转帖： 股票牛市尚未衰亡也

Opinion: The bull market in stocks is not dead

"Meisels expects things to get worse before they get better.

He says Aug. 25 represented “a” but not “the” selling climax. He expects the ultimate low between 1,850 and 1,875 to show up just in time for Halloween, and it will scare the heck out of investors.

After that, Meisels looks for clear sailing at least through 2016, as presidential-election years are usually pretty good for stocks. He also noted that the recent Investors Intelligence survey showed the lowest level of bullishness among investment advisers since the bull market began. That’s a contrarian signal.

He said that, since 2009, stocks rallied by at least 32% after previous sell-offs of the current magnitude. That would get the S&P 500 to almost 2,500, by my own rough calculations.

Meisels won’t give a target level, nor will he say how long he expects the bull market to last, but he thinks it has a 75% chance of advancing to its fifth and final leg.

。。。

So Meisels cautions that if the market retests its lows, the S&P 500 will have to stay above support in the mid-1800s. (Critical support for the Dow lies near the August low of 15,666.)

“Any lower, and the bull’s case starts to unravel,” he wrote. “If it breaks below 1,875-1,850, we’ll go toward 1,700,” he told me.

That would be the 20% decline some people say signifies a bear market, and indeed Meisels thinks the next bear will be of the milder variety — no 2000 or 2007. But who really knows?"