invest2win
invest 2 win
11/12/2009
你或许会问，＂我只是投资美国国内的股市（DOMESTIC），只有少量的国际基金（INTERNATIONAL），美元的汇率和我有什么关系？＂
其实，关系很大。这都是源于＂carry trade＂。
所为的＂carry trade＂就是借贷（borrow／short）低利息的货币而投资到风险大的资产（risky asset），如股票，黄金，石油等，以寻求更大的收益。因为日本实施零利息的政策已经很久了，所以很长时间以来，日元一直是国际炒家用来作＂carry trade＂的货币。在２００８年中油价达到＄１４７时，日元的汇率一度达到新低。但自从美联储把利息降到零后，美元已取代日元而作为＂carry trade＂的货币。
美国的失业率居高不下，１１月的劳工部统计的失业率更是达到了两位数。所以美联储在最新的会议通告中强调超低（exceptionally low）利息还会持续很长一段时间（extended period of time）。这无疑是给炒家继续＂短＂（short）美元一个定心丸。直接的结果就是美元汇率的下跌。
所以最近的风险资产的价格不断的上涨，很大的原因是美元的汇率持续下滑的结果。（DXY just made a new low since March 2009 at 74.77）。这也可以解释为什么股市不怕高失业率而创出了自三月以来的新高。
这个情况会持续多久呢？很难说。因为左右汇率的因素太多，＂carry trade＂只是其一。但当炒家反向操作（unwind）时，美元汇率就会回调，其后果就是风险资产的价格下跌。这就是所谓的风险回避交易（risk averse trade）。
其实，２００８年中就是一个很好的例子。其后发生的事相信大家还记得。所以，I２W认为市场风险比较大。
I don't know about the politics, since politician have a differnt agenda. But when politic and economy entangled together, like they did in the aftermath of Leahman bankrupcy in Sep 2008, that is not a good sign. So, if the next bail out bill passed in the congress, it is time to go short the market. :-)
thank you so much for the info! I would say that the status of those current bills on the Congress floor would be a good indicator for downfall to begin, do you agree?
As said in the article, it is hard to predict when the risky/reflation trade will be over. There is a saying, "picking a market top or bottom is an exercise of futility." But the scary thing is I don't remember a time in recent history where so many risky asset’s fate are tied to single currency's move. Not even middle of 2008 come close, when only oil and other commodities were making new high, while stock is already into the correction for over half year (since Oct 2007). If we take a look at separate risky asset's recent price move, there is already some crack showings:
1) gold is making all-time high
2) oil is consolidating after the low 80s recovery high.
3) stock just made recovery high in DOW and SP500, but NDX has not made recovery high.
This is non-confirmation in technical term. If the non-confirmation persist, all the risky asset's prices will be resolved to the downside,
Seasonally, stock is in the benign Nov-Dec period. So, it might take some time for it to roll over. My hunch is when the calendar turn (to 1/1/2010), so is the price of stock. I remembered when 1/1/2008 rolled in, stock made a quick dive in the first calendar week.
disclaimer: this is my personal opinion.
鲁比尼已经预警这个carry trade 将造成资产泡沫。你估计这个泡沫什么时候会爆？