正文
经济衰退：又深又长？
来源： 作者：飞人
[丁丁整理：纽约大学商学院的经济学家Nouriel Roubini认为全球经济将面临恐慌。而有迹象表明，最先崩溃的将是债券保险公司（MBIA, Ambac, FGIC等）。这些保险公司由于房价的下跌，已经亏损了$720亿的债权抵押债券（collateralized debt obligations）。
尽管有人认为联储的降息会为经济带来另一轮升势，债券保险公司的股票也会因此而反弹。但Roubini相信，降息也无济于事，这些公司亏损的风险相当大。Roubini就形式的发展进行了预测。
债券保险公司丧失3A的评级。
首先，债券保险公司会丧失3A的评级。到报道时间止，纽约州正试图注入更多的资本到债券保险公司。Roubini认为，资本注入不能挽救这些公司，而目前，尚未有其他有效计划来帮助这些公司。因此，这些公司会失去最高的评级。随后，与其有关的银行（Merrill, Citi等）的资产会缩水，其实，这些银行已经缩水了超过$1000亿的资产。次级房贷造成的财务损失可能有$4000亿，而整个金融系统的损失会超过一万亿。
危机的扩散
接着，危机将会从次级贷款逐步扩散到近优级房贷和优级房贷、商业房地产、车贷、信用卡、公司并购贷款、企业债券及衍生产品。如果杠杆银行、交易商和对冲基金在国内信贷损失$2000亿，他们将不得不拉回两万亿的借贷。那么金融损失将扩散到其他资本市场，特别是欧洲。届时，主权财富基金（Sovereign wealth funds）也无法救市。信贷的危机将继续扩大。股票、房产、日用消费品、新兴市场资本和美元将受挫。Roubini说：“在2008年，现金最重要。”
延长的衰退接踵而来
Roubini认为美国在去年12月开始进入经济衰退，这次衰退将持续至少一年。现在已经积存了大量未售出的商品（耐用消费品，汽车），而消费者正减少支出，劳动力市场又持续疲软，没有新增工作，也没有增加工资。住宅价格下跌了8％，可能在触低前下降20％到30％。
影子银行体系的消亡
绑定表外（off-balance-sheet）业务的银行就象结构化投资工具（SIV），也就是所谓的影子银行体系。但是影子系统没有办法获得中央银行的最后贷款人（lender of last resort ）政策的帮助。因此，当银行疲于救助他们的SIVs时, 这些持有SIV发行的资本票据的投资人将遭受损失。]
Look Out Below
Robert Lenzner 02.25.08
http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/0225/036a.html
If you get depressed easily, don't read this story. Here's one sage's prediction of a long, deep recession.
It may be time to christen a new Dr. Doom. The candidate: Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University's business school. He makes the old Dr. Doom, bond pessimist Henry Kaufman, look like Dr. Phil. No mincer of words, Roubini thinks a full-blown panic will scorch the global economy. He recently laid out his scenario for central bankers in Davos and had them chewing it for hours.
He thinks the immediate spark will be the collapse of bond insurers (MBIA, Ambac, FGIC and others). These insurers have guaranteed $72 billion worth of collateralized debt obligations, now crumbling in value as housing prices fall.
Cheerier sages see an economy lifting off in the second half, fueled by the Fed's rate cuts, and a rebound in the shares of bond insurers. Roubini says lower rates won't help. There are significant risks of insolvency. Here's his prediction of how it'll play out:
Bond Insurers Lose the Triple-A
At press time New York State was trying to arrange a capital infusion for the bond insurers. Roubini doesn't think it'll work, and there's no Plan B--yet. Lacking that, insurers will lose their gilt-edged rating. Then the banks (Merrill, Citi and others) that paid them for protection against default of their collateralized debt obligations will face more writedowns--well beyond the $100 billion that's been written down already. Financial losses in subprime mortgages could be $400 billion and in the whole financial system more than $1 trillion. A big bank might go under.
Contagion Spreads
Writedowns will begin percolating up from subprime mortgages to near-prime and prime mortgages, commercial real estate, auto loans, credit cards, corporate buyout loans, corporate bonds and derivatives. If leveraged banks, brokers and hedge funds should suffer $200 billion in domestic credit losses, they would have to pull back on $2 trillion in lending, according to a Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) analysis. Roubini says the rest of the world will "recouple" rather than decouple, as financial losses spread to other world capital markets, especially Europe. Sovereign wealth funds will not be large enough to play savior. Credit spreads will keep widening. Equities, housing, commodities, emerging market assets and the dollar will get hurt. "Cash is king in 2008," says Roubini.
A Protracted Recession Ensues
Roubini says the U.S. went into recession in December and will stay there for at least a year. We've got excess inventories of unsold goods (consumer durables, autos), a shopped-out consumer and a growing weakness in labor markets with no new jobs (net of losses) and no rise in real wages. Home prices, down 8% currently, could fall by 20% to 30% total before bottoming.
The Shadow Banking System Dies
Banks got hooked on off-balance-sheet entities like structured investment vehicles, which Roubini calls the "shadow banking system." But the shadow system has no access to the "lender of last resort" support of central banks. When the banks tire of bailing out their sivs, holders of siv paper will have losses.
来源： 作者：飞人
[丁丁整理：纽约大学商学院的经济学家Nouriel Roubini认为全球经济将面临恐慌。而有迹象表明，最先崩溃的将是债券保险公司（MBIA, Ambac, FGIC等）。这些保险公司由于房价的下跌，已经亏损了$720亿的债权抵押债券（collateralized debt obligations）。
尽管有人认为联储的降息会为经济带来另一轮升势，债券保险公司的股票也会因此而反弹。但Roubini相信，降息也无济于事，这些公司亏损的风险相当大。Roubini就形式的发展进行了预测。
债券保险公司丧失3A的评级。
首先，债券保险公司会丧失3A的评级。到报道时间止，纽约州正试图注入更多的资本到债券保险公司。Roubini认为，资本注入不能挽救这些公司，而目前，尚未有其他有效计划来帮助这些公司。因此，这些公司会失去最高的评级。随后，与其有关的银行（Merrill, Citi等）的资产会缩水，其实，这些银行已经缩水了超过$1000亿的资产。次级房贷造成的财务损失可能有$4000亿，而整个金融系统的损失会超过一万亿。
危机的扩散
接着，危机将会从次级贷款逐步扩散到近优级房贷和优级房贷、商业房地产、车贷、信用卡、公司并购贷款、企业债券及衍生产品。如果杠杆银行、交易商和对冲基金在国内信贷损失$2000亿，他们将不得不拉回两万亿的借贷。那么金融损失将扩散到其他资本市场，特别是欧洲。届时，主权财富基金（Sovereign wealth funds）也无法救市。信贷的危机将继续扩大。股票、房产、日用消费品、新兴市场资本和美元将受挫。Roubini说：“在2008年，现金最重要。”
延长的衰退接踵而来
Roubini认为美国在去年12月开始进入经济衰退，这次衰退将持续至少一年。现在已经积存了大量未售出的商品（耐用消费品，汽车），而消费者正减少支出，劳动力市场又持续疲软，没有新增工作，也没有增加工资。住宅价格下跌了8％，可能在触低前下降20％到30％。
影子银行体系的消亡
绑定表外（off-balance-sheet）业务的银行就象结构化投资工具（SIV），也就是所谓的影子银行体系。但是影子系统没有办法获得中央银行的最后贷款人（lender of last resort ）政策的帮助。因此，当银行疲于救助他们的SIVs时, 这些持有SIV发行的资本票据的投资人将遭受损失。]
Look Out Below
Robert Lenzner 02.25.08
http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/0225/036a.html
If you get depressed easily, don't read this story. Here's one sage's prediction of a long, deep recession.
It may be time to christen a new Dr. Doom. The candidate: Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University's business school. He makes the old Dr. Doom, bond pessimist Henry Kaufman, look like Dr. Phil. No mincer of words, Roubini thinks a full-blown panic will scorch the global economy. He recently laid out his scenario for central bankers in Davos and had them chewing it for hours.
He thinks the immediate spark will be the collapse of bond insurers (MBIA, Ambac, FGIC and others). These insurers have guaranteed $72 billion worth of collateralized debt obligations, now crumbling in value as housing prices fall.
Cheerier sages see an economy lifting off in the second half, fueled by the Fed's rate cuts, and a rebound in the shares of bond insurers. Roubini says lower rates won't help. There are significant risks of insolvency. Here's his prediction of how it'll play out:
Bond Insurers Lose the Triple-A
At press time New York State was trying to arrange a capital infusion for the bond insurers. Roubini doesn't think it'll work, and there's no Plan B--yet. Lacking that, insurers will lose their gilt-edged rating. Then the banks (Merrill, Citi and others) that paid them for protection against default of their collateralized debt obligations will face more writedowns--well beyond the $100 billion that's been written down already. Financial losses in subprime mortgages could be $400 billion and in the whole financial system more than $1 trillion. A big bank might go under.
Contagion Spreads
Writedowns will begin percolating up from subprime mortgages to near-prime and prime mortgages, commercial real estate, auto loans, credit cards, corporate buyout loans, corporate bonds and derivatives. If leveraged banks, brokers and hedge funds should suffer $200 billion in domestic credit losses, they would have to pull back on $2 trillion in lending, according to a Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) analysis. Roubini says the rest of the world will "recouple" rather than decouple, as financial losses spread to other world capital markets, especially Europe. Sovereign wealth funds will not be large enough to play savior. Credit spreads will keep widening. Equities, housing, commodities, emerging market assets and the dollar will get hurt. "Cash is king in 2008," says Roubini.
A Protracted Recession Ensues
Roubini says the U.S. went into recession in December and will stay there for at least a year. We've got excess inventories of unsold goods (consumer durables, autos), a shopped-out consumer and a growing weakness in labor markets with no new jobs (net of losses) and no rise in real wages. Home prices, down 8% currently, could fall by 20% to 30% total before bottoming.
The Shadow Banking System Dies
Banks got hooked on off-balance-sheet entities like structured investment vehicles, which Roubini calls the "shadow banking system." But the shadow system has no access to the "lender of last resort" support of central banks. When the banks tire of bailing out their sivs, holders of siv paper will have losses.
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