08-16 weekly 重要经济数据

Factory production and housingstarts probably rose in July as part of the U.S. economy’suneven transition to a slower pace of growth in the second halfof the year, economists said reports this week will show.

Output increased 0.5 percent, led by a rebound in automaking as fewer plants closed for mid-year retooling, accordingto the median estimate of 57 economists surveyed by BloombergNews before Federal Reserve figures Aug. 17. Another report mayshow work began on more houses for the first time since April.

Manufacturing, which spearheaded the recovery from theworst recession since the 1930s, will probably cool in comingmonths as a slowdown in consumer spending leads to fewer orders.A recovery that Fed policy makers said was “more modest” thanthey projected prompted central bankers last week to takeadditional steps to revive the economy.

“Growth is beginning to fade,” said Guy LeBas, chieffixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC inPhiladelphia. “The Fed is definitely justified in expressingconcern.”

Automakers kept factories open last month after pullingback during the economic slump. Chrysler Group LLC slashedproduction by half in 2009, and General Motors Co. cut output by44 percent as the companies went through bankruptcy and extendedsummer plant shutdowns. Ford Motor Co., the only major U.S.automaker to avoid bankruptcy, lowered output 16 percent,according to J.D. Power & Associates.

This year, GM kept most of its U.S. plants open during thetraditional shutdowns, a move that economists said propelledauto output last month.

Ford’s Plans

At the same time, automakers aren’t going to charge aheadin coming months. Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford has no plans toincrease production of any of its current models because demandis fragile in the weak economic recovery, George Pipas, theautomaker’s sales analyst, said in an interview earlier thismonth.

Manufacturers may face smaller gains in coming months ascompanies see less need for inventory rebuilding and thescarcity of jobs restrains demand. Retail sales rose less thanforecast in July and consumer confidence in August held near aneight-month low, reports showed last week.

Fed policy makers, who on Aug. 10 renewed a pledge to holdinterest rates near zero, said they will maintain their holdingsof securities to prevent money from being drained out of thefinancial system, their first attempt to bolster the economy inmore than a year.

‘More Modest’

“The pace of recovery in output and employment has slowedin recent months,” central bank officials said in a statementfollowing their meeting. The “economic recovery is likely to bemore modest in the near term than had been anticipated.”

Regional factory reports are projected to showmanufacturing held up this month. The Fed Bank of New York’sfigures tomorrow will show factories accelerated after growingat the slowest pace of the year in July. Data from thePhiladelphia Fed, due Aug. 19, may also show a pickup in Augustfrom the slowest advance in almost a year, according toeconomists surveyed.

Shares of manufacturers are outperforming the broadermarket. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index,which includes Deere & Co. and Caterpillar Inc., has climbed 9.5percent since the end of June, compared with a 4.7 percent gainin the S&P 500 Index.

Homebuyer Credit

The end of a government tax incentive, for which buyers hadto sign purchase agreements by April 30 in order to qualify, hascaused swings in housing data. It will take several months forthe effect to work its way out of the numbers, economists said.

The Commerce Department may report on Aug. 17 that workbegan on houses at a 560,000 annual rate last month, up from a549,000 pace in June that was the lowest in eight months,according to the Bloomberg survey median. Building permits, agauge of future construction, fell 0.7 percent to a 579,000annual pace, economists predicted.

Builders remain pessimistic. The National Association ofHome Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index rose to 15 in Augustfrom a one-year low of 14 in July, economists projected.Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents said conditionswere poor. The report is due Aug. 16.

Other figures may show the economic recovery will losemomentum, while inflation is contained. The New York-basedConference Board’s leading economic indicators index, whichmeasures the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.1percent in July after dropping 0.2 percent the previous month,according to the median in the Bloomberg survey. The measure,due Aug. 19, climbed 0.9 percent a month on average in the sixmonths to March.

Labor Department figures on Aug. 17 may show the producerprice gauge rose last month for the first time since March,according to the survey.

                        Bloomberg Survey
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                        Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
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Empire Manu. Index        8/16      Aug.      5.1       8.3
NAHB Housing Index        8/16      Aug.       14        15
PPI  MOM%                 8/17      July     -0.5%      0.2%
Core PPI MOM%             8/17      July      0.1%      0.2%
Housing Starts ,000’s     8/17      July      549       560
Housing Starts MOM%       8/17      July     -5.0%      2.0%
Building Permits ,000’s   8/17      July      583       579
Building Permits MOM%     8/17      July      1.6%     -0.7%
Ind. Prod. MOM%           8/17      July      0.1%      0.5%
Cap. Util. %              8/17      July     74.1%     74.5%
Initial Claims ,000’s     8/19     7-Aug      484       478
Philly Fed Index          8/19      Aug.      5.1       7.0
LEI  MOM%                 8/19      July     -0.2%      0.1%
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