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Oct 30, 3:22 PM (ET)
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
WASHINGTON (AP) - Conservative Democrats who've been a thorn in the side of liberal party leaders could grow into a major obstacle to Barack Obama's agenda if he is elected president.
Majority Democrats are positioned for big gains in next week's congressional election. But many of the new faces would join a growing chorus of "Blue Dogs" who often part from the party base on big issues like taxes and increasing federal spending.
That could set up a roadblock for Obama, who has promised to broaden health insurance coverage, start a new round of public works projects and improve early childhood education, among other things - all initiatives that would require substantial government spending at a time of soaring deficits.
The 49 House Blue Dogs - about one in every four House Democrats - could grow by as many as 10 in Tuesday's election with wins in mainly Southern, conservative-leaning districts. Overall, Democrats are expected to pick up 20 or more House seats.
New Blue Dog faces in the House could include Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright in Alabama, county prosecutor Frank M. Kratovil Jr. on Maryland's conservative Eastern Shore, and Elwyn Tinklenberg north of Minneapolis-St. Paul. All have shots at capturing seats currently held by Republicans.
But the Blue Dogs also are making a bid to expand to the Senate. This week they endorsed the Senate bid of former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner - who was already heavily favored to win his race against former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore - in what they hope will be a big step toward strengthening their ability to stop initiatives that aren't paired with spending cuts or tax increases.
The move reflects exasperation with their own party's failure to rein in deficit spending, especially in the Senate where attempts to do so have been met with Republican filibusters.
"It's been a very productive and frustrating two years in the Democratic majority for the Blue Dogs," said Rep. Mike Ross of Arkansas, the head of the coalition. "Out of frustration, we've decided that we need to also get involved in Senate races."
For now, the group's endorsement means Warner gets their seal of approval and a $5,000 donation.
The term Blue Dog has its roots in the 1920s, when the moniker "yellow dog Democrat" was used to described party loyalists in the South who, it was said, would vote for a yellow dog if it ran on the Democratic ticket. Right-of-center Democrats who said they were being "choked blue" by their party's liberal flank adopted the current name after Republicans swept control of the House in 1994.
The Blue Dogs' foray across the Capitol could add to their influence, particularly if Democrats capture the six or more Senate seats that many independent analysts and strategists believe are within their reach.
For example, Warner and North Carolina's Kay Hagan, the state senator trying to topple GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, would join other centrist Democrats - including Sens. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Max Baucus of Montana - in the Senate.
It's unclear how big of a challenge such a coalition would pose to Obama's proposals. Despite promises to control the deficit, Senate Democrats including Sen. Kent Conrad, the Budget Committee chairman and a top Democratic proponent of the "pay-as-you-go" rules that are gospel for Blue Dogs, have often found ways around the rules for party priorities.
Warner has made no commitments to abide by spending rules, but the former Virginia governor has spoken to Obama repeatedly about his devotion to limiting spending.
Warner has told Obama "that one of the lessons he took away from this four-year governorship in Virginia was the need to show an ability to enact some fiscal discipline, to cut some spending," said Kevin Hall, Warner's communications director.
Obama appears to recognize the challenge centrists like Warner and the House Blue Dogs could pose to his agenda should he win the White House. He's been reaching out to leaders of the coalition to assure them that he shares their concern about soaring deficits and their commitment to tackling them amid the economic crisis.
Obama made a round of calls to senior Blue Dogs before the House vote to approve the $700 billion financial industry bailout, and his pledges to work with them if elected played a key role in getting them to back the package.
Obama "recognizes the voting power and the clout of the Blue Dog Coalition, and I fully expect us to be involved in the transition as well as meetings in the White House as we figure out together how to jump-start this economy," Ross said.
Democratic leaders are well aware that even with larger majorities in the House and Senate, infighting among their many factions could upend their ambitious plans.
That's what happened after Bill Clinton won the White House, and the resulting intramural spats derailed enough Democratic priorities to help usher in the so-called Republican revolution that cost the party control of Congress in 1994.
If Obama wins, "Democrats would be under intense pressure to get their act together, and keep it together," said Bill Galston, a Clinton administration domestic policy adviser. "The promise as well as the peril of unified government is clear accountability and responsibility."
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