雅歌创作歌曲，股评时事。
遗失在荒漠里的歌
本周三的EIA石油报告其实并不如表面的利多，所以可以乘高做空。
本周三EIA的报告里，原油库存增加了3.9M桶，可是汽油的库存减少了4.5M桶，取暖油和柴油库存减少了1.1M。 表面看起来，油产品的消耗量加起来5.6M桶比原油库存的增幅大，是利多。然而这是表象，那一周的汽油消耗量并没那么多。汽油库存减少的主因是汽油平均日产量减少了。加上炼油厂可能为了维护油产品的价格，故意牺牲一周，把库存减少量挪到下一周合起来报。这样，一周会比较差，另一周的消耗量会比较多。而市场的反应，只需要看这表面上的数据。请看下图详细的解说。
如果EIA的报告如俺上面所分析的，那么下一周三的报告，利空的可能性就很大。大家将会发现油产品的消耗量其实并没有那么多，比原油库存的增加来得少。加上天气温暖，取暖油的消耗量几乎停顿，只可能是增加，不会减少。所以俺建议今天可以乘高做空原油，买进DWTI，在136-150元区间买进。停损可以降低到130元。
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美元果然如俺昨天说的，今天稍微反弹了，黄金也下跌了一些，美股市大盘继续看好。关于黄金，昨天GLD的黄金库存增加了约6吨，为798.77吨。欧元区央行的负利率政策让有些机构投资人和散户认为应该投资黄金保值。当然，欧洲投资人昨天若是买进黄金其实就亏了。昨天欧元兑美元涨了1.8%，而黄金只涨了大约1.2%。今天美元反弹了0.5%，昨天所买的黄金又下跌了约0.5%。 所以利率低（或负利率）买黄金当保值投资其实是个谜思，有相当大的错误。知名对冲基金投资人John Paulson 就是认为美联储的QE，降低利率为0.25%会导致黄金暴涨至2500元，所以在2010年就大利买进黄金做多。据说到了去年总共赔了20亿美元。
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关于天然气：
回复 'saltfish' 的评论 : 天然气现在的价位应该就是到顶了，俺认为天然气到不了1.9元。目前是1.84元附近，最多就是到1.85元。Henry Hub 天然气现货价在1.57元，再过16天（3/29），当月份的天然气期货就到期了。除非现货价提高，否则期货价必须向现货价靠拢。
注意：http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-supply-1
回复 'rockyling' 的评论 : 没错！应该说4月份的期货价格。三月份期货早已结束了。EIA的报告里的表格有字误，3月份的应该为4月份的，4月份的应该是指五月份的价格。
03/10/2016
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U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (3/2/16 - 3/9/16) |
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Percent change for week compared with: |
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last year |
last week |
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Gross production |
2.40% |
0.11% |
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Dry production |
2.37% |
0.11% |
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Canadian imports |
-13.50% |
-4.74% |
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West (net) |
1.95% |
-0.25% |
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Midwest (net) |
26.75% |
-20.73% |
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Northeast (net) |
-78.16% |
54.46% |
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LNG imports |
-68.52% |
-82.01% |
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Total supply |
0.96% |
-0.79% |
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U.S. consumption - Gas Week: (3/2/16 - 3/9/16) |
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Percent change for week compared with: |
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last year |
last week |
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U.S. consumption |
-13.5% |
-5.2% |
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Power |
6.8% |
1.4% |
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Industrial |
-6.0% |
-2.7% |
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Residential/commercial |
-28.8% |
-11.4% |
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Total demand |
-12.2% |
-4.9% |
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Source: BENTEK Energy LLC |
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I=（S-D）*7=-57=〉D=57/7+S Let S=80 =〉D=8.143+80=88.143 I1=（0.9921S-0.9512D）*7=（79.368-83.8416）*7= -31.32 LetS=77=〉D=8.143+77=85.143 I1=（0.9922S-0.9512D）*7=（76.3917-80.988）*7= -32.174 My EST =-28 to -40BCF NatGasWeather Dry Production=72.1750BCF（03/03/2016）*1.0011==72.25BCF |
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DUST的锅底们，我割了大部分的DUST，按以往的教训，它该涨了。祝大家好运。
我进了一些DGAZ，相信雅歌老师的。
祝大家周末愉快，特别敬祝雅歌老师！
从另一方面来说，昨天金价大涨时买进黄金的，今天大跌时应该不会卖，否则就亏了。那么。金价为何大跌呢？美元指数其实后来只是稍微涨一点，不到0.1%！开始时美元涨0.5%，金价跌0.5%是属正常。后来金价继续下跌至1.7%，美元指数只是涨了不到0.1%，这就不是美元涨的关系了。而是黄金避险的因素消退了。股市涨了，美政府债卷利息涨了，所以金价下跌了。目前金价里还有70-80元是避险的因素的额外费用在，去掉之后，最少要跌至1160-1180之间。不过，俺认为会超跌，甚至跌破1100元。只是时间上可能还要在3月底的美联储会议后。
同感，加DGAZ 倍仓@23.08.
另外还有一理由，赌场跟旺家一定没错，半百老农最近一直都赚，值得跟。呵呵。。。
谢谢老师!
Thank you! What is the target for DWTI this time?
雅歌老师，俺没钱了---DUST一直没涨，套牢了---哭死----
谢谢雅歌老师！没子弹了。刚在IRA里找了点报仇！
U.S. Rig Count is down 9 rigs from last week to 480, with oil rigs down 6 to 386, and gas rigs down 3 to 94.
那应该现在空油了吧
回复 '雅歌1' 的评论 : 关于X（US Steel），俺认为已经反弹太多了，下个财报应该还是亏损。今天应该还是做空（Sell Short）的好机会。可以设14.8-15.1之间做空X。 目标价位是11.5-12。5元，相当于20%-30%。
做原油5-6年了，大赚后做了天然气大赔。我个人觉得天然气根本不适合散户，经常是判断对了还是亏钱，多少人做它亏精光。我那年大亏出来的时候连死的心都有了。当然每一个人刚进去的时候都觉得自己不会是那个傻叉。
最近的原油我觉得和他们那个会议有关，如果讨论不出什么结果，原油再破30就很正常了。所有油国都各怀鬼胎，估计也就是一破纸协议，私下背后捅刀。
回复 '雅歌迷' 的评论 :
简单来说，就是每天，天然气跌了多少 个percent，Dgaz就涨3乘以那个多少个percent。
谢谢小豆，什么是看空三倍？---哎！我不但菜还笨---
简单来说，就是每天，天然气跌了多少 个percent，Dgaz就涨多少个percent再乘3。
谢谢田州吃货，你一点儿都不菜，菜的是我！
回复 '雅歌迷' 的评论 :
回复 '听乐' 的评论 : 欢迎光临！谢谢提供资料！俺会一直做空天然气到1.5元！DGAZ 34元的目标不变。
既然老师这么有信心，菜鸟我跟定了---继续hold住DGAZ--
BTW,菜鸟我一直没明白做空天然气到1.5元是何意？什么叫做空？天然气是指UGAZ这个股票吗？但现在只有0.94元左右耶----上个月老师不是建议止损的么？
回复 '雅歌1' 的评论 : 欢迎光临！谢谢提供资料！俺会一直做空天然气到1.5元！DGAZ 34元的目标不变。
回复 '听乐' 的评论 :
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Natural_Gas_Futures/NG
Natural Gas Weekly Update 也已经出来了。
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
Data是比较bearish的
请问老师，UGAZ并股对DGAZ有什么影响吗？
天然气现在的价位应该就是到顶了，俺认为天然气到不了1.9元。目前是1.84元附近，最多就是到1.85元。Henry Hub 天然气现货价在1.57元，再过十二天，当月份的天然气期货就到期了。除非现货价提高，否则期货价必须向现货价靠拢
ZT:
IEA says oil prices might have bottomed out
By Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices might have bottomed as production declines in the United States and other non-OPEC producers are accelerating and an increase in supply from Iran has been less than dramatic, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.
The IEA, which coordinates energy policies of industrialized nations, said it now believed non-OPEC output would fall by 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 compared to its previous estimate of 600,000 bpd.
U.S. production alone would decline by 530,000 bpd this year, it said.
"There are clear signs that market forces ... are working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output," the Paris-based IEA said.
Oil prices hit their lowest since 2003, below $30 per barrel, in January on a supply glut stemming from booming U.S. output in recent years and a decision by OPEC to ramp up supply to fight for market share against higher-cost producers.
Prices have since recovered to $40 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' leader, Saudi Arabia, and top non-OPEC producer Russia said they could freeze output.
The IEA said OPEC output fell by 90,000 bpd in February due to production outages in Nigeria, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, which lost a combined 350,000 bpd.
"Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it would be; in February we believe that production increased by 220,000 bpd and, provisionally, it appears that Iran’s return will be gradual," the IEA said.
Iran has promised to add as much as 1 million bpd to global supply after clinching a deal with the West in January to ease sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.
The IEA said inventories in industrialized member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had declined in February for the first time in a year although crude in floating storage increased.
The IEA said it nevertheless saw global oil and product stocks rising heavily in the first half of 2016 in the area of 1.5-1.9 million bpd but slowing to just 0.2 million bpd in the second half, versus estimates of a build of 0.3 million bpd in its previous report.
"For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel, but we cannot be precisely sure when in 2017 the oil market will achieve the much-desired balance. It is clear that the current direction of travel is the correct one, although with a long way to go," the IEA said.
INDIA SUPPORTS DEMAND GROWTH
The IEA kept its estimate for 2016 growth in global oil demand unchanged at 1.17 million bpd, or 1.2 percent of the total 95.8 million bpd.
Demand growth has slowed significantly from the
near five-year high of 2.3 million bpd in the third quarter of 2015, which was spurred by low oil prices, but it nevertheless remains near the averages of recent decades.
"The risks to global oil demand growth are almost certainly on the downside," the IEA said.
It forecast flat demand this year in the United States, the world’s biggest consumer: "But if prices maintain their recent upward momentum there could be further weakness."
China, the world's second-biggest source of demand, will see growth of only 330,000 bpd this year, well below the 10-year average of 440,000 bpd.
"We expect India and other smaller non-OECD Asian economies and the Middle East to provide most of the 2016 growth. The foundations for global demand growth are sound, but not rock-solid," the IEA said.
对于这一周来天然气期货价格和天然气供需库存这些基本面背离的原因，这里的讨论似乎主要归结于两点。一是炒家炒作，二是散户捞底。还有一个因素没有提到，就是这几天的原油期货上涨。我看了看过去一个多月来天然气MM“不按牌理出牌”的几天，发现都和原油价格急剧变化相关。也许对于天然气短期价格判断应该考虑基本面和原油价格的急剧变化。如果是这样，DGAZ升回来需要原油降下去才行。对吗？