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【华尔街信贷危机】我们是怎样走到这一步的(上)

(2008-10-01 22:48:54) 下一个
当你手里握著十万美金,在经济萧条股市徘徊房市低落时,你大概不会有太多选择,除了将现金存入银行。但是,当经济蓬勃,通货膨胀,股市或房市牛气冲天的时候,你又会怎么做呢?不管你怎么做,我敢保证,你一定会觉得你手里的十万美金是一只很烫手的 "山芋"。

今天在华尔街发生的信贷危机 (Credit crunch),对美国经济的影响是巨大的,以至于财政部长 Paulson,联储局主席 Bernanke 提出价值高达七千亿 (700 Billion) 美金的 "救赎 (bailout)" 方案。

700 Billion 是个什么样的概念呢?如果你以为伊拉克战争耗资巨大,它每个月的消费是 10 billion。换句话说,700 billion 可以支持伊拉克战争打六年!

仔细观察我们是怎样一步一步走入这一危机的,是一件非常有意思的事情。

背景一:Regulation and Deregulation

中国建国初期一位国家领导人曾抱怨说,中国经济是 "一抓就死,一放就乱",那还是社会主义中国。可是,资本主义的美国何尝不是这样呢?Deregulation 前的美国经济,也是 "死气沉沉"。

资本主义自由竞争的归宿是吞并和垄断 (Monopoly)。垄断导致非法价格控制 (Illegal price fixing),损害消费者的权益。在反托拉斯法案 (Sherman Antitrust Act) 签署通过前后,各类旨在保护和规范企业的法案也逐步建立。在此背景下联邦政府分门别类设立了各种管理部门,被授权管理各类工商业 (所谓大政府概念)。

这些政府部门随之建立起各种规章制度和管理措施用来规范企业界。但是到后来,这些条款竟逐渐沦为私营企业的 "保护伞"。这是因为规章制度和管理措施象是 "层层关卡",不利于新公司进入 (Entrance bars were set very high),由此不利于同行企业间的竞争。最典型的就是汽车工业,经过剧烈的竞争和吞并,只有几家大公司生存下来。这样的结果不仅损伤了消费者的权益,更不利于新产品的推出 (试想一下,假如没有日本车进入美国市场,我们会开什么样的车子)。

Deregulation 是从一九七零年开始到两千年告一段落。在本质上它是不同于 Liberalization 的。Deregulation 主张一併消除政府对各类工商业的管理和限制,而 Liberalization 仅主张减少和简化政府对经济活动的管理和限制。

由于 Deregulation,entrance bars were lowed,新来的投资者可以加入竞争。比如美国航空业,到七零年代,仅由几家大旧航空公司包揽,机票价格昂贵。这样的结果不利于消费者的权益,也限制了航空业的发展。随着航空业的 Deregulation,新出现的航空公司有的价格低廉,有的服务优良,有的快速捷便。与之相比,一些老的航空公司,如 Pan American World Airways (Pan Am) 等,在竞争中因经营不善而宣告破产。同时也出现了一批新的航空业巨头,如西北航空,联合航空等。

另举一例是通讯业的 MCI (后成为 WorldCom,因经营不善而破产),MCI 的建立,打破了 AT&T 的垄断,极大地压低了 AT&T 控制的长途电话费用。记得好多年以前,北加州 101 高速公路旁,曾设立过一张电子牌,上面写着 "Because of MCI, consumers have saved $XXXX" (天文数字)。

可见,Deregulation 对三十多年来美国经济的成长及消费者权益的保护都起到了促进作用,它对美国经济发展的贡献是不可抹杀的。而在 Deregulation 的过程中,共和党和民主党两党都曾经积极的参与和推动过。里根总统是共和党内的重要推手之一。

当然,一味的 Deregulation,不加管束也会造成灾难,比如我们目前面临的信贷危机。


背景二:金融业的松绑与违规

一九二九年开始的经济大萧条 (Great Depression) 起始于股市暴跌,经过四年的调整,在罗斯福总统主持下,美国国会同过了 "Glass-Steagall Act (法案)"。对银行的服务业务做规范同时,将商业银行和投资银行进行了区隔。该法案奠定了以后几十年美国金融业的相对稳定。

笔者在八十年代中期来到美国,还记得那时候美国的银行是不跨州的。同时,商业银行提供的服务项目以储蓄和借贷,以及支票帐户管理为主。商业银行不从事股票买卖,客户保险以及债卷发放等业务。

银行界 Deregulation 的推行,在八十年代中曾发生过 S&L Crisis (Small Saving and Loan Association Crisis。另文详述,金笔注)。直接原因是里根政府对 Saving and Loan (小型的储蓄借贷银行) deregulation,允许它们可以对个体小户的小额存款进行无约束的投资。无约束的投资导致很多银行主付出了惨重的代价,有的是误投,有的是被欺诈,也有的是自己欺诈。总之,最后由于经济的下滑,很多投资到最后颗粒无收,导致很多储蓄借贷银行债台高筑。由于储蓄借贷银行不象是正规的商业银行有 FDIC 的存款担保,每一家储蓄借贷银行破产就意味这个体储户的钱收不回来。这造成民间极大的恐慌和骚动。

到后来由国会出面,将 S&L 亏损的钱全部承担下来,而纳税人为此付出了1250 亿美金的天价 (在今天,这个价钱很可能是 2000 亿)。

当然,联邦对商业银行的规范一直还是有的。这些规范中还包括规定银行在投放贷款时,高挡风险,中挡风险和低挡风险的贷款需要有一定的比例。联储局,地方政府会定期检查银行的贷款记录,如果银行的高档风险贷款超出一定比例就是违规。

时间到了九十年代中,世界进入 "全球化" 的进程中。欧洲诸国,包括瑞士,的一些集金融保险投资于一身的巨大商业公司,如 UBS,进入美国市场。美国的金融业巨头,如 Citicorp,Chase 等商业银行在跟这些欧洲公司的竞争中发现,因为它们只能从事商业或个体借贷,不能涉入投资和保险业务,在与外国公司的竞争中处于不利地位。

当 Citicorp 在试图收购 Traveller's Group 受阻后,他们开始在国会游说,试图改变立法。终于,一九九九年在共和党人的推动下,克林顿总统签署了 "Gramm-Leach-Blikey Act"。该法案除了允许商业银行从事投资银行 (股票买卖) 的活动外,还允许银行向客户销售 Mortgage 衍生产品,收买保险,发行债卷,当做期货 (或期权) 进行买卖 (Under NO regulation!!!)。同时,由于克林顿总统的坚持,法案还 "要求银行向少数族裔和农业人士等提供贷款" 等指导性词语。

Gramm-Leach-Blikey 法案的实施,可以说为此次信贷危机埋下了祸种。

(在 Gramm-Leach-Blikey 法案签署前夕,克林顿的财政部长 Robert Rubin 辞职,一年后转任 Citigroup 的 Chairman of the Executive Committee。而在法案签署后,共和党的参议员 Phil Gramm 离开了华盛顿,担任 UBS Investment Bank 的 Vice Chairman)

所以,所谓 Deregulation,并不仅仅是共和党人在推动,民主党的克林顿总统同样起了作用。

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want_try 回复 悄悄话 修了高速公路, 必有惨烈车祸? 问题可能是驾驶者和警察. 这都发生在布屎任内.
武胜 回复 悄悄话 金融危机走到这一步两党都有责任,但共和党是主要推动者. Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act就是共和党提出的,它松绑商业银行投资,令它们做得更大,鼓动风险投资. 克林顿向共和党做过很多妥协,所谓比较靠中间的路线,现在共和党人又拿这种妥协为例来推卸责任,似乎不大地道.
gq 回复 悄悄话 231名美国经济学家致信国会,反对政府救市
作者:231名经济学家
2008-10-02 02:16:54
发表评论 [0] 推荐本文 正体

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  致众议院议长与参议院议长:

  作为经济学家,我们要向国会表达:对于财政部长保尔森所提出的金融危机应对计划,我们深感忧虑。我们清楚地知道当前金融形势有多么困难,我们也认为需要采取果敢行动才能确保金融体系继续运转。然而,我们认为目前提出的计划存在三个致命的缺陷:

  1.不公平。该计划是在用纳税人的钱补贴投资者。那些为了利益铤而走险的投资者也必须承受损失才行。并非每一桩投资失败都会引发系统性风险。即使不救援那些自己决策失误的投资者和机构,政府也能确保金融业正常运行,向可信的借款者发放新的贷款。

  2.含糊不清。该计划拟议成立一个新机构,但是其使命和监督机制都不清楚。如果要纳税人从陷入困境的卖家手中购买缺乏流动性和透明度的资产,那么这些购买交易的条款、时机和操作方法都必须是事先彻底透明、事后得到妥善监督的。

  3.长期效应堪忧。假如该计划投入实施,其效应将会持续一代人的时间。尽管最近麻烦重重,美国的富有活力和创新精神的私人资本市场毕竟为这个国家创造了前所未有的繁荣。为了平息短期干扰而从根本上削弱那些市场是极其短视的做法。

  由于这些原因,我们呼吁国会不要匆忙决策,要进行适当的听证,仔细考虑什么才是正确的行动路径,为美国金融业和美国经济的未来作出明智的决定。

公开信英文版原文:

(This letter was sent to Congress on Wed Sept 24 2008 regarding the Treasury plan as outlined on that date. It does not reflect all signatories views on subesquent plans or modifications of the bill)

To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:

As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.



Signed (updated at 9/27/2008 6:00PM CT)

Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Ackerberg Daniel (UCLA)
Adler Michael (Columbia University)
Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)
Ales Laurence (Carnegie Mellon University)
Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)
Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)
Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)
Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)
Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)
Barry Brian (University of Chicago)
Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana)
Becker Charles M. (Duke University)
Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)
Beim David (Columbia University)
Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)
Bisin Alberto (New York University)
Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)
Blank Emily (Howard University)
Boldrin Michele (Washington University)
Bollinger, Christopher R. (University of Kentucky)
Bossi, Luca (University of Miami)
Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)
Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Buera Francisco J.(UCLA)
Cabral Luis (New York University)
Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)
Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)
Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)
Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)
Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)
Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)
Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)
Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)
Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)
Clementi, Gian Luca (New York University)
Cochrane John (University of Chicago)
Coleman John (Duke University)
Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)
Cooley, Thomas (New York University)
Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)
Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)
Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)
Darity, William (Duke University)
Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)
De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)
Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)
Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)
Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)
Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)
Fair Ray (Yale University)
Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)
Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)
Fernandez, Raquel (New York University)
Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)
Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)
Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)
Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)
Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)
Fuchs William (University of Chicago)
Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)
Gabaix Xavier (New York University)
Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)
Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)
Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)
Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)
Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)
Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)
Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)
Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)
Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Gregory, Karl D. (Oakland University)
Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)
Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)
Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)
Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)
Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)
Harris Milton (University of Chicago)
Hart Oliver (Harvard University)
Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)
Heaton John (University of Chicago)
Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)
Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)
Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)
Hite Gailen (Columbia University)
Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)
Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)
Hollifield Burton (Carnegie Mellon University)
Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)
Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)
Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)
Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)
Israel Ronen (London Business School)
Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)
Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)
Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)
Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)
Jovanovic Boyan (New York University)
Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)
Kahn Matthew (UCLA)
Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)
Karaivanov Alexander (Simon Fraser University)
Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)
Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)
Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)
Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)
Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)
Klenow Pete (Stanford University)
Koch Paul (University of Kansas)
Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)
Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)
Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)
Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)
Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)
Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)
Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)
Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)
Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)
Letson David (University of Miami)
Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)
Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)
Levine David K.(Washington University)
Levy David M. (George Mason University)
Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)
Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)
Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Ludvigson, Sydney C. (New York University)
Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)
Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)
Martin Ian (Stanford University)
Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)
Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)
McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)
Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)
Meeropol, Michael (Western New England College)
Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)
Mian Atif (University of Chicago)
Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)
Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)
Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)
Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)
Moeller, Thomas (Texas Christian University)
Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)
Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)
Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)
Morse Adair (University of Chicago)
Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)
Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)
Moskowitz, Tobias J. (University of Chicago)
Munger Michael C. (Duke University)
Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)
Nair Harikesh (Stanford University)
Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)
Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)
Ohanian Lee (UCLA)
Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)
Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)
Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)
Paul Evans (Ohio State University)
Pearce David (New York University)
Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)
Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)
Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)
Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)
Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)
Pippenger, Michael K. (University of Alaska)
Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)
Platt Brennan C. (Brigham Young University)
Rampini Adriano (Duke University)
Ray, Debraj (New York University)
Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)
Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)
Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)
Rizzo, Mario (New York University)
Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)
Robinson David (Duke University)
Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)
Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)
Roussanov Nikolai (University of Pennsylvania)
Routledge Bryan R. (Carnegie Mellon University)
Ruud Paul (Vassar College)
Safford Sean (University of Chicago)
Samaniego Roberto (George Washington University)
Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)
Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)
Schaniel William C. (University of West Georgia)
Scharfstein David (Harvard University)
Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)
Seru Amit (University of Chicago)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)
Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)
Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)
Smith David C. (University of Virginia)
Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)
Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)
Spatt Chester (Carnegie Mellon University)
Spear Stephen (Carnegie Mellon University)
Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)
Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)
Strahan Philip (Boston College)
Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)
Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)
Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)
Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)
Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)
Troske Kenneth (University of Kentucky)
Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)
Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)
Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)
Vargas Hernan (University of Phoenix)
Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)
Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)
Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)
Walker Douglas O. (Regent University)
Walker, Todd (Indiana University)
Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)
Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)
Witte Mark (Northwestern University)
Wolfenzon, Daniel (Columbia University)
Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)
Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)
Wu Yangru (Rutgers University)
Yue Vivian Z. (New York University)
Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)
Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)

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wunderlust 回复 悄悄话 谢扫盲,很有意思
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