昨晚中国的进出口数据很差,只有原油的进口破纪录的的高。中国二月份进口的原油日均为8百万桶,是破纪录的高,比一月份的进口量高20.2%,也比去年12月份的最高纪录7.81百万桶高。这对原油价格有支撑,虽然今早的报导说科威特只有在所有的OPEC国家都冻结原油产量时,才会不增产;这条件似乎是不可能达到的;这声明在过去是属于非常利空的消息。可是美洲早盘,原油从小跌回升到不跌了。看来MM决心炒高原油的决心不变,不需要任何理由。所以近期想要做空原油还是要非常谨慎!
天然气过去两天涨,俺路透社的说法是EIA最新的预测天然气将在4月份减产0.45BCF/Day。 这根本无济于事!俺说过天然气要减产至70BCF/Day以下才会达到供需平衡。目前天然气的日产还在72.5-73.5BCF之间,比过去都还高!天然气的涨势是否被原油价格反弹带动,俺觉得是有一点。然而天然气的基本面与原油的基本面不同,美国的原油在过去四周已经看到原油减产和继续减产,而天然气在上周四的报告才看到稍微减产,之前是连续几周增产。 还有天然气最大的消耗量是寒冷的冬季,而在可预测的未来几周,看到的气象预报是非常利空的温暖。再供过于求严重的情况之下,天然气价格至少到三月底,四月初是利空。也许到了五月底,六月初,如果天然气产量可以继续减少的话,有可能会达到一个平衡的供需量。(4/1到10/31日是天然气库存注入的时期,以备冬季的消耗)。
所以天然气做空是可以不用太担心的。DGAZ的停损可以设在24.5-25元之间。
今天EIA会公布短期能源展望,按该网页的资讯是12:00PM-1:00PM公布,但实际公布的时间不一定。不过,今天的STEO会对原油是利多,大概会说原油产量在二月份减少了超过10万-15万桶,未来会继续减产。天然气的展望会是利空,大概要将天然气到3/31日的库存预测从2096BCF,高出5年平均41%,提高到高出5年平均的46%到50%!
所以俺仍旧认为DGAZ未来10天,有机会到达33元-34元的目标。
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俺最近会比较忙,不一定能够及时回复各位的问题。
中国的出口数据同比跌了25.4%,进口同比下跌了13.8%。虽然今年二月份有春假的因素,还是很差。这对原材料,基础金属等矿业公司股价不利,加上最近这些公司已经从底部反弹60%-120%,所以可以考虑做空。
关于黄金价格迟迟不下跌,GLD(黄金ETF)昨天首次出现库存减少,表示开始有资金净流出。这是一个多月以来的第一次,虽然减少的量不大。如果今天收盘时可以看到库存继续减少,便是好消息。表示黄金开始往下的日子不远了。
Date GLD Holding of Gold in Tonnes
4-Feb-16 693.62
5-Feb-16 698.46
8-Feb-16 703.52
9-Feb-16 702.03
10-Feb-16 702.03
11-Feb-16 716.01
12-Feb-16 710.95
16-Feb-16 710.95
17-Feb-16 710.95
18-Feb-16 713.63
19-Feb-16 732.96
22-Feb-16 752.29
23-Feb-16 752.29
24-Feb-16 760.32
25-Feb-16 760.32
26-Feb-16 762.4
29-Feb-16 777.27
1-Mar-16 786.2
2-Mar-16 788.57
3-Mar-16 793.33
4-Mar-16 793.33
7-Mar-16 793.12
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重要跟贴补充:
回复 'pepper_salt' 的评论 : 对于大部分的新手,现在最好观望。因为原油在建立新的波动区间。你操作得很不错,可以试买入UWTI在2.2-2.26之间,停损在2.17元。俺估计今明两天的EIA报告都会是利多。上周三报告进口8.3M, 本周不会那么多了。还有炼油厂使用率恢复上升的趋势,加上应该继续看到原油减产,总日产量有可能在这两周内跌至9M桶以下,所以会是利多!
回复 '-秋影-' 的评论 : 黄金的基本面是要跌回1160元附近,考虑到过去45天,近百亿美元的资金涌入炒作黄金,若是金价开始下跌,会造成超跌。所以未来跌破1100元是可能的。除非有新资金继续涌入黄金ETF,继续购买炒高,否则黄金很难继续再涨。
多谢老师耐心指导!有道理,我一颗红心,两手准备 :)
感觉MM们知道雅歌老师要我们在这个点止损,所以有意打在这个点让人难受。
不止一次了!
回复 '雅歌1' 的评论 :
希望DGAZ周四上来。我按照您的方法看日线的accu/dist,负值很大,是空仓很重,对吧?
GLD的黄金减量可能是有人离场,如果明天继续减量应该更能确定了。
Total gold in trust
Tonnes 790.74 Updated every week day
这是连续两天净流出,虽然不代表黄金明天一定会涨,但是代表主力开始悄悄的撤退了。
回复 '碧空净' 的评论 : 我觉得是上来20%后会调整。调整完毕要么继续往上,要么反向。
想探讨一下,因为有点担心气完全被mm操纵,根本不跟着fa走了。谢谢指点!
American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory data result
?Oil inventory build of 4.4 million barrels for the week
?Cushing build 692,000 barrles
?Gasoline +2.124 mln barrels
?Distillate -0.128 mln barrels
再问一个幼儿园级的问题,
卖油卖气,报税时和其它的股票如FB是一样地做吗?
不懂啊,所以就上来问。
非常同意, 特别是2x, 3x 的ETF. 极度影响日常的精神状态和心情. 时间长了真不行.
DUST/HGD我始终留一半等老师说的上涨,其余一半就高抛低吸摊低成本。这样到了涨的那天就不会踏空了。
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday lowered its 2016 and 2017 estimates for U.S. crude-oil production and forecasts for West Texas Intermediate crude prices. It forecasts average U.S. crude output of 8.67 million barrels a day for 2016, down from a prior estimate of 8.69 million. For 2017, it sees output of 8.19 million barrels a day, down from a previous forecast of 8.46 million. WTI prices are seen at $34.04 a barrel this year, down from a prior estimate of $37.59, the EIA said. For 2017, it expects to see $40.09 a barrel, down from a prior forecast of $50.
回复 'pepper_salt' 的评论 : 现在可以乘高卖出一小部分。今天和明天很关键:
1。今天收盘后要看GLD的黄金有没有继续减少。
STEO的报告对原油只是稍微利多,因为它估计的二月份减产只有8万桶,比每周报告累计加起来的约15万桶少。不过,明天的EIA周报若是继续显示减产超过5万桶,会是利多。
STEO对天然气估计的库存量在3/31日时达到2288BCF, 超过年平均的库存量54%,比俺的估计还多,是非常利空!加上本周二,三,四日,东部地区比正常高出20度以上,还有些地区可能破纪录同期高温。有DGAZ的可以安心拿着。没有的,可以试着少量买进。
Highlights
North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $32/barrel (b) in February, a $1/b increase from January.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $34/b in 2016 and $40/b in 2017, $3/b and $10/b lower than forecast in last month's STEO, respectively. The lower forecast prices reflect oil production that has been more resilient than expected in a low-price environment and lower expectations for forecast oil demand growth.
Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average the same as Brent in 2016 and 2017. However, the current values of futures and options contracts suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook. For example, EIA's forecast for the average WTI price in June 2016 of $35/b should be considered in the context of recent Nymex contract values for June 2016 delivery (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report) suggesting that the market expects WTI prices to range from $24/b to $58/b (at the 95% confidence interval).
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.2 million b/d in 2017. EIA estimates that crude oil production in February averaged 9.1 million b/d, which was 80,000 b/d below the January level.
Natural gas working inventories were 2,536 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on February 26, 46% higher than during the same week last year and 36% higher than the previous five-year average (2011-15) for that week. EIA forecasts that inventories will end the winter heating season (March 31) at 2,288 Bcf, which would be 54% above the level at the same time last year. Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to average $2.25/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 and $3.02/MMBtu in 2017, compared with an average of $2.63/MMBtu in 2015.
Natural gas is expected to fuel the largest share of electricity generation in 2016 at 33%, compared with 32% for coal. This would be the first time that natural gas provides more electricity generation than coal on an annual average basis. In 2017, natural gas and coal are both forecast to fuel 32% of electricity generation. For renewables, the forecast share of total electricity generation supplied by hydropower rises from 6% in 2016 to 7% in 2017, and the forecast share for other renewables increases from 8% in 2016 to 9% in 2017.
1。今天收盘后要看GLD的黄金有没有继续减少。
2。有没有跌破1257-1260的强支撑,这两天有可能随时会跌破。万一跌破,DUST有可能要大涨20%-30%。若是全卖了,不一定有机会补回。
怎么看出来的?感觉?
不要急着卖出DGAZ,至少等到32.5元以上才考虑卖。有可能最高到34元!
非常感谢老师提醒!菜鸟我这次一定耐心而且信心等着33到来----
请问dust还能上5吗?手上的割了一部分还有1000在水下。。。。。。
上查。 点 spreadsheet of archived data.
Goldman Sachs says that SPX will up 5% and commodity rally is mirage. Conflicting information. without commodity rally, how SPX up?
俺昨天的DGAZ和DWTI全卖了,今天准备买一点DGAZ