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S&P 500 Backed by Most Momentum Since 1986: Technical Analysis
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By Lu Wang
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks almost have the most momentum since 1986.
The 14-day relative strength index for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has exceeded 65 since March 5, the longest stretch since 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Today would mark the 27th consecutive day, the most in 24 years.
RSI identifies possible turning points by measuring the degree that gains and losses outpace each other. While readings of 70 or more are considered evidence that an index may decline, the current streak suggests investors are reluctant to sell, making a collapse unlikely, said Joseph Keating.
“A lot of investors missed out on the run-up and are scrambling to get in the market,” said Keating, chief investment officer of Raleigh, North Carolina-based RBC Bank, which oversees $3 billion. The RSI “may portend that the market is going to have to move sideways and consolidate a bit.”
The S&P 500 has surged 77 percent since March 9, 2009, in the biggest advance since the 1930s as the economy recovered and more companies beat profit estimates than at any time since at least 1993. Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, yesterday posted first-quarter earnings excluding some items that topped the average analyst estimate by 8.7 percent.
Still, many investors missed the equity rally. Money added to U.S. bond funds has exceeded the amount stashed in stock funds by about 16-to-1, according to data compiled by the Washington-based Investment Company Institute.
No Correction
Robert Sluymer, a New York-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets Corp., said he doesn’t see an imminent correction, or decline of at least 10 percent, because indicators such as the ratio of rising to falling stocks show no sign of deterioration.
The cumulative advance-decline line for securities listed on the New York Stock Exchange increased 0.5 percent yesterday. The index represents the number of daily gains for individual securities minus the number of declines since its August 1996 inception.
“This type of overbought condition can persist for many weeks and for many months,” Sluymer said. “There is very little evidence of technical decay.”
When the RSI using 14 days of trading stayed above 65 this long in 1995, the S&P 500 went on to post an annual advance of 34 percent. It then rose at least 19 percent a year from 1996 to 1999.
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Lu Wang
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks almost have the most momentum since 1986.
The 14-day relative strength index for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has exceeded 65 since March 5, the longest stretch since 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Today would mark the 27th consecutive day, the most in 24 years.
RSI identifies possible turning points by measuring the degree that gains and losses outpace each other. While readings of 70 or more are considered evidence that an index may decline, the current streak suggests investors are reluctant to sell, making a collapse unlikely, said Joseph Keating.
“A lot of investors missed out on the run-up and are scrambling to get in the market,” said Keating, chief investment officer of Raleigh, North Carolina-based RBC Bank, which oversees $3 billion. The RSI “may portend that the market is going to have to move sideways and consolidate a bit.”
The S&P 500 has surged 77 percent since March 9, 2009, in the biggest advance since the 1930s as the economy recovered and more companies beat profit estimates than at any time since at least 1993. Alcoa Inc., the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, yesterday posted first-quarter earnings excluding some items that topped the average analyst estimate by 8.7 percent.
Still, many investors missed the equity rally. Money added to U.S. bond funds has exceeded the amount stashed in stock funds by about 16-to-1, according to data compiled by the Washington-based Investment Company Institute.
No Correction
Robert Sluymer, a New York-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets Corp., said he doesn’t see an imminent correction, or decline of at least 10 percent, because indicators such as the ratio of rising to falling stocks show no sign of deterioration.
The cumulative advance-decline line for securities listed on the New York Stock Exchange increased 0.5 percent yesterday. The index represents the number of daily gains for individual securities minus the number of declines since its August 1996 inception.
“This type of overbought condition can persist for many weeks and for many months,” Sluymer said. “There is very little evidence of technical decay.”
When the RSI using 14 days of trading stayed above 65 this long in 1995, the S&P 500 went on to post an annual advance of 34 percent. It then rose at least 19 percent a year from 1996 to 1999.
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