交易禅
把握市场趋势；交易在当下；风险第一，盈利第二。
Home Sales Probably Fell, Goods Orders Up: U.S. Economy Preview
Home sales probably plunged in July,and orders for long-lasting goods climbed for the first time inthree months as the U.S. strained to sustain the recovery fromthe worst recession since the 1930s, economists said beforereports this week.
Purchases of new and existing houses dropped 12 percent toa 5.01 million annual pace, the lowest since March 2009,according to the median forecast of 54 economists surveyed byBloomberg News. Durable-goods bookings climbed 3 percent lastmonth, the survey showed.
“The economy is stuck in a rut,” said Russell Price, asenior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “Welost the momentum in the second quarter and now we’re reallystruggling to regain any momentum at all.”
Another report this week may show the economy grew fromApril through June even less than previously estimated, onereason why employment and consumer spending have failed to pickup. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may shed more lighton policy makers’ outlook this week when he addresses centralbankers from around the globe.
Bernanke will speak on Aug. 27 at the Fed Bank of KansasCity’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Earlier thismonth policy makers said the recovery was “more modest” thanthey had projected, prompting them to take additional steps torevive growth. The chairman may provide more insight into thecentral bank’s decision to maintain its asset holdings in a bidto prevent money from draining out of the banking system.
Sales Drop
Sales of previously owned homes slumped 13 percent in Julyto a 4.68 million annual rate, according to the survey medianbefore an Aug. 24 report from the National Association ofRealtors. Commerce Department figures the following day willshow demand for new houses was little changed at a 330,000annual rate, the survey showed. New-home sales reached a record-low 267,000 pace in May, the month after a government tax creditexpired.
The incentive worth as much as $8,000 propelled demandearlier in the year as buyers rushed to qualify ahead of theApril 30 deadline for signing contracts and original June 30deadline for closing deals. Sales have since plunged, indicatingAmericans lack the confidence to take on such a large purchase.
“There is definitely a pullback in demand,” Richard Dugas, chief executive officer of Pulte Group Inc., said in aninterview Aug. 20. “We really need the economy to improve andjob creation to take hold before people feel comfortablestepping into a home.”
Builder Outlook
Pulte, the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, on Aug. 4reported its first quarterly profit since 2006 after a taxbenefit and sales boost from its purchase of Centex Corp.
Orders for goods meant to last at least three yearsincreased in July after falling 1.2 percent and 0.7 percent inthe previous two months, economists project another CommerceDepartment report on Aug. 25 will show.
Business investment in capital equipment, includingcomputers and machinery, is one of the remaining bright spots inthe economy.
That may explain why shares of machinery makers areoutperforming builder shares and the broader market. TheStandard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index has climbed 10percent so far this year, compared with a 12 percent drop in theS&P Supercomposite Homebuilder Index. The S&P 500 Index is down3.9 percent since Dec. 31.
Since the advance estimate for second-quarter growth wasreleased on July 30, reports have shown the trade deficitswelled in June more than the government had projected,inventories grew at a slower pace and there was less of arebound in commercial construction.
Less Growth
The Commerce Department’s update on Aug. 27 will thereforeshow gross domestic product grew at 1.4 percent pace, theweakest quarter of the recovery that began in the middle of lastyear, rather than the 2.4 percent rate calculated last month.
Claims for jobless benefits, due from the Labor Departmenton Aug. 26, retreated to 491,000 last week from a nine-monthhigh of half a million the prior week, the survey showed. Thesurge in applications over the past month indicates the labormarket may be taking a turn for the worse as the economy slows.
President Barack Obama last week seized on the jump inclaims to draw attention to stalled legislation aimed at helpingsmall businesses.
The Democrats have proposed a plan that would ease theterms of loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administrationand provide $12 billion in tax breaks to small businesses.Action was blocked by Republicans who criticized the proposal asbeing similar to the $700 billion bank bailout of 2008.
Jobs and the economy are likely to be key issues inNovember elections that will determine which political partycontrols congress for the next two years of Obama’s term.
Bloomberg Survey
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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Exist Homes Mlns 8/24 July 5.37 4.68
Exist Homes MOM% 8/24 July -5.1% -12.9%
Durables Orders MOM% 8/25 July -1.2% 3.0%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 8/25 July -0.9% 0.5%
New Home Sales ,000’s 8/25 July 330 330
New Home Sales MOM% 8/25 July 23.6% 0.0%
Initial Claims ,000’s 8/26 21-Aug 500 491
GDP Annual QOQ% 8/27 2Q S 2.4% 1.4%
U of Mich Conf. Index 8/27 Aug. F 69.6 69.6
