侃侃今年的金球奖

今晚是第70届电影金球奖的颁奖仪式，作为影迷我看了提名的大部分的电影，简单谈谈我对今晚金球奖电影奖项的预测吧。

2012年是好莱坞的剧情片大年，虽然金球奖的奖项是把“剧情类”和“音乐戏剧类”分开计算，与奥斯卡相比会有更多的奖项，但今年的剧情类影片中，在电影《林肯》Lincoln， 《逃离德黑兰》Argo和《猎杀本-拉登》Zero Dark Thirty之间，谁能拿到最佳影片和最佳导演奖还会有一番争夺。

我觉得最佳电影奖会归《林肯》，最佳导演奖会在《逃离德黑兰》Argo和《猎杀本-拉登》Zero Dark Thirty之间争夺。

而剧情类电影的影帝非扮演林肯的Daniel Day-Lewis莫属，据说他花了一年多时间准备林肯这个角色，真是表演的出神入化，让人感悟为什么林肯会成为美国历史上最伟大的领袖人物之一。而影后会归属于《猎杀本-拉登》中的女主角Jessica Chastain，她扮演的这个没有家庭没有朋友的女工作狂，顶着巨大的压力下，把蛛丝马迹连起来，最后找到本-拉登的老巢，让人信服。

在今年的戏剧类影片中，《悲惨世界》Les Misérables和《乌云背后的幸福线》Silver Linings Playbook表现突出。

虽说头部片子争议很大，那些酷爱《悲惨世界》音乐剧的歌迷们对这部电影中的演唱片段不甚满意，但我觉得搬上银幕的电影有着音乐剧比不上的优势，场面巨大，气势宏伟，演员全身心的投入演出，把雨果的这部巨作更深刻全面地展示在更多的观众面前。我觉得这部影片能获得戏剧类影片的最佳影片奖，而Hugh Jackman扮演的冉阿让将获得最佳男主角奖，Anne Hathaway扮演的芳汀也会获得最佳女配角奖。

而另一部反映精神异常的人在现代社会中挣扎的《乌云背后的幸福线》也是今年值得一看的好影片，影片的英文原名中的silver linings相当于我们中文中“拨开乌云见明月”的意思。影片从男主角自精神病院出院回家后面临的一系列家庭危机，处处碰壁开始，直到碰到一个和他精神状态相似的女孩，互相理解，互相扶持着，再次回到正常的人生轨道上。影片让人思索在现代社会中，什么是正常，什么是不正常？该如何对待这些“不正常的人”。这是一部隐含深层哲理的好片。片中男女主角都演的非常好，特别是扮演女主角的Jennifer Lawrence从一出场就抓住了你的视线，她用个性化的语言、面部的表情和肢体动作，把复杂的女主角演得淋漓尽致。她出道时间不长，但在她担纲的几部片子中都表现突出，也一定会以自己在片中杰出的表演获得最佳女主角奖。

下面是我今晚的预测：

GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS - FILM

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

"Argo"

"Django Unchained"

"Life of Pi"

"Lincoln"

"Zero Dark Thirty"

Winner: "Lincoln"

BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL

"The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

"Les Misérables"

"Moonrise Kingdom"

"Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"

"Silver Linings Playbook"

Winner: "Les Misérables"

BEST DIRECTOR - MOTION PICTURE

Ben Affleck - "Argo"

Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"

Ang Lee - "Life of Pi"

Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"

Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"

Winner: Ben Affleck, "Argo" （1）

Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"（2）

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

Rachel Weisz - "The Deep Blue Sea"

Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"

Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"

Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"

Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

Winner: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA

Richard Gere - "Arbitrage"

Denzel Washington - "Flight"

Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"

Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"

John Hawkes - "The Sessions"

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL

Judi Dench - "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

Meryl Streep - "Hope Springs"

Maggie Smith - "Quartet"

Emily Blunt - "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"

Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL

Jack Black - "Bernie"

Bill Murray - "Hyde Park on Hudson"

Hugh Jackman - "Les Misérables"

Ewan McGregor - "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"

Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Winner: Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables"

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

Anne Hathaway - "Les Misérables"

Sally Field - "Lincoln"

Amy Adams - "The Master"

Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"

Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"

Winner: Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

Alan Arkin - "Argo"

Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"

Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained"

Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"

Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

"Amour"

"The Intouchables"

"Kon-Tiki"

"A Royal Affair"

"Rust and Bone"

Winner: "Amour"