Jayati Ghosh 印度民主还有新希望吗？

印度民主还有新希望吗？

JAYATI GHOSH 2024 年 6 月 14 日

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2810839/is-there-new-hope-for-indias-democracy-

选民将印度民主从边缘拉了回来。尽管总理纳伦德拉·莫迪连续第三次获胜，但他的执政党印度人民党 (BJP) 未能在议会下院 Lok Sabha 获得简单多数，这将迫使莫迪依靠几个不可预测的盟友来推动他的立法议程。
可以肯定的是，全国各地的结果各不相同。但人民党失去了关键州——包括长期被视为党派据点的北方邦——此前担心国内经济问题的选民拒绝了莫迪对极端印度民族主义和仇恨言论的日益关注。

这次选举提供了几个教训。首先，随着当今印度的现实变得太严峻而无法忽视，政府控制国内外叙事的能力显然正在减弱。

虽然国内精英和外部观察家都相信印度人民党宣称的经济繁荣，但印度所谓的繁荣只惠及了一小部分人。大多数印度人面临着就业前景恶化、实际工资停滞或下降以及基本商品价格大幅上涨的问题。民意调查显示，尽管试图用分裂言论分散选民的注意力，但这些问题仍然是选民最关心的问题。

印度人民党分裂政治议程的局限性也越来越明显。在整个竞选活动中，莫迪先生和他的政党公开煽动印度教徒的恐惧。

值得注意的是，大多数发表攻击性言论的选区都投票反对印度人民党。该党甚至输掉了阿约提亚，该党最近在一座百年历史的清真寺旧址上为罗摩神建造了一座巨大的寺庙，该清真寺于 1992 年被一群印度教暴徒拆毁。

尽管赢得了选举，但莫迪先生精心打造的无敌光环已被打破。他的狂妄自大让他失望了。即使在他自己的议会选区瓦拉纳西，他的胜算也缩水了近三分之二。

事实证明，通过屈从的新闻媒体和社交媒体平台传播虚假信息和宣传只能走这么远。直到最近，印度人民党还利用其权力控制电视、广播和印刷媒体，其 IT 部门通过庞大的 WhatsApp 群组网络和网络喷子“大军”主宰社交媒体。但尽管做出了这些努力，批评声音在数字平台上还是获得了关注，得到了独立媒体和年轻博主的支持。

过去几年，莫迪政府试图压制社交媒体上的批评，要求数字平台删除其不赞成的内容，并提出严厉的数字媒体法。但现在，印度人民党已经失去了多数席位，其压制网上异议的能力可能会受到阻碍。

当然，选举的影响将更加广泛。印度人民党现在必须依靠联盟伙伴，而这需要谈判和妥协的能力——莫迪和他的内政部长兼密友阿米特·沙阿并不具备这种技能。此外，印度人民党与全国民主联盟其他政党的关系从根本上讲是交易性的。

巧合的是，印度的历史与联合政府必然不利于经济的说法相矛盾。虽然联合政府可能更不稳定，但它们能让更多的声音被听到，使其比一党统治更民主、更具包容性。另一方面，集权独裁者更有可能犯下严重错误，比如莫迪 2016 年灾难性的废钞令或严厉的新冠疫情封锁，这两项措施都是在没有征求州政府或其他政党的意见的情况下实施的。

也许屈服于印度人民党要求的各个机构现在会重新发现它们真正的角色和责任，并自主运作。这包括印度人民党已经完全武器化的执法机构和税务机关，以及司法机构和媒体。这种转变甚至可能导致政府被迫解决困扰印度经济和社会的许多真正问题，而不是依赖宣传和制造分裂。

但印度的民主尚未走出困境。与印度人民党注入印度社会的宗教仇恨毒药作斗争可能需要很长时间。同样，被莫迪的独裁策略所损害的机构和组织也无法轻易恢复完全自治。随着莫迪的统治变得越来越不稳定，对法律、监管和行政程序的滥用可能会继续甚至加剧。

尽管如此，印度政治再次充满竞争（尽管混乱）。数亿印度人有理由感到宽慰。 ©2024 Project Syndicate

Is there new hope for India's democracy?

JAYATI GHOSH  14 JUN 2024

 

Voters have pulled Indian democracy back from the brink. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive term, the failure of his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure a simple majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, will force Mr Modi to rely on several unpredictable allies to promote his legislative agenda.

To be sure, the results varied across the country. But the BJP lost key states -- including Uttar Pradesh, long considered a party stronghold -- after voters concerned about domestic economic issues rejected Mr Modi's growing focus on extreme Hindu nationalism and hate-fuelled rhetoric.

The election offers several lessons. For starters, the government's ability to control the narrative, both within and outside the country, is clearly waning as the reality of today's India becomes too grim to ignore.

While domestic elites and external observers had bought into the BJP's claims of economic prosperity, India's supposed boom has benefited only a small segment of the population. Most Indians face declining job prospects, stagnant or falling real wages, and sharp increases in the prices of essential goods. Polls show that these issues were at the top of voters' minds despite efforts to distract them with divisive rhetoric.

The limits of the BJP's divisive political agenda are also becoming increasingly apparent. Throughout the election campaign, Mr Modi and his party openly stoked Hindu fears.

Notably, most constituencies where offensive speeches were delivered voted against the BJP. The party even lost Ayodhya, where it recently inaugurated a huge temple to the god Ram on the site of a centuries-old mosque demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992.

Despite winning the election, Mr Modi's carefully constructed aura of invincibility has been shattered. His megalomania has failed him. Even in his own parliamentary constituency of Varanasi, his margin of victory shrank by nearly two-thirds.

It turns out that disseminating disinformation and propaganda through subservient news outlets and social-media platforms can take one only so far. Until recently, the BJP used its power to control TV, radio, and print media, and its IT cell dominated social media through a vast network of WhatsApp groups and "armies" of online trolls. But despite these efforts, critical voices have gained traction on digital platforms, supported by independent media outlets and younger bloggers.

Over the past few years, Mr Modi's government has tried to suppress criticism on social media, demanding that digital platforms remove content it disapproved of and proposing draconian digital media laws. But now that the BJP has lost its majority, its ability to silence online dissent may be impeded.

The election's implications will, of course, be much broader. The BJP must now rely on coalition partners, which requires the ability to negotiate and compromise -- skills Mr Modi and Amit Shah, his minister of home affairs and close confidant, are not known for. Moreover, the BJP's relationship with the other parties in the National Democratic Alliance is fundamentally transactional.

Coincidentally, India's history contradicts the claim that a coalition government would necessarily be bad for the economy. While coalitions may be more unstable, they enable more voices to be heard, making them more democratic and inclusive than one-party rule. Centralising authoritarians, on the other hand, are more likely to make serious mistakes, such as Mr Modi's disastrous 2016 demonetisation or the harsh Covid lockdowns, both imposed without consulting state governments or other political parties.

Perhaps the various institutions that succumbed to the BJP's demands will now rediscover their true roles and responsibilities and operate autonomously. This includes the law-enforcement agencies and tax authorities that the BJP has thoroughly weaponised, as well as the judiciary and the media. This shift may even lead to a government that is forced to address the many genuine problems plaguing India's economy and society rather than relying on propaganda and fostering division.

But India's democracy is not out of the woods yet. Fighting the poison of religious hatred that the BJP has injected into Indian society could take a long time. Similarly, the agencies and institutions compromised by Mr Modi's authoritarian tactics cannot easily revert to full autonomy. And the abuse of legal, regulatory, and administrative processes may continue and even intensify as Mr Modi's rule becomes increasingly precarious.

Nevertheless, Indian politics is competitive (albeit chaotic) once again. Hundreds of millions of Indians have reason to feel relieved. ©2024 Project Syndicate