一些有关天然气的重要连接

天然气从2012年九月开始上涨，差不多到45，然后下到30再反弹到40后就一路下到19。

从 2013年12月关注天然气以来，这些是我注意到的现象。

12年12月到13年1月中旬的下跌是因为12年的冬天比起前一年来较暖和，inventory withdraw 比去年同期少。天然气在冬天下跌好像反着常人的思维来的。虽在13年一月有个小涨幅，但总体还是bearish。

Bearish 一直到2013年二月，当大家以为天要热了，夏天要到，用天然气会少，天然气要掉，但这时却出乎意料的一路涨涨涨，二月一直到四月中旬两个多月反着大众思维的一路牛着。因为天气比去年同期要冷。夏天要到了，后来才开始下跌，却又一下拉起因为第二个出口天然气的公司被approve，但天然气出口不是一下能成的，有很多事要做，至少要过一两年第一个approve的公司才有可能开始出口。

现在是6月，天气在70度左右，美国南北不需开空调和暖气，天然气还会继续下跌吗？夏天来了，空调开起来，天然气就会用的多了，会涨吗？

影响天然气的因素太多，华街操纵太过。

去年12月时，每天range有2-3，现在好像只在每星期四有range，平时都不动。

从图上看，两个山峰很像。



还有要注意每月第4个星期option到期的那个时刻。

http://www.ccstrade.com/futures/natural-gas-futures-ng/exp/
Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) NG - Futures Expiration

各种有关天然气的连接：

Natural Gas futures(NGG13.NYM)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=NGG13.NYM+Futures+Chain


Weather

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/New+York+NY+USNY0996:1:US


Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks (1/29/2013)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1140541-natural-gas-eia-storage-projections-and-fundamental-discussion-for-next-5-weeks?source=intbrokers_regular


Natural Gas

http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/


Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_stor_wkly_s1_w.htm


Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm


Natural Gas ETFs Continue to Soar

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-etfs-continue-soar-221238300.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1033811-get-ready-to-buy-natural-gas?source=yahoo
Get Ready To Buy Natural Gas

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3184480.html
看有人谈天然气，我说两句

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3069453.html
天然气价格即将全面回升的最大因素居然是----
tzbcwbc 于 2013-01-05

gas symbol

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456691-a-docile-etf-for-the-nat-gas-surge?source=yahoo


http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3037662.html
UGAZ vs $NATGAS symbol

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3218312.html
NG related ETFs

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-natural-gas-picks-to-fuel-profits-2013-06-24?siteid=yhoof2
3 natural gas picks to fuel profits

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3068647.html
天然气周线图。仅做参考.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1534452-natural-gas-unfazed-by-western-heat-wave-decline-to-low-3-range-looms?source=yahoo
Natural Gas Unfazed By Western Heat Wave, Decline To Low-$3 Range Looms

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3227356.html
天然气没有跌破前低
tzbcwbc 于 2013-07-11

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3228260.html
欢天然气的看看这图也许对未来走势一目了然（图)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1545012-natural-gas-prices-will-fall-more-no-upside-catalysts-seen-until-winter?source=yahoo
Natural Gas Prices Will Fall More, No Upside Catalysts Seen Until Winter

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3096957.html
天然气的历史数据?

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3106050.html
天然气展望
tzbcwbc 于 2013-02-15

 天烂气的绝对库存量不影响价格，而是往年同期的相对量来决定价格波动范围。 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm
Short-Term Energy Outlook

 

油越贵，页岩油产量越大，但生产页岩油附带大量天然气，这类天然气的成本是负的？

 
 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1546172-the-u-s-mexico-natural-gas-export-boom?source=yahoo

 

The U.S. - Mexico Natural Gas Export Boom

 

摘要：

 

If gas shipping does bottleneck as Mexican exports grow, near-at-hand producers in the Eagle Ford and Permian could find themselves best positioned to reap higher prices.

 

Gas-weighted Eagle Ford producers include Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), DCP Midstream Partners, L.P. (DPM), NuStar Energy, L.P. (NS), Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. (SXE), Pioneer (PXD) and EOG Resources (EOG).

 

but it's a safe bet the company is concerned about increased Mexican exports driving up prices of its currently cheap natural gas supply.

 

 

 

This could be the set-up for a battle between gas exporters and domestic consumers. The former looking for higher prices, the latter trying to keep natural gas more affordable.

 

 

 

Power generators, for one. In early June, Calpine Energy Services - the subsidiary of gas-fired power operator Calpine Corp. (CPN) that secures fuel supplies for the company's plants - filed a Motion to Intervene in the permitting of the Eagle Ford export expansion project in south Texas.

 

These issues could delay or even de-rail the massive Eagle Ford expansion. Given that this project accounts for nearly two-thirds of planned new export capacity, it's critical to watch proceedings here. The fate of the "Mexican export boom" may hinge on it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1542902-will-natural-gas-resume-its-downward-trend?source=yahoo
Will Natural Gas Resume Its Downward Trend?

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3229778.html
(ZT) Natural Gas Prices Will Fall More, No Upside Catalysts See

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3230935.html
不能相信天气预报
tzbcwbc 于 2013-07-16

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-natural-gas-continues-lose-162420284.html
Why natural gas continues to lose market share to coal

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-aren-t-hotter-temperatures-165410435.html
Why aren’t hotter temperatures enough to help natural gas prices?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1553382-near-term-and-intermediate-term-outlook-for-u-s-natural-gas-prices?source=yahoo
Near-Term And Intermediate-Term Outlook For U.S. Natural Gas Prices

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1553492-the-future-for-gold-miners?source=yahoo
The Future For Gold Miners

ZT

In nearly 80% of all the past years that natural gas has been trading, if you would have purchased this commodity on August 1st and held it till the end of the month you would have a made a profit. Now that is what I call a high probability trade.
Natural gas prices are almost entirely driven by the weather. And if you live in the Midwest, Northeast or West Coast, you know that we are having record heat waves this summer 2013. That means a lot of people are running their air conditioner. And what powers most utilities now? Natural gas.
So after yesterday’s extreme move in natural gas, which broke a huge downward trend line, I think we could see prices jump by as much as 20% by the end of August. 

I like the natural gas ETF (NYSEARCA:UNG), as well as call options on it. Another alternative, the 2x leveraged ProShares Ultra Natural Gas ETF (NYSEARCA:BOIL). 

A Small cap natural gas stock that I like is Penn Virginia (NYSE:PVA), this stock is deeply undervalued it is trading at 1/3 of its book value, and is currently breaking out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This could take the stock to $7 in a very short time frame. This would be mean an almost a 40% move for Penn Virginia. The September $5 Calls are attractive at $.40 cents or less, which means if Penn Virginia goes to $7, we are talking about a home run triple digit plus winner on those call options.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-rigs-rose-yet-051200213.html
Natural gas rigs rose yet again – possible reversal of downward trend?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/07/24/will-this-commodity-buck-the-trend/?partner=yahootix
Will This Commodity Buck The Trend?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1573942-bullish-inventory-report-cant-lift-natural-gas-prices-as-traders-eye-cooler-temps?source=yahoo
Bullish Inventory Report Can't Lift Natural Gas Prices As Traders Eye Cooler Temps

今天report不错，本该UGAZ涨，但这星期天凉快，反而掉了点。

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-inventories-rise-less-162147413.html
Natural gas inventories rise less than expected, but prices still fall

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-etfs-struggle-cool-192617446.html
Natural Gas ETFs Struggle on Cool Weather Forecast

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3129719.html
Here is the reason why Natural Gas is so bullish.

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3130263.html
气温

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3130399.html
(ZT) NG touched $4

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprise-jump-natural-gas-rigs-154406238.html
Can the surprise jump in natural gas rigs last?