为什么减仓？

个人认为，美国股市还是在大牛市，

但天有不测之风云。市场随时都会翻脸。投资理财最重要的还是风险控制。

历史的经验值的注意。

Based on historical analysis, when the SP 500 CAPE ratio has been at or above 37, similar to the current level of 38.6，?the average returns have been negative over the next one, two, and three years.
According to historical data, the likely returns are:
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* 1 year: approximately -3%

?* 2 years: approximately -12%

?* 3 years: approximately -14%

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当然，现在有Al，CAPE可能会比平均高一些。

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预测股市是一件十分困难的事情，

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但CAPE目前还是预测股市长期走向下最准确的工具之一。

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前几天减了点仓位：也算是屁股决定立场吧。

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YMYD

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