Where are we in the cycle for Stock & Housing
(2008-03-07 12:01:05)
下一个
Boom-bust
How can things go wrong, look at past 5 yrs-denial-silent-so bad, I was wrong- despair-panic-capitulation-bottom
Bust-boom
Bare market is here to stay-denial-silent-I was wrong-better jump in now-bull is back-leverage up-things will be great, goldy lock is here to stay
Each time, people\'s reasons are different, but the end result are the same.
In terms of housing, maybe we are 75% way to the bottom (of course market is local), but as Bayfamily said, the housing market is very STICKY, could take years to bottom out, and come back.
As to stock market, maybe we are 50% complete on the Boom-bust, people are silent but still hopeful, and my 2 cents is S&P 1100-1200 is an intermediate low.