别摸我2025-10-17 17:17:35回复悄悄话
Heavy rare earth mines resource in the Western countries
Western countries have some heavy rare earth (HREE) resources, with Australia and the United States being the most prominent. Other potential sources include Canada, Brazil, and a large deposit in Norway. However, extraction and processing outside of China are challenging and China currently dominates the market.
Australia
Mount Weld: This is the site of the largest producing rare earth mine in the country, operated by Lynas Rare Earths.
Processing: Concentrate from Mount Weld is processed at a plant in Malaysia, making it a key part of the non-Chinese supply chain.
Investment: Australia is making significant investments in its rare earth sector to compete with China.
United States
Mountain Pass: The only integrated rare earth mining and processing facility in North America, located in California.
Resource Base: The US has reserves of both light and heavy rare earth elements and is working to strengthen its domestic supply chain.
Government Initiatives: The government is actively investing in domestic rare earth production and processing facilities.
Canada
Resource Potential: Canada is considered a potential processing hub and has resources that could be developed.
Norway
Fen Complex: This area is home to Europe's largest known deposit of rare earth elements and is being developed as a potential source for the EU.
Brazil
Vast Reserves: Brazil has the world's second-largest rare earth reserves but currently has low production levels and limited refining capacity.
Challenges for Western Countries
Processing: Separating and processing rare earths is a complex and costly process, and China has a significant advantage in this area.
Market Dominance: China currently dominates the global rare earth supply chain, and extracting its market share is difficult.
Environmental Concerns: Mining operations must balance resource extraction with environmental protection, which can be a significant hurdle.
别摸我2025-10-17 17:06:43回复悄悄话
MP may be in a bubble
来源: 未知就是风险 于 2025-10-16 阅读数 : 1137
1. Based on public available data and US DOD floor price $110 per kilogram, MP is way expensive now. If MP can substiute all import from china and all other countries, and DOD buy all its products, the total sale could be some where between $665,657,142.86 to $992,357,142.86. Using yesterday' market value, the P/s is somewhere between 15-22.
that is very high.
2. and calculation is based up two assumptions: a) US DOD buy all its products. but that is not the case, DOD will buy certain products only; a) MP will be only rare earth producer in US. This is also not true.
Therefore, its sales will be much lower, resulting a much higher P/s
3. I do not think it has enought captial. Now JPM/GS help them get 1 billion committment, and DOD provide 550 million. That is 1.55 billion. (aapl's 500 million only for recycle magnets). This is not enough. a) its has negative cash flow. that needs to be covered on yearly basis; b). cost over run is more likely.
Western countries have some heavy rare earth (HREE) resources, with Australia and the United States being the most prominent. Other potential sources include Canada, Brazil, and a large deposit in Norway. However, extraction and processing outside of China are challenging and China currently dominates the market.
Australia
Mount Weld: This is the site of the largest producing rare earth mine in the country, operated by Lynas Rare Earths.
Processing: Concentrate from Mount Weld is processed at a plant in Malaysia, making it a key part of the non-Chinese supply chain.
Investment: Australia is making significant investments in its rare earth sector to compete with China.
United States
Mountain Pass: The only integrated rare earth mining and processing facility in North America, located in California.
Resource Base: The US has reserves of both light and heavy rare earth elements and is working to strengthen its domestic supply chain.
Government Initiatives: The government is actively investing in domestic rare earth production and processing facilities.
Canada
Resource Potential: Canada is considered a potential processing hub and has resources that could be developed.
Norway
Fen Complex: This area is home to Europe's largest known deposit of rare earth elements and is being developed as a potential source for the EU.
Brazil
Vast Reserves: Brazil has the world's second-largest rare earth reserves but currently has low production levels and limited refining capacity.
Challenges for Western Countries
Processing: Separating and processing rare earths is a complex and costly process, and China has a significant advantage in this area.
Market Dominance: China currently dominates the global rare earth supply chain, and extracting its market share is difficult.
Environmental Concerns: Mining operations must balance resource extraction with environmental protection, which can be a significant hurdle.
来源: 未知就是风险 于 2025-10-16 阅读数 : 1137
1. Based on public available data and US DOD floor price $110 per kilogram, MP is way expensive now. If MP can substiute all import from china and all other countries, and DOD buy all its products, the total sale could be some where between $665,657,142.86 to $992,357,142.86. Using yesterday' market value, the P/s is somewhere between 15-22.
that is very high.
2. and calculation is based up two assumptions: a) US DOD buy all its products. but that is not the case, DOD will buy certain products only; a) MP will be only rare earth producer in US. This is also not true.
Therefore, its sales will be much lower, resulting a much higher P/s
3. I do not think it has enought captial. Now JPM/GS help them get 1 billion committment, and DOD provide 550 million. That is 1.55 billion. (aapl's 500 million only for recycle magnets). This is not enough. a) its has negative cash flow. that needs to be covered on yearly basis; b). cost over run is more likely.
in short, I sold my MP this morning.
? 你的3是明显错的，MP绝对不会缺钱！ -gumin2017 (4 reads) 10/16/2025
大批中小老板们一窝蜂开制造业公司。
来源: HBW 于 2025-10-15 阅读数 : 13
来源: 未知就是风险 于 2025-10-15 阅读数 : 1462
今天，终于有空， 分享一点新闻 -- what Bessent said today.
1. More investing in strategically important industries
2. set price floor for those strategically importnat industries.
Trump will set price floors across industries to combat China, Bessent says
今天买回 mineral 股。 不是投资建议。