个人资料
正文

你们都错了!《科学》那篇文章的数据建议中国人诚信远超其它国家

(2019-06-25 23:06:58) 下一个

最近科学一篇关于诚信研究似乎显示中国人在世界的底部而激爆了中国网民:
中国诚信国际排名垫底激爆中国网民
http://cn.rfi.fr/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20190624-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%AF%9A%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E6%8E%92%E5%90%8D%E5%9E%AB%E5%BA%95%E6%BF%80%E7%88%86%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BD%91%E6%B0%91

分析一下实验方法和结果可以得出完全不同的结果。

Science原文:
Civic honesty around the globe
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2019/06/19/science.aau8712

 

原文说了研究目的:"In this paper we examine how acts of civic honesty, where people voluntarily refrain from opportunistic behavior, are affected by monetary incentives to act otherwise."。研究结果显示在上面的图中。从研究的目的看各国在图中高低位置没有什么意义所以不存在中国人诚信在世界底部的说法。

实验的过程是这样的“After walking into the building, one of our research assistants (from a pool of eleven male and two female assistants) approached an employee at the counter and said, “Hi, I found this [pointing to the wallet] on the street around the corner.” The wallet was then placed on the counter and pushed over to the employee. “Somebody must have lost it. I’m in a hurry and have to go. Can you please take care of it?” The research assistant then left the building without leaving contact details or asking for a receipt.”

对于研究目的,原文有个逻辑说“Citizens displayed greater civic honesty when the wallets contained money, but perhaps this is because the amount was not large enough to be financially meaningful. To examine this possibility we also ran a “BigMoney” condition in three countries (US, UK, and Poland) that increased the money inside the wallet to US $94.15, or seven times the amount in our original Money condition. Shown in Fig. 2, reporting rates in all three countries increase even further when the wallets contained a sizable amount of money. Pooled across the three countries, response rates increased from 46% in the NoMoney condition to 61% in the Money condition, and topped out at 72% in the BigMoney condition (P < 0.0001 for all pairwise comparisons; table S9).” 

NoMoney的case是baseline说明这个reporting方法work的情况。Money的case相对于NoMoney的case说明钱的作用。中国人report率不论有没有钱都是全世界最低的。但是钱对中国report率的影响却是世界最大的。有money的report的几乎是没有money的3倍远超其它国家。按原文的逻辑这建议中国人诚信远超其它国家。因为有money时中国人更愿意比其它国家的人付出更大努力去report。

Note-中国整体report率低有几种可能因素。比如中国人一般人不一定用Email,不懂英语的更多,处理程序不完善,多一事不如少一事等等。这是中国人应该考虑改进的地方。

另外有人发现还有更多的原始/背景数据比如懂英语率拒绝率世界银行的各国企业email使用等。(http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/currentevent/1784886.html

但是既然钱包一放就走人,这些“率”在实际情况下是有问题的,

 

[ 打印 ]
阅读 ()评论 (0)
评论
目前还没有任何评论
登录后才可评论.