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最近的几件事情将原本阳光灿烂的奥巴马总统之路罩下不少阴影，如果他不能走到尽头，毁了他梦想的不是别人，正是他自己。
随着民主党全国代表大会的闭幕，马侃立即确立副总统候选人是阿拉斯加州的州长佩琳女士，这一妙着使奥巴马的总统候选人就职演说退热，他头上的光环也迅速褪色。在可预见的将来，奥的人气可能会下滑。从下面这几件事情的发展看，奥巴马不仅不是民主党人所期望的所谓 "超级政治家"，其实他还很平庸。
第一件事情是在石油 "近海钻探" 问题上，他没有表现出优秀政治家的坚忍品格和历练，他没有顶住压力坚持反对近海钻探。
在油价还高涨的时候，马侃极力推销他的近海钻探主张，而奥巴马一开始即反对近海钻探，但随着老马的广告咄咄逼人地谴责奥巴马既反对近海钻探也反对建立核电站时，奥巴马垮了下来，转而支持 "有限度" 近海钻探。此一举让人们看出，在压力下，奥巴马的 "见风使舵" 品格。
第二件事情是在选民主党全国代表大会的日期上，奥巴马的决定过于注重满足自己的成就感，将个人里程碑摆在了民主党和国家的利益之上。
共和，民主两党选定全国代表大会的日期，延后举行者具有后发制人的效果。也就是说，后举行大会的政党和候选人有随机应变的好处。在选择民主党全国代表大会日期的问题上，共和党人猜准奥巴马会选择金恩博士的生日作为他接受民主党任命，代表民主党出马角逐美国总统大位的日子。而奥巴马也 "当仁不让" 的决定先期举行，放弃后发制人的优势，表现出奥巴马过于注重满足他个人的成就感。结果是处于劣势的共和党和马侃可以 "后发制人"。奥巴马的这一举动颇有点象 "count the chickens before they are hatched" 的味道 (过早乐观)，让人看到他的政治智慧并不高超。
第三件事情是拒绝跟得到一千八百万民主党人投票支持的希拉丽·克林顿合作，共同成为这一届的民主党正副总统候选人。奥巴马不顾近半数民主党员的期望，偏执的挑选白登为副手，其后果很可能就是毁了奥巴马的总统之梦想。
其实奥巴马在这个问题上是可以表现出他真的是与众不同的政治家，站在更高的层次上呼吁为了全党团结，邀请希拉丽·克林顿作他的竞选伙伴，如果他那样做那他就真是改变了 (changed) 的政治家。否则，如果他连同党的希拉丽·克林顿都不能合作，如何指望他跟共和党人合作呢？
下图是金笔前些日子收集的每日跟踪民调资料，我们可以看出在奥巴马公布副总统候选人前他小幅领先对手共和党的马侃。如八月十八日至二十四日间，由 USA Today/Gallup，Hotline/FD 和 ABC News/Washington Post 举行的三次民调中，奥巴马在支持度上小幅领先马侃 3 至 4 个百分点。随着奥巴马公布白登是副总统候选人后，八月二十四日至二十六日间举行的三次民调显示 (Gallup Tracking， Rasmussen Tracking 以及 CNN) 奥巴马和马侃打成了平手!
为什么奥巴马挑选拜登做副手后民调不升反降呢？难道不值得深思吗？
第二个图是昨天收集的资料。每日跟踪民调显示随着民主党全国代表大会结束后，在八月二十八至三十日的 Gallup Tracking Poll 显示奥巴马以四十八领先马侃的四十二，但随着马侃任命佩琳州长作竞选伙伴后，CNN 的民调显示两者的支持率又一次持平!
资料来源：
RealClearPolitics.com
MCCAIN
0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA
28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN
15% (no change)
OBAMA
39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that 'Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.')
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN
(no changes)
Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)
Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN
- 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA
Restore the inheritance tax
Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA
New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren't high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least....New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!
但是，等着答辫吧。如果美国人真的铁着心往下流走再次将共和党选上，那么这大帝国的末路就畅开了。