿纳萨齐人（环境破坏和气候变化）
中美洲的玛雅人（环境破坏、气候变化和敌对邻居）
最后，戴蒙德讨论了过去的三个成功故事：
平等主义的太平洋小岛蒂科皮亚岛
平等主义的新几内亚中部农业的成功
德川时代分层的日本和德国的森林管理。
第三部分探讨现代社会，包括：
卢旺达因人口过剩而陷入种族灭绝
海地的失败与其在伊斯帕尼奥拉岛的邻国多米尼加共和国的相对成功相比
发展中国家中国面临的问题
第一世界国家澳大利亚面临的问题
第四部分通过考虑商业和全球化等主题来结束研究，并“为我们今天汲取实践教训”（第 22-23 页）。特别关注了圩田模式，这是荷兰社会应对挑战的一种方式，以及我们现在必须采取的“自上而下”和最重要的“自下而上”的方法，因为“我们的世界社会目前正走在一条不可持续的道路上”（第 498 页），以避免他在整本书中阐述并在最后一章中回顾的“12 个不可持续性问题”。这项调查的结果或许就是为什么戴蒙德仍然看到了“希望的迹象”，并对我们所有人的未来持“谨慎乐观”的态度。
第二版包含后记：吴哥的兴衰。
评论[编辑]
蒂姆·弗兰纳里在《科学》杂志上对《崩溃》给予了最高的评价，他写道：[10]
在策划这本书时，戴蒙德最初认为它只会涉及人类对环境的影响。相反，这本书的出现可以说是有史以来对衰老的人类文明最深入的研究。……世界上最具独创性的思想家之一选择在他的职业生涯达到顶峰时撰写这部巨著，这一事实本身就是一个有说服力的论点，表明必须认真对待《崩溃》。这可能是你读过的最重要的一本书。
《经济学人》的评论总体上是有利的，尽管评论者有两个不同意见。首先，评论者认为戴蒙德对未来不够乐观。其次，评论者声称《崩溃》包含一些错误的统计数据：例如，戴蒙德夸大了世界上饥饿人口的数量。[11] 不列颠哥伦比亚大学生态规划教授威廉·里斯写道，《崩溃》最重要的教训是，最能避免崩溃的社会是最灵活的社会，能够采取有利于自身生存的做法，避免不利的做法。此外，里斯写道，《崩溃》是朱利安·西蒙的追随者的“必要解药”，他
里斯对这一论断的解释如下：[12]
人类对生态圈的行为已经变得功能失调，现在可能威胁到我们自己的长期安全。真正的问题是，现代世界仍然受到危险的虚幻文化神话的影响。与隆伯格一样，大多数政府和国际机构似乎都认为，人类事业在某种程度上与环境“脱钩”，因此准备无限扩张。贾里德·戴蒙德的新书《崩溃》直面了这一矛盾。
由煤炭开采支持的智库公共事务研究所的詹妮弗·马罗哈西在《能源与环境》上发表了一篇批评性评论，特别是其中关于澳大利亚环境恶化的章节。马罗哈西声称，戴蒙德反映了一种流行的观点，这种观点得到了澳大利亚环保运动的支持，但没有证据支持，并认为他的许多说法很容易被推翻。[13]
马尔科姆·格拉德威尔在《纽约客》的评论中强调了戴蒙德的方法不同于传统历史学家，他关注的是环境问题而不是文化问题。[14]
戴蒙德对社会生存和生物生存的区分至关重要，因为我们常常将两者混为一谈，或者认为生物生存取决于我们文明价值观的力量……但事实是，我们可以遵纪守法、爱好和平、宽容、富有创造力、致力于自由、忠于自己的价值观，但仍然会做出生物自杀的行为。
虽然戴蒙德并不拒绝传统历史学家的方法，但根据格拉德威尔的说法，他的书生动地说明了这种方法的局限性。格拉德威尔以自己最近在俄勒冈州举行的投票倡议为例，证明了这一点，在该倡议中，财产权和其他自由问题得到了自由和健康的辩论，但严肃的生态问题却很少受到关注。
2006 年，该书入围了安万特科学图书奖，最终输给了大卫·博达尼斯的《电子宇宙》。[15]
批评[编辑]
贾里德·戴蒙德认为复活节岛社会完全由于环境破坏和文化僵化而孤立地崩溃，这一论点受到一些民族志学家和考古学家的质疑，他们认为欧洲殖民者携带的疾病和奴隶袭击[16]在 19 世纪摧毁了人口，其社会影响远大于环境恶化，而引入的动物（首先是老鼠，然后是绵羊）是导致岛上本土植物丧失的主要原因，直到 1930-1960 年间，岛上的本土植物才最接近森林砍伐。[17] 荷兰历史学家鲁特格·布雷格曼在《人类：充满希望的历史》（2019 年）一书中的一章强烈驳斥了戴蒙德对复活节岛崩溃的描述。[18]
《质疑崩溃》（剑桥大学出版社，2010 年）是 15 位考古学家、文化人类学家和历史学家撰写的论文集，对戴蒙德的《崩溃》和《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》等著作的各个方面进行了批评。[19] 这本书是 2006 年美国人类学协会会议的成果，该会议旨在回应戴蒙德的科普出版物所造成的错误信息，该协会决定召集多个研究领域的专家来报道戴蒙德的主张并揭穿它们。这本书包括戴蒙德所讨论的崩溃社会的土著人民的研究，以及这些社区的活生生的例子，以展示这本书的主题，即社会如何具有弹性并随着时间的推移转变为新的形式，而不是崩溃。[20][21]
电影[编辑]
2010 年，国家地理发布了根据戴蒙德的书改编的纪录片《崩溃》。[22]
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed
(titled Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive for the British edition)
A 2005 book by academic and popular science author Jared Diamond, in which the author first defines collapse: "a drastic decrease in human population size and/or political/economic/social complexity, over a considerable area, for an extended time." He then reviews the causes of historical and pre-historical instances of societal collapse—particularly those involving significant influences from environmental changes, the effects of climate change, hostile neighbors, trade partners, and the society's response to the foregoing four challenges. It also considers why societies might not perceive a problem, might not decide to attempt a solution, and why an attempted solution might fail.
While the bulk of the book is concerned with the demise of these historical civilizations, Diamond also argues that humanity collectively faces, on a much larger scale, many of the same issues, with possibly catastrophic near-future consequences to many of the world's populations.
In the prologue, Jared Diamond summarizes his methodology in one paragraph:
Diamond identifies five factors that contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbours, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and the society's response to the foregoing four factors.
The root problem in all but one of Diamond's factors leading to collapse is overpopulation relative to the practicable (as opposed to the ideal theoretical) carrying capacity of the environment. One environmental problem not related to overpopulation is the harmful effect of accidental or intentional introduction of non-native species to a region.
Diamond also writes about cultural factors (values), such as the apparent reluctance of the Greenland Norse to eat fish. Diamond also states that "it would be absurd to claim that environmental damage must be a major factor in all collapses: the collapse of the Soviet Union is a modern counter-example, and the destruction of Carthage by Rome in 146 BC is an ancient one. It's obviously true that military or economic factors alone may suffice".[3]
He also lists twelve environmental problems facing humankind today. The first eight have historically contributed to the collapse of past societies:
- Deforestation and habitat destruction
- Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility losses)
- Water management problems
- Overhunting
- Overfishing
- Effects of introduced species on native species
- Overpopulation
- Increased per-capita impact of people
Further, he says four new factors may contribute to the weakening and collapse of present and future societies:
- Anthropogenic climate change
- Buildup of toxins in the environment
- Energy shortages
- Full human use of the Earth's photosynthetic capacity
In the last chapter, he discusses environmental problems facing modern societies and addresses objections that are often given to dismiss the importance of environmental problems (section "One-liner objections"[4]). In the "Further readings" section, he gives suggestions to people who ask "What can I do as an individual?".[5] He also draws conclusions, such as:
Finally, he answers the question, "What are the choices that we must make if we are to succeed, and not to fail?" by identifying two crucial choices distinguishing the past societies that failed from those that survived:[7]
- Long-term planning: "... the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they have reached crisis proportions."[7] Diamond says it can be especially bad when the short-term interest of elite leaders conflicts with the long-term interests of the society, and the elite are insulated from the direct consequences.[8]
- Willingness to reconsider core values: "... the courage to make painful decisions about values. Which of the values that formerly served a society well can continue to be maintained under new changed circumstances? Which of these treasured values must instead be jettisoned and replaced with different approaches?"[7]
Collapse is divided into four parts.
Part One describes the environment of the US state of Montana, focusing on the lives of several individuals to put a human face on the interplay between society and the environment.[a]
Part Two describes past societies that have collapsed. Diamond uses a "framework" when considering the collapse of a society, consisting of five "sets of factors" that may affect what happens to a society: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and the society's responses to its environmental problems. A recurrent problem in collapsing societies is a structure that creates "a conflict between the short-term interests of those in power, and the long-term interests of the society as a whole."
The societies Diamond describes are:
- The Greenland Norse (cf. Hvalsey Church) (climate change, environmental damage, loss of trading partners, hostile neighbors, irrational reluctance to eat fish, chiefs looking after their short-term interests).
- Easter Island (a society that, Diamond contends, collapsed entirely due to environmental damage)
- The Polynesians of Pitcairn Island (environmental damage and loss of trading partners)
- The Anasazi of southwestern North America (environmental damage and climate change)
- The Maya of Central America (environmental damage, climate change, and hostile neighbors)
- Finally, Diamond discusses three past success stories:
- The tiny egalitarian Pacific island of Tikopia
- The agricultural success of egalitarian central New Guinea
- The forest management in stratified Japan of the Tokugawa-era, and in Germany.
Part Three examines modern societies, including:
- The collapse into genocide of Rwanda, caused in part by overpopulation
- The failure of Haiti compared with the relative success of its neighbor on Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic
- The problems facing a developing nation, China
- The problems facing a First World nation, Australia
Part Four concludes the study by considering such subjects as business and globalization, and "extracts practical lessons for us today" (pp. 22–23). Specific attention is given to the polder model as a way Dutch society has addressed its challenges and the "top-down" and most importantly "bottom-up" approaches that we must take now that "our world society is presently on a non-sustainable course" (p. 498) in order to avoid the "12 problems of non-sustainability" that he expounds throughout the book, and reviews in the final chapter. The results of this survey are perhaps why Diamond sees "signs of hope" nevertheless and arrives at a position of "cautious optimism" for all our futures.
The second edition contains an Afterword: Angkor's Rise and Fall.
Tim Flannery gave Collapse the highest praise in Science, writing:[10]
The Economist's review was generally favorable, although the reviewer had two disagreements. First, the reviewer felt Diamond was not optimistic enough about the future. Secondly, the reviewer claimed Collapse contains some erroneous statistics: for instance, Diamond purportedly overstated the number of starving people in the world.[11] University of British Columbia professor of ecological planning William Rees wrote that Collapse's most important lesson is that societies most able to avoid collapse are the ones that are most agile, able to adopt practices favorable to their own survival and avoid unfavorable ones. Moreover, Rees wrote that Collapse is "a necessary antidote" to followers of Julian Simon, such as Bjørn Lomborg who authored The Skeptical Environmentalist. Rees explained this assertion as follows:[12]
Jennifer Marohasy of the coal-mining backed think-tank Institute of Public Affairs wrote a critical review in Energy & Environment, in particular its chapter on Australia's environmental degradation. Marohasy claims that Diamond reflects a popular view that is reinforced by environmental campaigning in Australia, but is not supported by evidence, and argues that many of his claims are easily disproved.[13]
In his review in The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell highlights the way Diamond's approach differs from traditional historians by focusing on environmental issues rather than cultural questions.[14]
While Diamond does not reject the approach of traditional historians, his book, according to Gladwell, vividly illustrates the limitations of that approach. Gladwell demonstrates this with his own example of a recent ballot initiative in Oregon, where questions of property rights and other freedoms were subject to a free and healthy debate, but serious ecological questions were given scant attention.
In 2006 the book was shortlisted for The Aventis Prizes for Science Books award, eventually losing out to David Bodanis's Electric Universe.[15]
Jared Diamond's thesis that Easter Island society collapsed in isolation entirely due to environmental damage and cultural inflexibility is contested by some ethnographers and archaeologists, who argue that the introduction of diseases carried by European colonizers and slave raiding,[16] which devastated the population in the 19th century, had a much greater social impact than environmental decline, and that introduced animals—first rats and then sheep—were greatly responsible for the island's loss of native flora, which came closest to deforestation as late as 1930–1960.[17] Diamond's account of the Easter Island collapse is strongly refuted in a chapter of the book Humankind: A Hopeful History (2019) by Dutch historian Rutger Bregman.[18]
The book Questioning Collapse (Cambridge University Press, 2010) is a collection of essays by fifteen archaeologists, cultural anthropologists, and historians criticizing various aspects of Diamond's books Collapse and Guns, Germs and Steel.[19] The book was a result of 2006 meeting of the American Anthropological Association in response to the misinformation that Diamond's popular science publications were causing and the association decided to combine experts from multiple fields of research to cover the claims made in Diamond's and debunk them. The book includes research from indigenous peoples of the societies Diamond discussed as collapsed and also vignettes of living examples of those communities, in order to showcase the main theme of the book on how societies are resilient and change into new forms over time, rather than collapsing.[20][21]
In 2010, National Geographic released the documentary film Collapse based on Diamond's book.[22]
