又到赚钱容易时？

昨天说市场在假摔，今日即继续向上突破，验证了我前不久所提出的道指7987，SPX837为下一目标位的设想。有意思的是，今天是纳指率先发力，出现了三大指数轮番走强的局面，可见市场后续强势可期。短线继续维持对SPX866、道指83xx的判断；再往上看到多少？891，952，现在说意义不很大，罗马不是一天建成的，本轮开涨以来，道指我也是先看7260，然后7500，然后7987……反正只要趋势在，就大胆hold。SPX颈线位上移至786附近，跌破此线则宣布趋势崩溃。

 

大多数时候股市上赚钱是不易的，大多数人在股市上是不怎么赚钱的。

 

然而现在，股市又到了make easy money的时候。SPX从666起步，两周多时间轻舟已过万重山。期间甚至都没有像样的回档。在这种情况下，你所有要做的就是buy and hold，let your profits RUN。怎么听起来很耳熟？是的，这种投资策略在过去一年多以来屡遭败绩，几乎被人们放弃，这三周却又变成最行之有效的办法，真是三十年河东转河西。这说明了什么？我今天不是要探讨投资策略的，我想说的是，市场自身运行规律已经发生了某种微妙的变化。

 

打开K线图，这种连续大阳之后继续拉大阳的现象似乎已经很久不见了。

 

GDP下降了？没问题，人们预计的本来更糟糕呢。

 

失业率越来越高？Fine，等到失业率升到12％没准就是经济见底的最有效信号，市场巴不得失业率降得更快一些呢……

 

IBM，GOOGLE们也要裁员？无所谓，反正虱子多了不咬人，嘿嘿

 

技术指标超买？who cares? 涨了这么多不是还在8000点以下嘛。

 

…………

 

你能感觉到这些市场心态的微妙变化吗？

 

前期上涨的急先锋花旗今日下跌，大盘却依然保持了上扬。这是个好现象，说明市场弱化了前期炒作超跌反弹的预期，进而向纵深扩展，借一句套话，有点儿像可持续发展的样子。如果花旗走软，大盘可保短线无碍；如果花旗再次发力，也将会给予大盘上扬的动力。

 

总之，不盲目看多，更不盲目看空，只要关键位置不破，趋势尚在，手里的货就要拿紧了。

 

前几天在GOOGLE 论坛上看到一段西人关于SPX的讨论，贴上来和大家消遣，请注意日期是3月20日，SPX768左右。

 

 
From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:33:49 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 12:33 pm
Subject: begin to short sp 500 again..
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it is time to short sp 500, take ur profit while u can.

From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:50:51 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 3:50 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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Totally agree. We are going through the floor, much lower than those
"market experts" predicted before. S&P500 on 500. That sounds good for
this market, this economy and this government.

 

From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:03:12 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 4:03 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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agreed...  you guys are the only realists
on the boards.. follks are talking about rallys..
I guess it could rally before the bottom ..kind
of like a flaming fireball rolling down hill and
before it hits the bottom it rolls up a small bump
or two

  
From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:08:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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The sooner the markets go down, the sooner I can go long again.

On Mar 20, 11:03 am, [e-mail] wrote:

  
[e-mail]    View profile   Translated (View Original) 
  More options Mar 23, 12:39 pm 

From: [e-mail]
Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 08:39:20 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Mar 23 2009 12:39 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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You think it is time to short when the technicals indicate we are
breaking out of a downtrend.  Good luck amateur.  You're just guessing
at this point, hopefully you realize that you are guessing.

[new88]

感谢!一直不敢再进场,因为觉得已经涨了这么久了,应该有个像样的回调了,结果左等右等还没见,呵呵.

[随机行走]

谢谢！每日必读，受益匪浅。