73 万亿美元从婴儿潮一代传到千禧一代

亿万富翁雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 表示，73 万亿美元的巨大财富转移不仅是从婴儿潮一代到千禧一代，也是从政府到你我

作者：BYPAIGE HAGY
https://fortune.com/2023/08/04/billionaire-ray-dalio-great-wealth-transfer-boomers-millennials-economy/

雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio），全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人。
EOIN NOONAN——网络峰会（来自 GETTY IMAGES）
代际财富转移即将到来，而且是我们所见过的规模最大的一次。 不仅如此，对冲基金亿万富翁雷·达利奥(Ray Dalio)还指出了为什么这对美国家庭来说是个好消息，对联邦政府来说是个坏消息，而且这可能与上周的历史性降级有关。

据估计，年迈的婴儿潮一代将向他们的继承人（其中许多是千禧一代）传承 73 万亿美元。 布里奇沃特联合公司创始人达利奥周三在 LinkedIn 上发布了一份冗长的时事通讯，他表示，如此巨大的财富在一定程度上是政府自行设计财富转移的结果。

达里奥认为，过去几年，政府一直在将财富从公共部门（以中央政府和央行的形式）和政府债券持有人转移到私营部门（以家庭和企业的形式）。 达利奥写道：“由于政府采取了这种协调一致的行动，家庭部门的资产负债表和损益表状况良好，而政府的状况却很糟糕。”

这种转移发生在2020年和2021年的“自由货币”时代，当时利率接近于零，美联储使用了一种称为量化宽松的策略来试图刺激消费者支出。 这是一个昂贵的策略。

周二，惠誉将美国主权信用评级从满分 AAA 下调至下一级别 AA+，震惊市场，理由是政府不断增加的债务和预期未来几年的财政恶化是降级的原因。 惠誉是三大信用评级公司中第二家取消最高评级的公司，另外还有标准普尔。

尽管达利奥没有直接提及信用评级行动，但他的语气类似。 “更简单地说，中央政府承担了更多的债务（因此资产负债表恶化），央行印制了更多的钱（导致通货膨胀上升）并购买了大量债务，以便将钱送到人们手中。 因此，私营部门目前的财务状况相对良好，”达利奥在他的时事通讯中写道。

最大的财富转移
婴儿潮一代出生于 1946 年至 1964 年期间，正值二战结束后出生率激增。 现在，最年轻的婴儿潮一代已六十出头，最年长的已接近八十岁。 他们的财富来自 20 世纪 80 年代初以来金融和房地产市场的增长，当时他们在二三十岁时购买了第一套住房并进行了第一次重大投资。

根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的经济数据库，自 1983 年以来，美国房屋的平均价格上涨了近 500%。 股票市场也出现了巨大的增长。 据《纽约时报》报道，自 1983 年初以来，标准普尔 500 指数已上涨超过 2,800%，与此同时指数基金成为美国中产阶级的热门投资。

随着这一代人开始死去，估计财富转移总额接近 85 万亿美元——超过了过去的任何财富转移。 婴儿潮一代的千禧一代儿童将受益最多——预计到 2045 年将有 73 万亿美元的传承——另外 12 万亿美元将捐赠给慈善机构。

相比之下，最伟大的一代，即出生于 1900 年至 1925 年并参加过第二次世界大战的人，向婴儿潮一代的孩子留下了 16 万亿美元。

尽管达利奥在他的 LinkedIn 时事通讯中没有特别提到婴儿潮一代，但他之前曾讨论过他所说的“大挤压”，这意味着最近宽松的财政政策的好处正在减弱。 当老年家庭离开劳动力市场并开始享受社会保障和医疗保险等退休福利时，他们将感受到最深刻的影响。 但至少从 2016 年起，达利奥多年来一直写道，其中许多承诺无法兑现。

“退休人员希望他们无需工作即可获得承诺的退休和医疗保健福利。 因此，所有这些人都期望在不生产任何东西的情况下获得巨大的消费能力，”达利奥在 2016 年 10 月的美联储演讲中说道。“与此同时，工人们期望获得与实际生产同等价值的消费能力。 他们正在给予。 他们都无法满足。”

换句话说，达利奥最近的时事通讯认为，政府越来越多地向自己施加巨大压力。 政府到底能承担多少？ 达利奥说，目前，它使经济保持良好状态，但他的文章和惠誉的降级提出了这样的问题：这种情况能持续多久。

Billionaire Ray Dalio says the $73 trillion great wealth transfer isn’t just from boomers to millennials—it’s from the government to you and me

By BYPAIGE HAGY
https://fortune.com/2023/08/04/billionaire-ray-dalio-great-wealth-transfer-boomers-millennials-economy/

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.
EOIN NOONAN—WEB SUMMIT VIA GETTY IMAGES
The generational wealth transfer is upon us, and it’s the largest one we’ve ever seen. Not only that, but the hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has identified why it’s great news for American households and terrible news for the federal government, and it likely has something to do with last week’s historic downgrade.

An estimated $73 trillion will be passed down from aging boomers to their heirs, many of whom are millennials. Such great wealth is in part the result of the government engineering a wealth transfer of its own, according to Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio, who posted a lengthy LinkedIn newsletter on Wednesday.

Over the past few years, the government has been moving wealth from the public sector (in the form of the central government and central bank) and government bondholders to the private sector (in the form of households and businesses), Dalio argues. “As a result of this coordinated government maneuver, the household sector’s balance sheets and income statements are in good shape, while the government’s are in bad shape,” Dalio wrote.   

This transfer took place during the era of “free money” in 2020 and 2021 when interest rates were near zero and the Fed used a strategy called quantitative easing to try to boost consumer spending. This was an expensive strategy.

On Tuesday, Fitch shocked markets by downgrading the United States’ sovereign credit rating from a perfect score of AAA to the next rung, AA+, citing the government’s mounting debt and expected fiscal deterioration in the coming years as reasons for the downgrade. Fitch is the second of the three major credit-rating firms to remove their highest rating, along with S&P.

Although Dalio did not directly address the credit rating action, he sounded a similar tune. “Said more simply, central governments took on a lot more debt (so their balance sheets deteriorated), and central banks printed a lot more money (which caused inflation to rise) and bought a lot of the debt to get money into the hands of the private sector which, as a result, is now in relatively good shape financially,” Dalio wrote in his newsletter.

The greatest wealth transfer of all 
The baby boomer generation was born between 1946 and 1964 during the birth rate spike following the end of World War II. Now, the youngest boomers are in their early sixties and the oldest are nearing their eighties. Their wealth comes from growth in the financial and housing markets since the early 1980s, when they were in their twenties and thirties, buying their first homes and making their first significant investments. 

Since 1983, the average price of a U.S. house has risen nearly 500%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis’ economic database. The stock market has also seen tremendous growth. The S&P 500 index has risen over 2,800% since the beginning of 1983, concurrent to the time index funds became a popular investment for middle-class Americans, the New York Times reported. 

As this generation begins to die, the total estimated wealth transfer amounts to nearly $85 trillion—eclipsing any from the past. Boomers’ millennial children stand to gain the most—$73 trillion is projected to be passed down through 2045—and an additional $12 trillion will be donated to charities.

In comparison, the Greatest Generation, those born between 1900 and 1925 and who fought in World War II, handed down $16 trillion to their boomer children. 

Although Dalio did not mention boomers specifically in his LinkedIn newsletter, he has previously discussed what he calls “a big squeeze,” meaning the benefits of loose fiscal policies of late are diminishing. Older households will feel the effect most profoundly as they leave the workforce and begin cashing in on retirement benefits like Social Security and Medicare. But many of these promises can’t be kept, Dalio has written for years, since at least 2016.

“Retirees expect that they will get the retirement and health care benefits that they were promised without working. So all of these people expect to get a huge amount of spending power without producing anything,” Dalio said during a speech at the Fed in October 2016. “At the same time, workers expect to get spending power that is equal in value to what they are giving. They all can’t be satisfied.”

In other words, Dalio’s recent newsletter argues that the government is increasingly taking the big squeeze onto itself. Just how much can the government shoulder? For now, Dalio says, it’s kept the economy in good shape, but his writing and Fitch’s downgrade raise the question of just how long that can last.