交易禅
把握市场趋势；交易在当下；风险第一，盈利第二。
The rebound in U.S. home pricesprobably slowed, while consumer confidence languished near afive-month low, indicating threats to the economic recovery aremounting, economists said before reports today.
Property values in 20 cities climbed 3.5 percent in Junefrom the same month last year, down from a 4.6 percent gain inthe 12 months to May, according to the median forecast of 21economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may showsentiment stagnated in August.
Record foreclosures, unemployment near a 26-year high and aplunge in sales following the end of a government tax creditwill probably pressure home values in coming months. Furthererosion in home equity may undermine Americans’ confidence andlimit consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent ofthe economy.
“The housing market is in the midst of a double dip, withsales declining and prices likely to,” said Guy LeBas, chieffixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC inPhiladelphia. “Consumers are in a state of repairing theirbalance sheets. It would be fairly problematic for consumerspending if there was another home-price decline.”
The home-price data from S&P/Case-Shiller are due at 9 a.m.New York time. Estimates ranged from increases of 2.5 percent to4.2 percent. It would be the first time the measure failed toimprove since a 19 percent drop in the year ended January 2009,which was the worst performance in records dating to 2001.
Consumer Confidence
A report from the Conference Board, a New York-basedresearch group, will show its sentiment gauge was little changedat 50.7 in August compared with 50.4 the prior month, accordingto the survey median. Estimates ranged from 47.5 to 55. July’sreading was the lowest since February, and the gauge averaged 45in 2009 and 97 during the expansion that ended in December 2007.
Home prices rose 0.2 percent in June from the prior month,according to the Bloomberg survey, compared with a 0.5 percentMay advance.
The year-over-year gauge provides better indications oftrends in prices, the group has said. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.
Builders such as KB Home and Lennar Corp. reported salesdropped after April 30, the deadline for buyers to sign purchasecontracts and qualify for a tax credit worth as much as $8,000.The deadline to close transactions, originally set for June 30,was extended to Sept. 30.
No More Incentives
Donald Tomnitz, chief executive officer of D.R. HortonInc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, said hewelcomes the end of federal incentives aimed at demand.
“I don’t want the tax credit to be re-enacted or berecreated or extended,” Tomnitz said on an Aug. 3 conferencecall with investors. “We want to get back to a normalizedmarket.”
The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilder Index, which includesD.R. Horton and Lennar, has dropped about 32 percent sincereaching a 19-month high on May 3. The broader S&P 500 Index isdown 14 percent from April 23’s 19-month peak.
Purchases of new homes plunged in July to a record low, andthe median price was the lowest level since 2003, CommerceDepartment data showed this month. The National Association ofRealtors reported a record 27 percent drop in July sales ofexisting houses.
Mounting Foreclosures
Foreclosures may be an obstacle for much of the year. Arecord 269,962 U.S. homes were seized from delinquent owners inthe second quarter as lenders set a pace to claim more than 1million properties by the end of 2010, according to RealtyTracInc., an Irvine, California-based data company.
The economy is a top issue for voters in the Novembercongressional elections, and polls show the public isincreasingly skeptical of President Barack Obama’s performance.Public approval for the president’s handling of the economy wasat 41 percent in an Aug. 11-16 Associated Press-GfK survey, anall-time low and down from 50 percent last July.
In an effort to help struggling homeowners pay theirmortgages, the Obama administration will begin a Federal HousingAuthority refinancing effort for qualified borrowers and willstart an emergency homeowners’ loan program for unemployedborrowers so they can stay in their homes, Housing and UrbanDevelopment Secretary Shaun Donovan said on CNN’s “State of theUnion” this week.
Manufacturing, the industry that helped the U.S. reboundfrom the worst recession since the 1930s, is showing signs ofweakening. A report from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. at 9:45 a.m. New York time may its show businessbarometer dropped this month to the lowest level since November,according to the survey’s median estimate.
Bloomberg Survey
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Case ShilCase Shil Chicago Consumer
Monthly Monthly PM Conf
MOM% YOY% Index Index
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Date of Release 08/31 08/31 08/31 08/31
Observation Period June June Aug. Aug.
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Median 0.2% 3.5% 57.0 50.7
Average 0.2% 3.6% 56.8 50.7
High Forecast 0.5% 4.2% 60.0 55.0
Low Forecast -0.6% 2.5% 53.0 47.5
Number of Participants 17 21 55 68
Previous 0.5% 4.6% 62.3 50.4
--------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. --- 4.2% 55.0 50.0
ABN Amro Bank 0.3% --- 58.0 52.0
Action Economics --- --- 56.0 51.0
Aletti Gestielle SGR --- --- 57.0 49.5
Ameriprise Financial Inc --- --- 55.0 49.5
Banesto --- 3.6% 58.2 51.2
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi --- --- 57.5 53.0
Barclays Capital 0.2% 4.1% 56.0 50.0
Bayerische Landesbank --- --- --- 50.8
BBVA -0.6% 2.5% 58.0 50.0
BMO Capital Markets --- 3.9% 58.0 51.5
BNP Paribas --- --- 56.0 51.0
BofA Merrill Lynch Resear --- 3.4% 56.5 49.5
Briefing.com --- 3.0% 58.0 49.5
Capital Economics 0.2% 4.1% 53.0 48.0
Citi --- --- 57.0 49.0
ClearView Economics 0.2% --- --- ---
Commerzbank AG --- 3.5% 57.0 50.0
Credit Agricole CIB --- --- 57.0 50.4
Credit Suisse --- --- 58.0 48.0
Danske Bank --- --- 56.8 51.4
DekaBank --- --- 55.0 49.0
Desjardins Group --- 3.9% 57.0 49.0
Deutsche Bank Securities 0.3% --- 58.5 51.5
Deutsche Postbank AG --- --- --- 50.5
DZ Bank --- 3.5% 58.2 49.5
Exane --- --- --- 52.5
First Trust Advisors --- --- 57.7 52.3
FTN Financial --- --- 60.0 ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. --- --- 58.0 51.5
Helaba --- --- 57.0 ---
High Frequency Economics 0.5% --- 55.0 50.0
HSBC Markets 0.0% --- 55.0 51.0
Hugh Johnson Advisors --- --- 59.0 51.6
IDEAglobal --- 4.0% 60.0 55.0
IHS Global Insight --- --- --- 52.5
Informa Global Markets --- --- 59.2 50.8
ING Financial Markets 0.0% 3.9% 57.0 51.5
Intesa-SanPaulo --- --- 55.0 52.0
J.P. Morgan Chase --- 4.2% --- 50.0
Janney Montgomery Scott L 0.4% 3.1% --- 50.0
Jefferies & Co. --- --- 60.0 49.0
Landesbank Berlin --- --- 56.0 50.0
Landesbank BW --- --- 57.0 52.0
MFC Global Investment Man --- --- --- 50.0
Moody’s Economy.com --- --- 58.1 51.3
Morgan Stanley & Co. --- --- --- 54.0
National Bank Financial --- --- --- 50.0
Natixis 0.3% 3.5% --- 50.0
Nomura Securities Intl. --- 3.1% 56.0 ---
Nord/LB --- --- 56.0 52.0
Pierpont Securities LLC --- --- --- 52.5
PineBridge Investments 0.1% --- 55.0 52.0
Raiffeisen Zentralbank --- --- --- 51.0
Raymond James --- --- 58.0 51.5
RBC Capital Markets --- --- 56.0 53.2
RBS Securities Inc. --- --- --- 47.5
Scotia Capital 0.2% --- --- ---
Societe Generale --- --- 56.0 51.0
Standard Chartered --- --- --- 51.0
State Street Global Marke 0.2% 3.4% 56.9 49.8
Stone & McCarthy Research --- --- 54.1 50.0
TD Securities --- --- 55.0 51.0
Thomson Reuters/IFR --- 2.6% 53.0 55.0
Tullett Prebon --- --- 58.0 49.0
UBS 0.3% --- 57.0 50.0
Union Investment --- --- --- 50.5
University of Maryland -0.3% 3.6% 59.0 51.0
Wells Fargo & Co. --- --- --- 49.9
WestLB AG --- 3.5% 59.0 49.0
Westpac Banking Co. --- --- 54.0 48.0
Woodley Park Research --- --- 53.7 50.3
Wrightson ICAP 0.4% --- 59.0 52.0
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