8-29 下周重要经济数据 zt

Hiring, Manufacturing Probably Cooled on Signs U.S. Recovery Is Stumbling

By Shobhana Chandra - Aug 29, 2010

Hiring and manufacturing probablycooled in August, showing companies are scaling back as the U.S.recovery shows signs of stumbling, economists said beforereports this week.

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies rose by47,000 this month after a 71,000 July gain, while theunemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent, according to the medianestimate of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Factoriesexpanded at the weakest pace in almost a year, an Institute forSupply Management report is forecast to show.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week thecentral bank will do “all that it can” to sustain an expansionthat’s still restrained by weaker-than-anticipated consumerspending and “painfully slow” job growth. Other reports thisweek may show household purchases are stagnating and serviceindustries, the biggest part of the economy, decelerated.

“We have a lot to worry about for the second half, as thisrecovery is losing steam,” said Scott Brown, chief economist atRaymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida.“The job market will remain pretty lackluster. There is nomagic fix in terms of policy.”

The jobs report, due from the Labor Department on Sept. 3,will also show overall payrolls fell 100,000 this month,reflecting the dismissal of temporary workers hired by thegovernment to conduct the census, according to the surveymedian. The unemployment rate probably rose from 9.5 percent.

Manufacturing Cools

The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM’s factory gauge dropped inAugust to 52.8, the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey. Thereport is due on Sept. 1 and figures greater than 50 signalexpansion.

The projected figure would be the weakest since September2009, indicating manufacturing, which spearheaded the recoveryas customers rebuilt inventories and shipped more goodsoverseas, may be starting to pull back.

The supply management’s group may report on Sept. 3 thatits services index, which covers almost 90 percent of theeconomy, declined to a six-month low of 53.2 in August from54.3, according to the survey.

A report from the Commerce Department last week showedorders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxyfor future business investment, slumped 8 percent in July.

Intel Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, last week cutits third-quarter revenue forecast. Sales are getting hurt by“weaker than expected demand for consumer PCs in maturemarkets,” Santa Clara, California-based Intel said in astatement, referring to personal computers.

‘Painfully Slow’

“The painfully slow recovery in the labor market hasrestrained growth in labor income, raised uncertainty about jobsecurity and prospects, and damped confidence,” Bernanke saidat the Kansas City Fed’s annual monetary symposium in JacksonHole, Wyoming, on Aug. 27.

The Fed “is prepared to provide additional monetaryaccommodation through unconventional measures if it provesnecessary, especially if the outlook were to deterioratesignificantly,” Bernanke said.

Stocks rallied and Treasuries retreated after Bernankepledged to safeguard the economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500Index gained 1.7 percent to 1,064.59 at the 4 p.m. close in NewYork on Aug. 27. The yield on the 10-year Treasury surged to2.65 percent from 2.48 percent late on the previous day.

Fed Meeting Minutes

The Fed on Aug. 31 will release the minutes of its lastmeeting, during which policy makers retained their commitment tokeep the benchmark interest rate close to zero for an “extendedperiod” and decided to maintain their holdings of securities tostop money from draining out of the financial system.

Cooling growth and a sluggish labor market may also feedvoter discontent heading into the November elections that willdetermine which party controls Congress.

Polls show the public is increasingly skeptical ofPresident Barack Obama’s performance. Public approval for thepresident’s handling of the economy was at 41 percent in an Aug.11-16 Associated Press-GfK survey, an all-time low and down from50 percent last July.

Households are trying to pay off debt and limit purchasesafter the U.S. lost more than 8 million jobs since the recessionbegan in December 2007. Consumer spending rose in July as autosales rebounded from the lowest level in four months, a reporttomorrow is projected to show.

Consumer Spending

Purchases climbed 0.3 percent after no change the priormonth, according to the survey median. The increase in spendingprobably also reflected the biggest gain in prices in a year,indicating the advance will be almost wiped away when thefigures are adjusted for inflation.

The lack of employment is restraining sentiment, raisingthe risk that household spending, which accounts for about 70percent of the economy, will falter. The Conference Board’sindex of consumer confidence, due on Aug. 31, was little-changedat 50.9 this month after 50.4 in July, according to the medianforecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Housing is also retreating. Gains in home prices probablycooled in June, a, Aug. 31 report from S&P/Case-Shiller isprojected to show. Two days later, data from the NationalAssociation of Realtors may show pending home sales, or thenumber of contracts to purchase previously owned houses, fell inJuly for the third consecutive month.

                        Bloomberg Survey

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                        Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
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Pers Inc MOM%             8/30      July      0.0%      0.3%
Pers Spend MOM%           8/30      July      0.0%      0.3%
Case Shiller Monthly YO   8/31      June      4.6%      3.6%
Chicago PM Index          8/31      Aug.      62.3      57.0
Consumer Conf Index       8/31      Aug.      50.4      50.9
ADP Payroll ,000’s        9/1       Aug.       42        17
ISM Manu Index            9/1       Aug.      55.5      52.8
Construct Spending MOM%   9/1       July      0.1%     -0.5%
Initial Claims ,000’s     9/2      28-Aug     473       475
Factory Orders MOM%       9/2       July     -1.2%      0.4%
Pending Homes MOM%        9/2       July     -2.6%     -1.0%
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s   9/3       Aug.      -131      -100
Private Payrolls ,000’s   9/3       Aug.       71        47
Manu Payrolls ,000’s      9/3       Aug.       36        10
Unemploy Rate %           9/3       Aug.      9.5%      9.6%
ISM NonManu Index         9/3       Aug.      54.3      53.2
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