正文
上周日, 美国ABC电视台 This Week 节目主持人George Stephanopoulos (前克林顿总统的
顾问) 和来宾们，包括Mark Halperin (Time Magazine)，Matthew Dowd (former Republican strategist)， George Will (ABC News contributor)，和 Donna Brazile(former Democratic strategist)，一致预计奥巴马将在明天的大选中赢得338~378 选举人票 (Electoral Vote)。当选美国总统只须270票。而且预料民主党将在众、议两院增加席位。
看来这些颇负盛名的主持人与嘉宾们都对奥巴马入主白宫相当有信心。主持人
Stephanopoulos还又问了嘉宾们一句，有多大的可能性他们一致的预计会是错的，
每个人对自己的预言都非常有信心。
这是历史性的时刻。
Election Night Predictions
November 02, 2008 9:36 AM
录像连接
http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/11/predictions-ele.html
Electoral College (United States)
The Electoral College consists of 538 popularly elected representatives who
formally select the President and Vice President of the United States.[1] In
2008, it will make this selection on December 15. The Electoral College is an
example of an indirect election.
Rather than directly voting for the President and Vice President, United
Statescitizens cast votes for electors. Electors are technically free to vote
for anyone eligible to be President, but in practice pledge to vote for specific
candidates[2]and voters cast ballots for favored presidential and vice
presidential candidates by voting for correspondingly pledged electors.[3]
Moststates allow voters to choose between statewide slates of electors pledged to
vote for the presidential and vice presidential tickets of various parties; the
ticket that receives the most votes statewide 'wins' all of the votes
cast by electors from that state. U.S. presidential campaigns concentrate on
winning the popular vote in a combination of states that choose a majority of
the electors, rather than campaigning to win the most votes nationally.
Each state has a number of electors equal to the number of its Senators
andRepresentatives in the United States Congress. Additionally, Washington, D.C.
is given a number of electors equal to the number held by the "least populous" state.[4]
U.S. territories are not represented in the Electoral College.
Each elector casts one vote for President and one vote for Vice President. In
order to be elected, a candidate must have a majority (at least 270) of the
electoral votes cast for that office. Should no candidate for President win a
majority of the electoral votes, the choice is referred to the House of
Representatives.[5] Should no candidate for Vice President possess a majority of
the electoral votes, the choice is given to the Senate.[6]
The Constitution allows each state legislature to designate a method of
choosing electors. Forty-eight states and the District of Columbia have adopted
a winner-take-all popular vote rule where voters choose between statewide slates
of electors pledged to vote for a specific presidential and vice presidential
candidate. The candidate that wins the most votes in the state wins the support
of all of that state’s electors. The two other states, Maine and Nebraska, use
a tiered system where a single elector is chosen within each Congressional
district and two electors are chosen by statewide popular vote. U.S.
presidential elections are effectively an amalgamation of 51 separate and
simultaneous elections (50 states plus the District of Columbia), rather than a
single national election.
Candidates can fail to get the most votes in the nationwide popular vote in a
presidential election and still win that election. This occurred in 1876,
1888and 2000. Critics argue the Electoral College is inherently undemocratic and
gives certain swing states disproportionate clout in selecting the President and
Vice President. Adherents argue that the Electoral College is an important and
distinguishing feature of the federal system, and protects the rights of smaller
states. Numerous constitutional amendments have been introduced in Congress
seeking a replacement of the Electoral College with a direct popular vote;
however, no proposal has ever successfully passed both houses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Electoral_College
• 不容易,只要老麦拿下宾州,感觉就能翻盘,Obama可能大意失宾州 -For_Blacks- ♂ (0 bytes) (30 reads) 11/3/08
• 回复：不容易,只要老麦拿下宾州,感觉就能翻盘,Obama可能大意失宾州 -火箭发了- (77 bytes) (149 reads) 11/3/08
i know GOPs are hoping for a Bradley effect but that could just be some wishful thinking (unless there will be some dirty tricks of election irregularities).