风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
中国经济脉搏：中国广阔腹地热闹非凡
专家：制造业不会大规模外包
GT本刊记者 2023 年 10 月 8 日
2023年8月11日，游客参观中国西南部重庆市的磁器口古镇。照片：CFP
中国经济正面临官方所说的“三重压力”，但中国广大的中西部地区经济活动明显加速。
刚刚结束的八天中秋国庆假期，消费爆发前十的城市中，中西部地区有八个。 根据周日发布的流行社交媒体和支付应用程序微信的数据，中国西南部的重庆市位居榜首，其次是四川省成都市。
成都接待游客 2587 万人次，同比增长 86.9%，比 2019 年增长 12.2%，旅游总收入达 237.8 亿元人民币（合 33.1 亿美元），比 2022 年增长 170.6%。
旅游业并不是中西部地区唯一强劲复苏的领域。 周日，满载印尼起酥油、越南红薯淀粉等110个集装箱的班列从广西壮族自治区钦州出发开往重庆，创下连接中国西部地区的西部陆海新通道的班列总数。 自2017年首列列车运营以来，已超过30,000人次。
据中央广播电视总台周六的数据，2023年上半年，走廊沿线省级地区通过新走廊的出口总额达到3500亿元人民币，同比增长40%。
在经济面临下行压力的背景下，尽管东部沿海地区仍然是世界第二大经济体的重要引擎，但中国欠发达的中西部地区的蓬勃发展引起了包括西方媒体在内的广泛关注。
《华尔街日报》在周六发表的一篇文章中报道称，尽管美国及其一些盟友正在寻求说服企业接受中国的替代方案，但企业仍然发现该国广阔的内陆地区拥有“巨大优势”。
报告称，虽然墨西哥、印度和越南等许多国家正在争夺中国的制造业“皇冠”，但工厂已大部分从中国沿海地区转移到成本仍然具有竞争力的内陆地区。 结果，该地区出现了出口繁荣，中西部15个省份的出口较2018年猛增94%。截至8月份的12个月内，这些省份的出口总额达到6300亿美元，远远超过印度、墨西哥 报告称，还有越南。
中国经济学家表示，这一趋势是最新证据，表明中国制造业仍处于全球领先地位，而且尽管面临需求萎缩、供应冲击和预期减弱的“三重压力”，中国经济仍具有显着的韧性。
上海财经大学教授奚俊阳表示，这表明“国民经济发展更加均衡、地区差距进一步缩小的趋势”，有利于中国经济长期可持续发展。 经济学，周日告诉《环球时报》。
然而，对于中国经济学家来说，中西部地区发生的事情并不令人意外，因为中国长期以来一直将国家战略和政策措施重点放在发展内陆地区，作为追求平衡发展的一部分。
“[制造业向内陆转移]的趋势实际上在十年前就已经开始了，”作为中国向中西部地区转移产业计划的一部分，同时让沿海地区专注于先进技术和创新，北京的田云- 一位经济学家周日告诉《环球时报》。
该规划有序实施，劳动密集型产业向内地转移，大量投资中西部地区基础设施升级改造。
经济学家表示，中西部地区的繁荣可能只是一个开始，这些地区仍有巨大的发展潜力，进而为国家的长期增长提供巨大的推动力。
“中西部地区大部分地方人均GDP仍处于1万美元以下，增长空间巨大。”田说，进一步加大基础设施投资、改善营商环境至关重要。 对于中西部地区。
Pulse on China’s Economy: China’s vast hinterland sees bustling activity
Tourists visit Ciqikou ancient town in Southwest China's Chongqing Municipality on August 11, 2023. Photo: CFP
The Chinese economy is facing what officials call "triple pressures," but the country's vast central and western regions are seeing a marked acceleration in activity.During the just concluded eight-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, among the top 10 cities that saw explosive consumption, eight were in the central and western regions. Southwest China's Chongqing city topped the list, followed by Chengdu city, Sichuan Province, according to data from WeChat, a popular social media and payment app released on Sunday.
Chengdu received 25.87 million visitors, up 86.9 percent year-on-year and 12.2 percent higher than 2019 levels, which helped generate a total of 23.78 billion yuan ($3.31 billion) in tourism revenue, up 170.6 percent from 2022.
Tourism is hardly the sole area in which the central and western regions see robust recovery. On Sunday, as a train loaded with 110 containers of goods including Indonesian shortening and Vietnamese sweet potato starch departed from Qinzhou, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, for Chongqing, the total number of trains through the new western land-sea corridor connecting China's western region with Southeast Asia, has exceeded 30,000 since the first train operated in 2017.
In the first half of 2023, provincial-level regions along the corridor saw combined exports of 350 billion yuan via the new corridor, up 40 percent year-on-year, according to China Media Group on Saturday.
Against the backdrop of downward pressure for the economy, the booming activity in China's less-developed central and western regions has gained much attention, including from the Western media, even though eastern coastal regions remain the powerhouses of the world's second-largest economy.
In an article published on Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported that even as the US and some of its allies are seeking to persuade businesses to embrace alternatives to China, companies are still finding the country's vast interior holds "big advantages."
While many countries such as Mexico, India and Vietnam are vying for China's manufacturing "crown," factories have largely shifted from China's coastal regions to the interior, where costs remain competitive, according to the report. As a result, the region has seen an export boom, with exports from the 15 central and western provinces soaring 94 percent from 2018. In the 12 months through August, these provinces saw combined exports of $630 billion, vastly surpassing those of India, Mexico and Vietnam, the report said.
The trend is the latest evidence that China's manufacturing sector remains at the top worldwide and the Chinese economy is remarkably resilient despite the "triple pressures" - shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, Chinese economists said.
This shows "the trend for the national economy in which development will be increasingly balanced and gaps among regions will further diminish," which helps ensure long-term sustainable development for the Chinese economy, Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Yet, for Chinese economists, what's happening in the central and western regions comes as no surprise, as China has long been focused on developing the interior with national strategies and policy measures, as part of its pursuit of balanced development.
"The trend of [manufacturing capacity shifting inland] actually started a decade ago," as part of China's plan to transfer industries toward the central and western regions, while letting the coastal regions focus on advanced technologies and innovation, Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times on Sunday.
The plan has been carried out in an orderly way, with the relocation of labor-intensive industries to the interiror and massive investment in the upgrading of infrastructure in the central and western regions.
Still, the bustling activity in the central and western region may just be the beginning, as there is still enormous potential for the regions to further develop, which in turn offers a huge boost for the country's long-term growth, the economists said.
"The per capita GDP in most places in the central and western regions is still $10,000 or lower, so there is a huge room for the region's growth," Tian said, adding that further investment in infrastructure and improvement in the business environment will be crucial for the central and western regions.
