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Consumer Spending Probably Spurred Growth: U.S. Economy Preview
By Timothy R. Homan
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending probablyaccelerated in the first quarter, shepherding the U.S. expansioninto 2010, economists project a report this week will show.
Gross domestic product grew at a 3.4 percent annual paceafter increasing at a 5.6 percent rate in the last three monthsof 2009, according to the median estimate of 67 economistssurveyed by Bloomberg News. Household purchases may have climbedby the most in three years.
“Jobs are the critical component of the entire scenario,”said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise FinancialInc. in Detroit. “The signs do point to impending employmentgains.”
Improving demand boosts the odds the recovery will be self-sustaining, benefiting companies such as Starbucks Corp., asrising sales lead to additional hiring, which in turn fosterseven more spending. A lack of inflation gives Federal Reservepolicy makers the green light to keep interest rates low whenthey meet this week to ensure the world’s largest economycontinues to grow.
Central bankers will keep the target for the benchmarkborrowing cost on overnight loans between banks near zero at theconclusion of their two-day meeting on April 28, economistssurveyed forecast.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress on April 14 thathigh unemployment and weak construction were among the“significant restraints” on the pace of growth. At their March16 meeting, central bankers said economic conditions are likelyto warrant “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds ratefor an extended period.”
GDP Report
The Commerce Department’s advance estimate of first-quarterGDP is due April 30. The world’s largest economy grew at thefastest pace in six years during the last three months of 2009after expanding at a 2.2 percent rate in the third quarter.
For all of 2009, the economy shrank 2.4 percent in 2009,the worst single-year performance since 1946.
Consumer spending probably increased at a 3.1 percentannual rate last quarter, almost double the 1.6 percent pace ofthe previous three months, the GDP report is also projected toshow.
Households led the expansion last quarter, taking the batonfrom gains in production that reflected efforts to stabilizestockpiles. A swing to smaller inventory reductions accountedfor 3.8 percentage points of growth in the fourth quarter.
Inventory Boost
That contribution, while diminished, probably continuedlast quarter as companies boosted stockpiles for the first timein two years, according to economists such as economist AaronSmith of Moody’s Economy.com.
Inventories climbed 0.5 percent in February, the fourthgain in five months, according to Commerce Department data.
Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight inLexington, Massachusetts, is among those saying more jobs are anecessary component of a sustained recovery. Payrolls rose by162,000 in March, the most in three years, the Labor Departmentreported April 2. The unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for athird month and has not increased since reaching a 26-year highof 10.1 percent in October.
Stocks gained in the first quarter of the year on mountingsigns the economic recovery was taking hold. The Standard &Poor’s 500 Index climbed 4.9 percent from January through March,and has increased 9.2 percent so far this month.
Households may become more optimistic as the labor marketimproves. A Conference Board report on April 27 may show itsmeasure of consumer confidence rose this month to 53.5 from52.5, according to the survey median. The gauge averaged 45 in2009, and 98 during the economic expansion that ended inDecember 2007.
‘Little Bit Better’
“We’re benefiting from a consumer who’s feeling just alittle bit better,” Troy Alstead, chief financial officer ofStarbucks, said in a telephone interview after the Seattle-basedcompany announced earnings on April 21.
Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee-shop operator, raisedits annual forecast after reporting second-quarter profit thatbeat analysts’ estimates. The chain’s sales at stores open atleast a year advanced 7 percent in the U.S., driven by a 3percent increase in the number of customer visits and a 5percent jump in the amount of the average sale.
Confidence measures may give conflicting signals thismonth. The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumersentiment for April probably fell to 71 from 73.6 the priormonth, according to the survey median. The figures are due April30. A preliminary reading earlier this month came in at 69.5.
Signs of stabilization in the housing market may also helpshore up confidence. A report from S&P/Case-Shiller, due April27, may show home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas increased1.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the first year-over-year rise since December 2006, according to the surveymedian.
Bloomberg Survey
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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Case Shiller Monthly MO 4/27 Feb. 0.3% -0.2%
Case Shiller Monthly YO 4/27 Feb. -0.7% 1.3%
Case Shiller Monthly In 4/27 Feb. 145.3 144.8
Consumer Conf Index 4/27 April 52.5 53.5
Initial Claims ,000’s 4/29 24-Apr 456 445
Cont. Claims ,000’s 4/29 17-Apr 4646 4613
GDP Annual QOQ% 4/30 4Q A 5.6% 3.4%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 4/30 4Q A 1.6% 3.1%
GDP Prices QOQ% 4/30 4Q A 0.5% 0.9%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 4/30 4Q A 1.8% 0.5%
Employ Costs QOQ% 4/30 1Q 0.5% 0.5%
Chicago PM Index 4/30 April 58.8 60.0
U of Mich Conf. Index 4/30 April F 69.5 71.0
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To contact the reporter on this story:Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 25, 2010 00:00 EDT
