金融评论：美国股市三四月波动之大的原因

为什么三四月股市波动如此之大？

 

高盛将最近数月股票市场的波动归咎于妈妈爸爸散户投资者

 

The U.S. stock market has seen volatility rear up in 2018. There have been a number of causes often cited for the recent bout of turbulence, including concerns over inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the first-quarter earnings season, but one of Wall Street’s most prominent investment banks fingers one key culprit: Main Street.

 

Citing both their outsize ownership of stocks and a surge in recent trading activity, Goldman attributed the recent whipsawing trading in the equity market to average investors, writing that retail investors—as opposed to institutional ones—“appear to have driven much of the U.S. equity market turbulence in late March and April.”

 

While retail investors individually control small amounts of money relative to portfolio managers or other professional market participants, their collective influence in the market is sizable. Per Goldman’s data, households directly own 36% of the $46 trillion U.S. equity market, more than any other type of owner, and their share rises to more than 50% if you include indirect ownership through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. (Mutual funds own 24% of U.S. stocks, while ETFs own 6%.)

 

（marketwatch)

 

“Money Talk” 的主持人Jim Cramer 也在说目前股市非常不理性，竟然用了“stupid”这个字眼来形容。

 

"There are some markets where it pays to be smart, to really think things through," he said. "This market is not one of them. This is a straightforward market that's as dumb as a bag of hammers, and if you want to beat the averages here, the trick is you can't overthink anything."

 

"This market has become really difficult because it doesn't seem to know how to calculate an event," the "Mad Money" host said. "It doesn't know how to discount news. It doesn't know how to game the president. It's ridiculous, but in all my years of investing and trading, I don't think I've ever seen buyers and sellers be faked out so often."

 

Jim Cramer 给投资者的这个建议很合理，强调discipline和conviction 的重要性. 金融研究的确发现 Investors often overreact to good news and bad news, behave irrationally.

 

"Let me give you my bottom line: this is a market made for people who feel, not people who think. I don't want you to let your emotions rule. I think if you stay disciplined about your conviction, you can run out these inanities. If you don't have it, you'll be shaken out time and time again," he warned. "So find a stock you like, wait for the selloff, then buy. And whatever you do, don't try to out-think the action."

 

（CNBC)

 

我同意他对目前经济股市形势的分析：

 

“We like strength in employment because there's no real wage inflation. We like strength in commodities because it means the world's not slowing down. And we like strength in consumer spending like we heard last night in Disney (DIS) and we have been hearing for weeks now in earnings season," 

 

“But ... weakening job growth and higher oil prices are two factors that deserve to be priced into stocks — they aren't being priced in right now.

 

There are way too many people who remember February when the market fell apart for many of the things that are driving it now and I think those sellers will materialize as we go higher."

 

（TheStreet)