传说中的拐点吗?---缓慢持续恢复中的蒙郡房地产市场

Figure 1 shows the price trends over the last 13 years. The blue line is the actual monthly median sales price, based on MRIS data, forall residential properties sold per year in Montgomery County. This graph shows that prices during theperiod 1997 to 2001 were appreciating around 3% peryear. Then the market turned up, appreciating 160%

(more than doubling in 6 years). It is easy to pick out the market turning point in 2007. Prices began declining in 2007, dropping by 27% before hitting bottom in January 2010. During the spring of 2010,the graph shows the market turned back up and hasbeen trending upward for the last year.

Generally, when the absorption rate is above 6 months supply, prices decline, whereas an absorption rate below 6 months is associated with rising prices. During the period of 2006-2008, the absorption rate ranged from 8 to14 months supply. During 2009 to 2010 theabsorption rate fluctuated between 4 and 8 months, ending the year at 5.6 months supply. Another leading indicator of where the market isgoing is the average time required to sell a home.

During the period of 1999 to 2005, the average timeto sell a home declined, hitting a record low of 15 days in June 2005. In 2006, the average marketing time started rising dramatically. The average days on market hit a record high of 119 days in January 2009. By the end of 2010, the average number of days on market had dropped to 83 days.

F ORECAST FOR 2011

How the 2011 housing market plays out will be influenced by many factors that are still uncertain. If new

inventory outpaces sales beyond the spring market, we could experience downward pressure on prices.

The continued ability to deduct mortgage interest, availability and accessibility of mortgage funds ( i.e

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) for the conforming market and the jumbo market, interest rate levels,

particularly for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and the overall volume of foreclosures have the potential

to halt recovery.

Detailed report please refer to the link:

http://mygcaar.com/images/uploads/GCAAR/2011/2010AnnualReport-MCfinal(ed).pdf

Melissa Zhong -- BMI Realtors
[e-mail]
Cell: 240-672-4586