从今天的FED会议看,
(1) 美国的outlook for the U.S. economy is not so promising.
(2) 银行的业绩和表现没能很好的Support 现在的经济Growth.
(3) Eurpean debt crisis has not been stablized.
So: (1) The market may not be able to support the level of SPX above 1150
(2) The current market (SPX 1092) is bearish in short term ( 1 week - 2 Weeks)
(3) The next possible trading range ( 995- 1100).
Positions:
Sell 1/3 of EXM @ 5.33, gain 4.8%; Hold the left 2/3 EXM.
EXM今天逆大盘而动, 也许是到底的信号.
Link:
Fed More Cautious on U.S. Growth
Federal Reserve officials downgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy Wednesday, indicating that short-term interest rates could remain at a record low until next year to support growth.
After a two-day session of the Fed's policy-making body, officials used more tentative language on the strength of the recovery compared to their previous meeting almost two months ago. They also noted how financial conditions had become less supportive of economic growth following the Eurpean debt crisis.
"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving ...
The Fed holds rates steady, saying inflation is expected to remain subdued and downgrading their outlook for the U.S. economy. Hoeing dissents, saying 'extended period' phrase limits flexibility.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.
Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.
outlook for the U.S. economy
