石油已经或已接近底部，现在是投资的最佳时机

不用说现在大家现在已经知道，最近stupid Dollar在高位，导致大宗商品暴跌。
石油已经或已接近底部，现在是投资的最佳时机！！！

没有股票经验的投资者经常会问：有钱就是不知道怎么投，投什么。

石油ETF如： UWTI, UCO, USO等等，只适合于短期操作，挣钱就跑。
如果想稳定，长期投资，还是要投资一些大的公司，短期稳定的投资也可以考虑。
 

到目前为止，在2015年，石油价格暴跌16％。然而，在同一时期，燃油价格却已经跃升6％。这是一个不正常的现象。石油在底部或接近于底部！

历史证明，如果你知道在哪里投资, 利用这种不正常现象，在未来数月make 翻几翻的涨幅。
同志们这是一个千载难逢的机会，要抓住阿！！！！！！！

There's a huge supply of oil in the market. The most recent EIA Petroleum Status Report showed an inventory build of 10.3 million barrels of oil, more than double analysts' expectations for an increase of 4 million.

你可以从下面的图表看，对于大多数2015年，库存（蓝色）已不只是一直在增长......他们一直在持续超出预期（橙色线）。

一般情况下，如果他们看到供应过剩，产油国的生产速度就会减慢，但现在的情况是他们一直没有这样做而是不减产。石油出入库超出预期，无处为原油走，存储价格溢价，石油出入库的唯一途径之一是油价下跌。

Well-respected analysts at both JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) 相信油价可能会维持低于50美元，至少在2015年的上半年...可能还要低，现在到了45，会到40吗？如果市场不能找到一种方法，to drain the current surplus就有可能。再加上现在的强势美元更增加了这种可能性。

另一种有趣的现象是：根据EIA的数据，燃料的平均价格（所有等级和配方），从1月中旬以来一直在稳步节节攀升，尽管石油过剩，现在是2.49美元。

为了进一步证明这一点脱节，我用另一个图表来显示。下面的图表显示了裂解价差，这是业内的行话为原油和石油产品从中提取之间的价格差：

当crack spread上升，则意味着该石油提取物，如燃料，上升比原油的价格要快。年初至今，价差已经从3.50美元跃升至19.90美元 - 增加了469％！！！The current spread is also twice as wide as the 20-year average of $8.73.

而large spread不利于大多数石油生产国，但是it's great for炼油厂 -- 即把原油到馏分油（像汽油）的公司。当投入成本（油）低，但燃油价格不断上涨，这些炼油厂可以捕捉到更大的利润空间。these refineries can capture bigger margins。

结论1：投资炼油厂应该比单纯投资原油有‘钱’图，如果油一直处于低位。

And there's one best-in-breed refiner that is not only cheap from a fundamental standpoint, but also exceptional at squeezing dollars out of low-grade crude: Valero (NYSE: VLO).

所有美国炼油厂的，我最喜欢VLO，因为其庞大的规模，独特的技术优势和较低的估值相对于行业。


对比原油图，你会发现油价暴跌的时候，特别是上一个星期，它反而上升，，，汽油价格不降反而上升，就是这个道理。当然也有炼油工人罢工的因数。

下面是从它的网页抄来的：

Valero operates 15 refineries, with a capacity of 2.9 million barrels per day -- 15.7% of U.S. daily oil consumption reported in 2014. In addition to wholesaling its petroleum products to other distributors, Valero also operates its own fuel stations in nearly every state. This allows unique price controls for its final product.

The company operates two unique and proprietary devices called hydrocrackers, which are uncommon in the industry. Hydrocracking units transform cheaper, lower-grade feedstock (oil) into high-quality distillates (gasoline) at more efficient rates than the traditional equipment used throughout most of the industry.

Valero's two hydrocrackers, located at its Port Arthur refinery and St. Charles plant, give it an added advantage over competitors when it comes to margin and the creation of products such as jet fuel, kerosene and diesel. VLO has been increasing output of these hydrocrackers over the past two years and is continuing to push for further expansion.

但真正的机会在于一个事实，即VLO现在买油比去年同期便宜50％，而其销售价格只降低了35％。令人难以置信的是，其股价比同时期去年还低，尽管有便宜的成本以及增加了消费和提高利了润率。

When Valero hit a high of $59.69 in May 2014, oil was trading at $100 per barrel and a gallon of gasoline cost $3.76. Today, crude is trading for $50 and gas is at $2.45 -- a much better profit ratio and overall environment for refiners -- but VLO shares are only trading for ~$58.

I expect VLO's earnings per share (EPS) to hit $6.50 in 2015. Using a forward P/E of 10 (a realistic multiple looking at five years of forward P/E history) puts VLO at a fair value of $65. That's only 11% above current prices. But using my profit amplifying strategy, we could make 69% in only three months.

我的计划是买VLO Jun 55 Calls for $5.90 or less.

This call option has a delta of 65, which means it will move roughly $0.65 for every dollar that VLO, but it costs a fraction of the price of the stock.

The trade breaks even at $60.90 ($55 strike price plus $5.90 options premium), which is 4% above current prices.

If VLO hits my $65 price target, the call options will be worth at least $10 ($65 stock target minus $55 strike price). That means we can make 70% from an 11% increase in share price.

请注意这个策略采用的是：the type of lower-risk/high-reward trades Jared publishes each week in his new Profit Amplifier newsletter。

总之油的底部，你的投资机会！！！！！！！！！

除此以外还可以考虑分散投资，其他大的石油公司如XOM：

多么漂亮的瀑布呀！buy Dip!!!

XOM just raised 8 billion in credit offerings and has better credit rating than the USA...................

Now if we could just figure which companies they will acquire.......... Those will be buys now....

还有：

EOG disclosed plans to grow its uncompleted stock by 85 to

~285 wells, or approximately 16% of the number it expects to drill this year.

这样的好几会，，，我就是没钱！


炼油公司：好几会！！！

股价低的大公司！

结束语：

机会在眼前，看你抓不抓得住。

股市有风险，请您慎重考虑。

不是投资建议，请自行分析判断。

Mar.15, 2015