美国房地产投资最新观察分析

美国的房地产市场正在进行一代人一次的价格调整. 明智同时持有现金的投资者也许在这里能找到只有一辈子才有的机会. 随着经济和借贷市场逐渐回暖之际, 这样的投资回报也会远远超出当初的最大的设想.

 以下是我对当前市场的一点观察:

 

我认为美国房地产的3个部分也正是反映了美国经济的几个分层.

A)豪宅或者拥有足够现钱的屋主.(占市场份额的10%). 这些房产利用了相当数目的首付款, 并且保持管理的完好, 很少出现银行法拍. 这些房产集中在: 人口集中区域(如曼哈顿), 手持现金的新移民(如法拉盛, 韩国城), 和新兴工业发展区(如比佛利山庄和硅谷).

那些热门区域的房价自从房市高峰期到现在只下跌了5%-10%, 也许会随着新移民流入和有限的新房供应而开始复苏.

B)大量中产阶级房子,(约占60%): 大部分这类房子从1997到2007年这十年期间由于过量次级贷款和低首付甚至零首付而价值疯狂飚升. 残酷的银行法拍将这类市场价格调整下降了50%甚至75%.(比如佛罗里达, 内华德和其他经济衰败区.) 而作为投资者, 在这里却绝对能在这举步维艰的市场里捡到“钻石”。

C) 小镇和郊区（占30%）（比如纽约上州等）。这些区域在过去12年也没有房地产热潮。但在良好的租赁市场下房价面临升温的利好。

随着房地产市场泡沫的继续，租赁市场却成了历史新高。在大部分区域，平均租金下落很小。明智和富有现钱的投资者需要能鉴别那些相对便宜和相对租赁强劲的房产作为投资：那些靠近主要人口集中地的区域（比如纽约，芝加哥，洛杉矶）, 并且有合理方便的公共交通,  拥有公平公正的房产民事纠纷法庭(容易赶不良房客), 合理的低房产税, 超过房产高峰期75%折扣的房价等等.

本文系个人观点, 仅作参考. 欢迎阅读讨论并且指正. 谢谢!

 

America Real Estate is undergoing once-a-generation price correction. Smart and cash-rich investors may find once in-a-life opportunities. When the economy and lending improve, rewards could be beyond your wildest dreams.

My observation on the state of current markets:

 

I think there are 3 real estate segments, mirroring American's social/economical classifications:

 

 A) Luxury or equity/cash rich home owners (10% of the market). These properties were bought by large down payments, have maintained well, and with very few/non-existent foreclosures. These properties concentrate in: population centers (Manhattan), cash-rich immigrants (Flushing, Korean-town), areas with booming industries: Beverly Hills and Silicon Valley.

Housing prices in those HOT areas have corrected very little since peak (5 to 10%) and may start recovering due to influx of immigrants and limited new supplies.

B) Vast mid-class market (60%): the values of most properties shot up 100% to 200% from 1997 to 2007 largely due to aggressive subprime lending and low-down payments and no-down-payments. Due to relentless foreclosures, this large market has corrected on average 50%, some 75% (FL, NV and other economically depressed areas). There are definitely diamonds in this rough market for investors.

 

C) Small towns and rural areas(30%) (like update NY) which did not have a housing boom in the last decade, are in fact seeing a rise in housing value because of rental markets.

 

Because of this on-going housing bust, the rental market is at a historical high. Average rents have dipped very little in most areas. Smart and cash-rich investors should identify houses with strong rents and dirty cheap prices: Areas close to major population centers (NY, Chicago, LA), Reasonable commute/public transportation, A fair housing court (easy to evict), Reasonable low taxes, and over 75% discount to peak prices.

All above is only my personal comment, please do your own research when investing. I welcome your feed back and input. Thanks!