胶老爷子随笔
信笔写去，不吐不快，漫无目标，写到哪儿算哪儿。。。
正文
论坛上见到英文写的有关科技，经济发展的博客，一时兴起， 也用英文， 也以科技，经济发展为题材，瞎聊几句。。。
“May you live in interesting times!” as the proverb goes. So, are we living in an interesting time now? Perhaps, given everything taking place in the world these days! However, I am going to focus on one thing and one thing only: the technology development of the last couple of decades… The modern technology development has certainly made our lives more interesting, or more challenging, as a recent blog on this forum pointed out.
Someone (I don't remember who) said: History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. So…, should we ask: does the rapid technology development of the last few decades represent a moment of the "rhythm"? Does it rhyme the late 18th to early 19th centuries, the period of the so-called Industrial Revolution, which revolutionized the manufacturing process and generated tremendous wealth? Probably. One thing for sure, this revolution created unprecedented uncertainties in every aspect of daily lives of ordinary people. It had also stunned virtually everyone in the circle of economics at that time. (After all, this may not be a surprise, given that the economics is widely seen as the “dismal” science. Economists do an abysmal job of forecasting what is going to happen. They usually end up just interpreting what have already happened. I don’t want to sound like a mean person bashing economists. So, let’s borrow a line from a well-known economist, Ben Bernanke: "Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong. About the future, not so much." While this is hilarious, it is sadly true!) However, the uncertainties the Industrial Revolution created had also carried enormous opportunities for the society as a whole. It is certainly a blessing for ordinary people, not a condemn, as Robert E. Lucas put it: "For the first time in history, the living standards of the masses of ordinary people have begun to undergo sustained growth.” And he continued to say: “Nothing remotely like this economic behavior is mentioned by the classical economists, even as a theoretical possibility."
Enough said about the history. Let’s return to our present days. Does the modern day technology development, or “automation” as the blog referred to, create economic uncertainties for ordinary people (or more precisely the employees, the human resources as defined by the business)? Absolutely! However, in free market economies, it also creates huge opportunities for the ordinary people as well, just like the Industrial Revolution did over 200 years ago. Relying on the economists to forecast what would happen in the society under the impact of new technology, and then based on that forecast to adjust or balance the delicate dynamics between the jobs lost and the jobs created, is a losing game, let alone this “balancing” game would be performed by the bureaucrats in the governments. We all know too well where that would lead us to. Of course, the role of the government in an economy is indispensable. However, how to define that role is a challenge, at least. As a matter of fact, the role of government in economy is the debate of centuries, if not millenniums. Nobody has a definite answer. Ironically, I particularly like the analogy made by a Chinese communist veteran, Chen Yun: The Bird Cage. That is: In an economy, the government should provide the function like a bird cage, so the “birds”, i.e. the businesses, can fly freely within the cage, but not allowed to get out. I think a “cage” is what the government should provide but be limited to providing the cage only. It would be on a dangerous slippery slope should the government start to become a “bird” in the cage.
“May you live in interesting times!” as the proverb goes. So, are we living in an interesting time now? Perhaps, given everything taking place in the world these days! However, I am going to focus on one thing and one thing only: the technology development of the last couple of decades… The modern technology development has certainly made our lives more interesting, or more challenging, as a recent blog on this forum pointed out.
Someone (I don't remember who) said: History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. So…, should we ask: does the rapid technology development of the last few decades represent a moment of the "rhythm"? Does it rhyme the late 18th to early 19th centuries, the period of the so-called Industrial Revolution, which revolutionized the manufacturing process and generated tremendous wealth? Probably. One thing for sure, this revolution created unprecedented uncertainties in every aspect of daily lives of ordinary people. It had also stunned virtually everyone in the circle of economics at that time. (After all, this may not be a surprise, given that the economics is widely seen as the “dismal” science. Economists do an abysmal job of forecasting what is going to happen. They usually end up just interpreting what have already happened. I don’t want to sound like a mean person bashing economists. So, let’s borrow a line from a well-known economist, Ben Bernanke: "Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong. About the future, not so much." While this is hilarious, it is sadly true!) However, the uncertainties the Industrial Revolution created had also carried enormous opportunities for the society as a whole. It is certainly a blessing for ordinary people, not a condemn, as Robert E. Lucas put it: "For the first time in history, the living standards of the masses of ordinary people have begun to undergo sustained growth.” And he continued to say: “Nothing remotely like this economic behavior is mentioned by the classical economists, even as a theoretical possibility."
Enough said about the history. Let’s return to our present days. Does the modern day technology development, or “automation” as the blog referred to, create economic uncertainties for ordinary people (or more precisely the employees, the human resources as defined by the business)? Absolutely! However, in free market economies, it also creates huge opportunities for the ordinary people as well, just like the Industrial Revolution did over 200 years ago. Relying on the economists to forecast what would happen in the society under the impact of new technology, and then based on that forecast to adjust or balance the delicate dynamics between the jobs lost and the jobs created, is a losing game, let alone this “balancing” game would be performed by the bureaucrats in the governments. We all know too well where that would lead us to. Of course, the role of the government in an economy is indispensable. However, how to define that role is a challenge, at least. As a matter of fact, the role of government in economy is the debate of centuries, if not millenniums. Nobody has a definite answer. Ironically, I particularly like the analogy made by a Chinese communist veteran, Chen Yun: The Bird Cage. That is: In an economy, the government should provide the function like a bird cage, so the “birds”, i.e. the businesses, can fly freely within the cage, but not allowed to get out. I think a “cage” is what the government should provide but be limited to providing the cage only. It would be on a dangerous slippery slope should the government start to become a “bird” in the cage.
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