正文
今天早上看到这篇文章, 有两点启发:
1, 在全球产业大整合的今天, 中国如何才能尽快在产业链中占据有利位置, 而不是满足于低附加值的份额.
2, 在西方国家大肆叫嚣对中国的巨额贸易逆差的情况下, 如何改进我们的宣传工作, 把中国目前在产业链中收益很小却付出很大的现实, 让世人有所了解.
全文载于The Globe and Mail. 为方便大家阅读, 本人拙译如下.
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当一台$300(美元)的iPod 从中国进口到美国, 美国海关把它的出厂价值$150记做从中国的进口. 这个数字成为了中国对美国的巨额贸易顺差的一部分.
但是那台iPod真的是中国制造吗? 一群对此持怀疑态度的加利福尼亚研究人员深入研究了iPod来找出答案. 他们发现, 虽然iPod是在中国组装, 但是组装本身仅仅价值几个美金. 其它的部分 - 一块来自日本的显示屏, 两个来自美国的关键芯片 - 价值则要高的多. 当然苹果公司自己 - 作为发明者, 设计者, 和市场策划者 - 创造了iPod的大部分价值并且收获了大部分的利润.
加拿大会议委员会(Conference Board of Canada)的一份新的关于加拿大和亚洲之间"遗失"的贸易的报告, 讲述了iPod的故事, 以帮助证明它所提出的观点: 官方贸易统计数据扭曲了我们和亚洲贸易关系的真实情况. 报告作者Danielle Goldfarb 和Louis Thériault指出, 当报纸和政客们围绕着我们和中国之间的贸易额(2006年达到340亿加元)大做文章的时候, 他们没有注意到, 象iPod一样, Wal-Mart和一元店里大量的商品并不是完全在中国制造的, 而仅仅是在中国组装的而已.
快速的贸易整合意味着货物和配件在生产的不同阶段运进, 运出亚洲. "因此, 加拿大和任何一个亚洲国家之间的官方进口统计数据, 只是简单的反映了货物的最终进口来源国, 而不是生产了此货物大部分价值的国家."
当然, 同样情况也发生在由加拿大出口的货物里. 我们出口货物价值的三分之二是在我们国内生产的. 而其余部分则来自进口: 例如, 进口的皮革和鞋带用来制造加拿大生产的冰鞋.
关键是, 贸易是一个比官方统计方法所能展示的要复杂的多的东西. 现有的统计方法是在一个政府关注关税和配额的时代设计出来的. 例如, 它完全遗漏了加拿大海外分公司的销售额. 一个加拿大保险公司在上海卖出的保险单并没有被计算进来. 这是很大的一个疏忽, 因为越来越多的全球贸易是通过海外分公司发生的 - 印度的IBM, 中国的General Moters, 越南的Intel. 这些分公司并没有减少或取代国家之间的贸易, 它们反而增强了国家间的贸易. 经济合作和发展组织估计, 一个国家对海外投资的每一美元, 能够产出两美元的额外出口额.
清楚的是, 我们必须重新考虑我们对全球贸易的想法. 象报告中所说: "当前体系中贸易统计数据, 描述了一次性的, 双边的交易, 而并没有与其它的交易联系起来. 事实上, 贸易发生在多个伙伴之间, 并且发生在一个完整过程的不同阶段. 更重要的是, 当前贸易数据主要是根据货物贸易分类的, 而不是根据更重要的 - 和更有潜力的角色 - 服务贸易. 并且, 就象iPod的例子所揭示的, 贸易统计数据并没有捕捉到货物价值的真正的产地."
报告发现, 如果把这些"遗失的贸易"考虑进来, 加拿大与亚洲的贸易额大大超过政府统计数据(但是与中国的贸易额会有所减少). 这是个好消息. 坏消息是, 贸易成长并没有我们想象中的那么快. 加拿大与亚洲贸易的表现比官方统计所显示的还要落后, 特别是在向亚洲出售服务(而不是货物)方面.
更糟糕的是, 加拿大没有很好的利用全球供应链, 这种复杂的链接关系可以把生产过程转移到世界不同的地区以取得最大效率. 象报告指出的: "加拿大并没有显示出与亚洲供应链紧密的联系: 我们进口的主要是成品, 而出口的主要是原材料."
那么该做些什么呢? Goldfarb女士和Thériault先生说, 我们最好"动摇"(或者类似的效果)一下我们自己.
决策者和记者们必须停止把贸易说成一个双边的, 国家对国家的, 他们赢我们输的过程, 而应该开始理解现代全球经济的复杂性 - 和巨大的潜力. 企业们必须找到利用亚洲供应链发展自己的途径, 或者在亚洲设立分支机构, 或者从亚洲进口配件. 而政府则应该使加拿大公司走向全球化变的更加容易. 消除所有剩余的关税和非关税壁垒是一个开始, 他们说. 简化外国投资的限制也会有所帮助.
无论我们采取什么行动, 让我们记住iPod所包含的东西, 和他们所讲的复杂的故事.
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关于iPod的数字
30GB iPod中最贵的配件, 2005, 以美元计, 原产地
$73.39 - 硬盘, 日本
$20.39 - 显示模块, 日本
$8.36 - 图象/多媒体处理器, 美国
$4.94 - 便携式播放器 CPU, 美国
$3.70 - 测试, 装配, 中国, 台湾
$2.89 - 电池, 未知
$2.88 - 显示驱动器, 日本
$2.30 - 移动式SDRAM存储器, 南韩
$2.30 - 后封盖, 未知
$1.90 - 主板, 未知
来源: Portelligent Inc.
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Made in China? Take a closer look
MARCUS GEE
00:00 EST Wednesday, February 06, 2008
When a $300 (U.S.) iPod is imported from China to the United States, U.S. Customs records its estimated factory value of $150 as an import from China. That figure contributes to China's massive trade surplus with the United States.
But is that iPod really "Made in China"? A group of skeptical California researchers looked at the guts of an iPod to find out. They discovered that, though the device was assembled in China, that accounted for only a few dollars of its value. Other parts - a display from Japan, two critical microchips from the U.S. - were far more valuable. And of course Apple itself - the creator, designer, marketer - created much of the iPod's value and reaped much of the profit.
A new Conference Board of Canada report on Canada's "missing" trade with Asia tells the iPod story to help prove its case that official trade statistics distort the true picture of our Asian trade relationship. Authors Danielle Goldfarb and Louis Thériault note that when newspapers and politicians make a big deal over our trade with China ($34-billion Canadian in 2006), they fail to note that, like the iPod, much of the stuff found in Wal-Marts and dollar stores is not truly made in China, merely assembled there.
Rapid trade integration means that goods and parts are shipped to and fro across Asia at various stages of production. "Therefore, official import figures between Canada and a particular Asian country may simply reflect the last place goods were shipped from, rather than where most of the value was created."
Of course the same thing could be said about many goods exported from Canada to other places. About two-thirds of what we export is made up of actual domestic content. The rest comes from imported inputs: the imported leather and laces for a Canadian-made hockey skate, for example.
The point is that trade is a much more complex thing than official measures - designed in an age when governments were fixated on levying tariffs and imposing quotas - can possibly capture. For example, they entirely miss the sales of Canadian affiliates abroad. A Canadian insurer selling policies in Shanghai isn't counted. That's quite an oversight, because more and more global trade takes place through foreign affiliates - IBM in India, General Motors in China or Intel in Vietnam. Those affiliates don't replace trade between nations, by the way, they enhance it. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that each dollar of direct investment a country sends abroad generates two dollars in additional exports.
Clearly, we have to rethink the way we imagine global trade. As the report puts it: "Trade statistics in the current system describe one-time, bilateral transactions that are not linked to other transactions. In reality, trade takes place between multiple partners, and at different stages of an overall process. Moreover, the way trade data are classified focuses almost entirely on goods trade, despite the greater role - and the greater potential role - of services. And, as the iPod example illustrates, trade statistics fail to capture where value is actually created."
The report finds that if this "missing trade" is factored in, Canada does much more trade with Asia as a whole (but less with China) than government data show. That's the good news. The bad news is that trade is not growing nearly as quickly as we imagined. Canada underperforms in Asian trade even more than the official stats suggest, especially when it comes to selling services (as opposed to goods) to Asians.
Worse, Canada is not taking good advantage of global supply chains, the complex linkages that see the production process farmed out to various parts of the world to maximize efficiency. As the report puts it: "Canada does not appear to be tightly linked into Asian supply chains: We import predominantly final goods and export mostly raw materials."
What is to be done? Ms. Goldfarb and Mr. Thériault say we had all better give ourselves a shake (or words to that effect).
Policy makers and journalists have to stop talking about trade as a two-way, country-to-country, they-win-we-lose process and start to understand the complexity - and wondrous potential - of the modern global economy. Businesses have to figure out how to prosper from Asian supply chains, either by setting up an affiliate in Asia or importing inputs from Asia. And governments have to make it easier for Canadian companies to go global. Eliminating all remaining tariffs and non-tariff barriers would be a start, they say. So would be easing limits on foreign investment.
Whatever steps we take, let's keep in mind the innards of that iPod and the complicated story they tell.
***
iPod by the numbers
The most expensive inputs in the 30GB iPod, 2005, in U.S. dollars, and country of origin:
$73.39 - Hard drive, Japan
$20.39 - Display module, Japan
$8.36 - Video/Multimedia processor, U.S.
$4.94 - Portal player CPU, U.S.
$3.70 - Test, assembly, China, Taiwan
$2.89 - Battery pack, unknown
$2.88 - Display driver, Japan
$2.37 - Mobile SDRAM memory, South Korea
$2.30 - Back enclosure, unknown
$1.90 - Mainboard PCB, unknown
Source: Portelligent Inc.
© The Globe and Mail
现在西方媒体的宣传, 某国对中国贸易逆差多少多少, 让该国老百姓很容易被误导, 并认为该国的钱都被中国赚走了. 而事实却不是这样.
关键是, 那样的数据是有局限性的, 不能直接用来说明问题.
你说的道理没错.
问题是, 这种方法统计出的数据是有局限性的: 只简单统计了双边直接贸易, 没有统计多边间接贸易.
这样的数据也许在某些方面是有用的, 但是不应该被用来误导公众, 尤其不应当被用来当作政策制定的依据.
现在很多西方国家的媒体和政客, 出于种种目的, 直接用这样的数据来做文章, 我们应该认清这一点, 并改进自己的宣传工作, 把真实情况告诉公众.
我不觉得美国海关的统计有什么问题，最简单的一个例子：如果中国从日本进口$100.00的家电，再以同样的价格卖到美国，即使中国一分钱都不赚，美国海关还是会把这$100.00的贸易逆差记在中国的帐上，事实上世界上所有国家的进出口贸易都是这么统计的。
美国海关没有义务帮中国去掉其中来自其它各国的原材料的价格，因为那是其它国家对中国的贸易顺差，并不能抵消美国对中国的贸易逆差，那部分原材料只是中国通过用进口的途径来养肥其它国家，对美国而言，那部分原材料的费用最后还是由美国来支付，因为美国作为一个整体的确在支付这所有的$150.00给中国而不是给其它原材料的生产国。中国不能把这原材料的进口既算成是对日本韩国的贸易逆差，又算成对美国的贸易逆差。
对. 在这个iPod的例子当中, 中国方面的顺差统计应该只包括了那几个美元的组装费. 但是美国对中国逆差统计却包括了大部分的出厂价值. 这是不公平的. 因为, iPod中很多配件的生产地并不是中国.
这就是为什么中国对美贸易顺差与美国对中贸易逆差总是对不上. 但是, 没有人向美国人民解释这一点, 因此中国政府在这方面的宣传工作需要加强.
同意. 另外, 管理也非常重要. 如何把一项科技成果转化为有利可图的产业, 如何恰当的配置利用资源, 使效益最大化, 等等, 都是值得中国企业和政府研究和学习的方面.
从冰鞋开始 :-)
This is true for most of the high end products. But the US people don't get that, they are always told by the media and government that US has a huge trade deficit with China. I think the Chinese government has to bring forward the msg to the US public that most of the deficits are actually not originated from China but other countries.
谢谢你的意见, 实际上我已经把英文原文和来源附于译文之后. 也许本文枯燥无味, 所以很少有人能把全文读完 :-)
Is this ture??
坦白的讲，科技不过是个工具罢了，我倒觉得是资本投资才是第一经济要素，没有投资，一切先进技术都是空谈，看看光纤和通讯的3g就知道了
$73.39 - 硬盘, 日本
$20.39 - 显示模块, 日本
$8.36 - 图象/多媒体处理器, 美国
$4.94 - 便携式播放器 CPU, 美国
$3.70 - 测试, 装配, 中国, 台湾
$2.89 - 电池, 未知
$2.88 - 显示驱动器, 日本
$2.30 - 移动式SDRAM存储器, 南韩
$2.30 - 后封盖, 未知
$1.90 - 主板, 未知
请注意，核心的价值全部控制在美国和日本手里，美国的cpu和设计与市场开发，日本的显示，硬盘和电池。邓公当年早就说过：科技是第一生产力。
必须抓住核心的东西，才能控制全球自由化贸易链的上级。
the argement above does not relate to the fundermental. if the author wants some advise, email to wantway@hotmail.com, i do charge, 1000$/hour, prepaid rate and chinese rate,