2008年诺贝尔经济奖得主评Joe the Plumber-共和党新偶像 (图)

Paul Krugman。Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times


纽约时报专栏作家，今年诺贝尔经济奖获得者PAUL KRUGMAN的文章，The Real Plumbers
of Ohio，OP-ED COLUMNIST，By PAUL KRUGMAN，Published: October 20, 2008


40年前，尼克松总统发明了卓越的市场销售策略。利用美国国内的分歧-越南分歧，
文化变化方面的分歧，最重要的是种族分裂-他能够重塑共和党的品牌。富豪的党被
重新包装为“无声的大多数”的党，普通人-白人，不用说-不喜欢社会发生变化。

这是一个成功的模式。伟大的是，新包装并不需要改变产品的任何实际内容-事实
上，共和党能够继续赢得大选，尽管其实际政策变得更加亲富豪，比以往任何时候
更不利美国的工薪阶层。

参议员麦凯恩的策略，在这竞选的最后阶段，是基于这种信念，过去的公式仍然有
生命力。

因此，我们见到莎拉佩林表达她访问“亲美”的地区的喜悦(注，指佩林上周在北卡
时说那里是pro-America)-是的，我们住在新泽西州中部的人都是叛徒。与此同时，
我们见到麦凯恩把J. Wurzelbacher，就是那个Joe the Plumber，-曾在奥巴马的竞
选活动中质问民主党总统候选人将增加他的纳税-作为他攻击奥巴马的经济建议的
核心。

当事实证明，保守派的新偶像存在几个问题，如没有得到营业许可，将奥巴马与
Sammy Davis Jr.相比较时，保守派又扮演受害人的角色：看看有多少傲慢的精英仇
恨这个普通人？

但是实际上，对于俄亥俄州的水暖工，和美国的一般工薪阶层，实际情况如何呢？

首先，他们没有在挣大钱。人们可能还记得，在一个早期的民主党辩论中，美国广
播公司的查尔斯吉布森提议，一个中产阶级的收入是 $20，0000/年。把这个数字
告诉给那个俄亥俄州的水暖工：根据劳工统计局2007年5月职业收入报告，俄亥俄
州的“plumbers-管道工， pipefitters和steamfitters”每年的平均收入是$47,930。

第二，他们的实际收入实际上停滞或在下降，即使在假定良好的年头里。布什政府
向我们保证，经济在2007年蓬勃发展-但在2007年的报告中，俄亥俄州的管道工人
平均收入只高于2000年报告的15.5%，不足以跟上中西部地区17.7%的消费物价增长。
俄亥俄州水暖工的状况反映了全国的情况：2007年中等家庭的收入，调整通货膨胀
后，低于2000年。

第三，俄亥俄州的管道工们已经越来越难获得健康保险，尤其是许多在小公司工作
的工匠们。据恺撒家庭基金会资料，在2007年只有45%的少于10名雇员的公司提供
健康保险，低于2000年的57%。

记住，所有这些数据仅涉及2007年-这是最近几年的好光景。现在，“布什繁荣"，
象以往一样，已经结束了，我们可以看到它取得了令人沮丧的成绩：有史以来第
一次，经济增长没有提高大多数美国人在先前的经济高峰期时的收入。

从那时起，当然，事情已经迅速下滑，数以百万计的美国人已经失去他们的工作和
自己的家园。而且，所有指标显示事情会在几个月和几年后变得更糟。

所有这一切究竟对总统候选人意味着什么？谁是真正在为俄亥俄州的水暖工说话？

麦凯恩先生先生称，奥巴马的政策将导致经济灾难。但是布什总统的政策已经导致
了灾难-无论他将怎么说，麦凯恩提出在所有的基本方面继续布什总统的政策，他
分享布什的反政府，反调控的哲学。

那种断言，基于乔-管道工的投诉，在奥巴马领导下的美国工薪阶层将面临较高的税
收，的真相是什么？实际上，奥巴马提议仅对2%收入最高的人提高所得税-也包括,
年收入,在扣除后，$182,400 的户主。

也许有水暖工可以赚这样多的钱，或他们可能因为奥巴马提议的适度增加对红利和
资本收益的税收而而减少收入-美国是一个大的国家，也许会有一个高收入并拥有
大量股票的水暖工存在。但是，典型的管道工收入较低，而不是更高，根据奥巴马
的税收政策，管道工们将有一个更好的机会获得医疗保险。

我不想暗示，每个人都将在奥巴马的税收计划中得到更好的待遇。乔-水暖工几乎可
以肯定过得更好，但象Richie这样的对冲基金经理将会受到沉重打击。

说的就是这一点。无论今天的G.O.P.是什么，它不是美国工薪阶层的政党。

www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinion/20krugman.html

Paul Krugman
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Paul Robin Krugman (February 28, 1953) is an Americaneconomist, columnist,
author and intellectual.[1] He is a professor of economics and internationalaffairs 
at Princeton University, and a columnist for The New York Times. In2008, Krugman 
won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences "for hisanalysis of trade patterns 
and location of economic activity".[2][3]Krugman is well-known in academia for his 
work in international economics,including trade theory, economic geography, and 
international finance.



Biography
Krugman was born into a Jewish family and grew up on Long Island in New York.He is 
married to Robin Wells, a fellow professor at Princeton, his second wife.They have 
no children.[4][5]Krugman says that his interest in economics began with Isaac 
Asimov'sFoundation novels, in which the social scientists of the future use
"psychohistory" to attempt to save civilization. As psychohistory doesnot exist at 
present, Krugman turned to economics, which he considered the nextbest thing.[6]

Economic career
Krugman earned his B.S. in economics from Yale University in 1974 and his Ph.D.from 
MIT in 1977. From 1982 to 1983, he spent a year working at the Reagan WhiteHouse as 
a staff member of the Council of Economic Advisers. He taught at YaleUniversity, MIT, 
UC Berkeley, the London School of Economics, and StanfordUniversity before joining 
the faculty of Princeton University in 2000. He is amember of the Group of Thirty 
international economic body and the Council onForeign Relations.When Bill Clinton 
came into office in 1993, he considered Krugman for a leadingpost; Krugman was flown 
out for a meeting in Arkansas. Krugman'soutspokenness was reported to be "the main 
reason the Clintonadministration didn't offer him a job."[7] Krugman says he would 
nothave been interested in such a job; he told Newsweek, "I'mtemperamentally unsuited 
for that kind of role. You have to be very good atpeople skills, biting your tongue 
when people say silly things."[7] In his New York Times blog, Krugman repeated that 
statement, saying that he was"temperamentally unsuited to politics".[8]

Nobel Prize
Krugman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, the soleawardee 
for 2008. This award, created in 1968 by the Swedish central bank inAlfred Nobel’s 
memory, includes a prize of about $1.4 million and was awardedto Krugman for his work 
associated with New Trade Theory.[9][10] In the words ofthe prize committee, "By 
having integrated economies of scale into explicitgeneral equilibrium models, Paul 
Krugman has deepened our understanding of thedeterminants of trade and the location 
of economic activity."[11]
Academic contributions
Paul Krugman has done extensive work 
in international economics, including workon international trade, economic geography, 
andinternational finance. Accordingto the Research Papers in Economics project, he is 
among the 50 most influentialeconomists in the world today.[12] Krugman's International 
Economics: Theoryand Policy, co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld is a standard 
introductorytextbook on international economics. He also writes on economic topics 
for thegeneral public, sometimes on international economic topics but also on income
distribution and public policy. He is generally considered a neo-Keynesianeconomist,[13] 
with his views outlined in his books such as Peddling Prosperity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinin/20krugman.html?em