大盘中期走向 (9/4/08)

今天的暴跌，已经宣布了从 7/15/08 开始的 counter-trend rally 已经结束。
大盘又开始了下一波的下跌。 这波下跌，S&P 500 将会再创新低。

S&P 在8/11/08 的高点 1313 和 最近的高点 8/28/08 的 1300.68 形成了 double top 的形态。虽然最理想的情况是再碰一下 1320 把窗口填了，但最终还是市场说了算。市场情绪指数也是 90% 到位了，应该有足够的能量发动下一次攻击。
在 8/28/08 的分析中说过，这次攻击大约在两周之内开始，今天得以证实。

对中期走向和理由，可以看 8/28/08 的分析。 今天的市场反应实际上证实了大盘的中期走向。

link:
盘后分析及中期展望 (8/28/08)

明天如果开高，则是逃命的机会。不要再抄底.

Take care.

[waveplayer]

回复alvaning的评论:wait for a good entery point. You actually can hold SKF for sometime when you have good entry level. and Trade covered call, to lower your cost constantly. QQQQ was very oversold. So wait for bounce to upper resistance. Some hedge funds has been forced to liquidated commodity poisition which cause a massive sell off in commodity stocks. But it may close to the end. The dollar has marvelous run in past month, but it is due for a pull back.

[waveplayer]

回复mojoe的评论:
It is really difficult for me to recommend any book if I don't know what is you level. But Gann's "40 years in wall street." is good for higher level trader to read. "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (original version) " is also good to improve chart reading and analysis.

[waveplayer]

回复windlight的评论:还没有太大的变化。美国的钱还在美国。不过没有进股市，而是债市，or sideline. 对股市信心不足。国际的钱流向变化不大。

[alvaning]

老大，问个问题，现在明显是金融地产航空掩护半导体等板块出货，但是最近几次大跌都是由金融坏消息引起，如果LEH/WM出一个坏消息，马上就会暴跌，那么这种情况下你是选择放空QQQQ还是XLF？ 先谢谢了。

[mojoe]

You have a great perception of the market. Thank you for sharing! You probably have a great deal of experience and knowledge about the market! I'd love to learn more. Do you have recommended books? I am an intermediate trader. Thank you for your anticipated response!!

[windlight]

waveplayer老大，能不能说说，从中长期看，国际上的钱在往哪儿流呢？
谢谢！