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Figures Show Recovery Accelerating zt

(2010-11-18 14:02:31) 下一个

The index of U.S. leading indicatorsrose for a fourth consecutive month, manufacturing surged in thePhiladelphia area and jobless claims climbed less than forecast,signaling the world’s largest economy is accelerating.

“The soft patch is behind us,” said Jonathan Basile, aneconomist at Credit Suisse in New York. “We have a little moremomentum. Employers are getting a bit more optimistic about theoutlook and don’t need to cut costs like before.”

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the nextthree to six months climbed 0.5 percent for a second consecutivetime, capping the biggest back-to-back gains since February-March, the New York-based research group said today. Factoriesin the Philadelphia region expanded at the fastest pace of theyear, and the number of workers seeking jobless benefits overthe past four weeks fell to the lowest level in two years.

The reports indicated Federal Reserve efforts to spurgrowth will yield results in coming months as rising stockprices, near record-low interest rates and an improving jobmarket help Americans repair tattered finances. The data gavestocks, already climbing after Ireland moved closer to getting afinancial rescue from the European Union, a further boost.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.5 percent to1,196.69 at the 4 p.m. close in New York. Treasury securitiesdropped, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to2.90 percent from 2.88 percent late yesterday.

Philadelphia Factories

The Philadelphia Fed’s general economic index rose to 22.5,the highest level since December, from 1 a month earlier.Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the area coveringeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. Thegauge was forecast to increase to 5, according to the medianestimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Applications for unemployment insurance payments rose by2,000 to 439,000 in the week ended Nov. 13, Labor Departmentfigures showed. The four-week moving average, a less volatilemeasure than the weekly figures, dropped to 443,000, the lowestlevel since September 2008.

“Growth is reaccelerating in the fourth quarter after apretty sluggish third quarter,” said Jim O’Sullivan, globalchief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “It’s stillunclear how much it’s reaccelerating and how far theacceleration will go.”

Estimates for the leading index of the 58 economistssurveyed ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 0.8 percent.

Rates, Stocks

The biggest contributors to the increase in the leadingindicators were the spread between short- and long-term interestrates, and increases in stock prices and the money supply.

Bernanke said on Oct. 15 that more monetary stimulus wouldbe warranted because inflation was too low and unemployment wastoo high. This month, policy makers announced a plan to purchaseanother $600 billion in Treasury securities to keep interestrates low and prevent inflation from slowing much more.

Shares rallied last month in anticipation of the Fed’saction. The October gain in the S&P 500 followed an 8.8 percentincrease prior month, the best back-to-back performance in morethan a year.

The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, agauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 in October after nochange the prior two months. The gauge tracks payrolls, incomes,sales and production -- the measures used by the National Bureauof Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S.recessions.

The index of lagging indicators increased 0.1 percent lastmonth. The index measures business lending, length ofunemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs,inventories and consumer credit.

Index Breakdown

Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading indexare known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, buildingpermits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hoursand supplier delivery times. The Conference Board estimates neworders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and moneysupply adjusted for inflation.

Gains in incomes and stock prices are helping householdsrepair tattered finances more than a year into the economicrecovery that began in June 2009.

Bank of America Corp., the biggest lender in the U.S.,earmarked $5.6 billion for credit losses in the third quarter,down from $8.1 billion in the second quarter and $11.7 billion ayear earlier. Net write-offs of uncollectible loans at theCharlotte, North Carolina-based lender declined 25 percent.

“Everything we see points to a continued recovery, albeita slow recovery,” Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan said at a company-sponsored conference Nov. 16.Commercial lending is starting to turn around and consumers arespending more on leisure, he said.

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