何处可以获得更高投资回报（股市篇）

如果你看过众多Elliot Wave的分析，他们已经预测了股市到顶好多次了。以前在华尔街做期货，曾作了很多波浪理论的分析。但结果发现，即使配以黄金分割数字，周期分析，和Gann理论， 波浪的划分实际是一个很主观的过程。能预测到股市的顶和底，基本上是幸运的因素。 我的做法，是不逆势而行，再用黄金分割来决定进场点和出场点。 让市场来告诉你是升势还是跌势。 

股市从去年三月份667涨到现在，用行家的话来说，容易赚的钱已经被赚去了。今后一段时间，上下波动将愈为激烈，短期走势愈难判断，技术上的操作愈为关键。 

我的看法是S & P 再试1150高峰的机会大于下破1040。近一年前的涨势仍未改变。其中一个很重要的指标是股市在二月五日的表现。 当时大市急跌下探1043，这个位置是7/9的重要底部869和1150的38.2%。 一般来说，跌得越急的市，越难持久。市场在收市前不到两个小时内急升逾20点，在蜡烛图形成很长引线，其力度决定了之后几天的走势。果不其然，市场在没有太多悬念的情况下一次性收复超过61.8%的失地，确定了1040是买家坚守的重要地盘。 至少在短期内，趁低吸纳仍是我的策略。

个股方面，如果读者有看我2/6的博文，应颇有斩获。当时特别推介高息的BX，另外还有IBKR， YHOO 和NG.  目前，已经平掉YHOO和NG，增加COWN并加仓BX和IBKR。 此外，地区性银行去年表现极差，今年应该可以有比较好的回报。这方面的ETF有KRE. 长线可考虑开始进高息的Verizon（VZ）。最近有一只船运垃圾股TBSI两次探底，一旦经济回暖，上升的空间很大。  BAC 是金融大股中最有潜力的。回到$15左右可以大量持仓。 

如果要承受风险能力有限，可以用沽空CALLS收入买PUTS。不少大行如美林都有五花八门的所谓“结构产品”，有保本的，有保15%的，并把收入放大两倍的， 等等。还有一种做法，是如果历史上同步而行但却短期出现严重背离的股，可以做相反买卖。最近就作了一个买入ABX卖空FCX的交易。

祝好运！

（本文投资观点纯属个人看法） 

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[蛮论天下]

What I meant was there were instruments that guarantee that if the markets drops but within the threshold level (let's say 15% off the starting value), you are still guaranteed your principal; obviously there will be a trade-off on the upside, just like everything else. I think even 10% is a pretty good cushion since it offers some peace of mind if the market goes against you. There are, however, "Structured Products" that amplify the upside by some good percentages. In my opinion, these types of products have their values for the risk-averse investors.
Most of these instruments are not listed so you will need to have an account with ML or whoever. For example, they have the so-called Capped LIRNs® Linked to the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.
– If the Market Measure increases from its starting value, a return over the original
offering price equal to 200% of such increase, subject to the Cap
– If the Market Measure decreases from its starting value, but does not decrease
below the Threshold Value, a return of 0.00% over the original offering price
– If the Market Measure decreases below the Threshold Value, a negative return on
the original offering price equal to the percentage of such decrease below the
Threshold Value, with up to 85% of principal at risk