正文
纯属个人经验,没有任何指导意义.还是灌水,争取灌点那种比较纯粹的水.
FA是慢性子的活,别指望第二天就翻翻.不可能的,但长期的回报会不错. 种瓜得瓜的那种.
Patience is virtue, virtue is grace...所以FA讲究的是那种graceful reward,象慢三,华尔兹...
条件是在initial run-up之前,一旦上去了就只有能pull back再说了.也可能买入以后几天会跌下来,然后再run-up,股票跟人一样,也要休息地.但一般遇到以下几种情况,我都至少会严密关注,甚至长期持有,到一个波段gracefully finished.
- Company announcements like new product line, or new deals,etc. (expect higher revenue and growth down the road.)
- Consistent Q by Q growth, showed signs of gross margin and earnings improvement.
- Recently above industry performance.
- Monopoly player (like google) until monopoly is vanishing.
- Better inventory control.
- FA does not change much but stock price is beaten down hard.
- Positive news like beat Wall Street expectations on earnings, and future guidance.
- Near-term catalysts.
- Cut or significantly reduce expenses 比如裁员 (短期看好,长期看发展)
- Company is doing a road show (showing to Wall Street their product lines and future) 差的公司自然没东西去show
- Acquisition of competitors (让自己更强大的办法有两个,一个是自己壮大,另一个就消灭敌人)
- Announcement of being acquired (俺的二奶投入产出理论. 被人包了说明自身的价值.自身条件差的想让人家包人家也不愿意,投入与产出不匹配)
- New management teams (新官上任三把火,点燃了自己,也照亮了别人)
- Joining a strategic partner (漫画三国.先把Pie做大了再自相残杀.这点中概也慢慢明白起来了. )
- Upgrade by Wall Street or analysts (有点慢,一般upgrade以后就开始南行)
- IPOs after lockup period.
- Insiders and/or management buying.
- Institution holding (%过高,过低都不好)
- Company buys back its own stocks at lower price.
- First time split at higher price (only the first split,要结合market cap和floating shares同时看)
- Companies never split in its history (跟上面看上去似乎有点冲突.从不split的好公司含金量高)
- Undervalues compare to its own history and industry peers (但不一定准,有的undervalue stocks always traded at discounted price)
- Liquidation and current valuation of the company.
- General market trend.
- Pay attention to the competitors and entire sector.(benchmark. 有比较才有鉴别.)
FA选股,TA选时.要想play the game to maximum,还是要两者结合,认真做功课.单用TA是quick money, quick loss,但能帮助FA找到一个合理的介入时间和价格.FA很累,很累的,要看很多东西,三表,10-K,10-Q 8-xx什么的.不是一般人能忍受的孤独与痛苦.不好玩地.
暂时就想到这些.这里的高手云集,俺就是个捣乱老大后院埋下的一棵小毛毛葱.胡说八道地灌水,个人经验,没什么价值.
FA是慢性子的活,别指望第二天就翻翻.不可能的,但长期的回报会不错. 种瓜得瓜的那种.
Patience is virtue, virtue is grace...所以FA讲究的是那种graceful reward,象慢三,华尔兹...
条件是在initial run-up之前,一旦上去了就只有能pull back再说了.也可能买入以后几天会跌下来,然后再run-up,股票跟人一样,也要休息地.但一般遇到以下几种情况,我都至少会严密关注,甚至长期持有,到一个波段gracefully finished.
- Company announcements like new product line, or new deals,etc. (expect higher revenue and growth down the road.)
- Consistent Q by Q growth, showed signs of gross margin and earnings improvement.
- Recently above industry performance.
- Monopoly player (like google) until monopoly is vanishing.
- Better inventory control.
- FA does not change much but stock price is beaten down hard.
- Positive news like beat Wall Street expectations on earnings, and future guidance.
- Near-term catalysts.
- Cut or significantly reduce expenses 比如裁员 (短期看好,长期看发展)
- Company is doing a road show (showing to Wall Street their product lines and future) 差的公司自然没东西去show
- Acquisition of competitors (让自己更强大的办法有两个,一个是自己壮大,另一个就消灭敌人)
- Announcement of being acquired (俺的二奶投入产出理论. 被人包了说明自身的价值.自身条件差的想让人家包人家也不愿意,投入与产出不匹配)
- New management teams (新官上任三把火,点燃了自己,也照亮了别人)
- Joining a strategic partner (漫画三国.先把Pie做大了再自相残杀.这点中概也慢慢明白起来了. )
- Upgrade by Wall Street or analysts (有点慢,一般upgrade以后就开始南行)
- IPOs after lockup period.
- Insiders and/or management buying.
- Institution holding (%过高,过低都不好)
- Company buys back its own stocks at lower price.
- First time split at higher price (only the first split,要结合market cap和floating shares同时看)
- Companies never split in its history (跟上面看上去似乎有点冲突.从不split的好公司含金量高)
- Undervalues compare to its own history and industry peers (但不一定准,有的undervalue stocks always traded at discounted price)
- Liquidation and current valuation of the company.
- General market trend.
- Pay attention to the competitors and entire sector.(benchmark. 有比较才有鉴别.)
FA选股,TA选时.要想play the game to maximum,还是要两者结合,认真做功课.单用TA是quick money, quick loss,但能帮助FA找到一个合理的介入时间和价格.FA很累,很累的,要看很多东西,三表,10-K,10-Q 8-xx什么的.不是一般人能忍受的孤独与痛苦.不好玩地.
暂时就想到这些.这里的高手云集,俺就是个捣乱老大后院埋下的一棵小毛毛葱.胡说八道地灌水,个人经验,没什么价值.
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