给牛军兄弟们提个醒，有两个现象需要我们建立防卫心态

最近大盘看起来一路走高，但是有两个事情是负面的，我比较在意，说出来和股友们交流一下。

1. % stock above 40 day PMA 现在只有 39%, 这个指数在6月份到过 72之后一路走低。

   % stock above 200 day pma 现在只有 50%， 这个指数在 6月份到过 60后，也是一路走低。

上述两个指标相对于大盘的新高而言， 不匹配或者说不同步。不是个好现象。

2. retail investors have poured into the market as confirmed by the record low levels of cash at retail and discount brokers such as Charles Schwab, where cash as a percentage of client assets fell to 10.4%, matching the record low level reached in January

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-30/schwab-cash-levels-hit-all-time-low-retail-investors-flood-market

所以呢，现在保守收缩比较好。

我现在是50% cash, 40% long US stock，10%做空Emerging Markets because it's a sitting duck.

PS. 3.4月份我说坚决看待大盘是调整不是熊市，牛牛逢低捞进等着夏天数万，没说错吧？