苍海泛舟
方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
正文
Today's huge volume and VIX spike over 33.7 could be a short term bottom. GS ER and possible AIG bankruptcy increased the selling pressure. S&P has gap down at open and quickly reached 1169 before a strong bouce. 1170 is Fibo 50% retracement point of this bull market which start from 2/2003.
The real driven force come after Fed meeting annoucement. A few minute after Fed annoucement, Fed representitive came again and state that FED will reconsider the stand to help AIG in it's financial crisis. This really pushed Market up to the roof. After market, we heard that FED will provide 85B loan to AIG and take 80% AIG interest. This eleminate a big burden to the market. S&P future up another 10 points after this news and this is favorable action to the market. So AIG saved! Without help from Gov. AIG has to announce bankruptcy tomorrow, that will be another devastating day. It will has huge impact to the stability of US Financial Systems. So Fed has to take aggresive action.
Because of this "Sea Change", today we may see the short term bottom. The target for next up wave is around 1280 in next two weeks. But it will not be easy.
JMHO
Take care
The real driven force come after Fed meeting annoucement. A few minute after Fed annoucement, Fed representitive came again and state that FED will reconsider the stand to help AIG in it's financial crisis. This really pushed Market up to the roof. After market, we heard that FED will provide 85B loan to AIG and take 80% AIG interest. This eleminate a big burden to the market. S&P future up another 10 points after this news and this is favorable action to the market. So AIG saved! Without help from Gov. AIG has to announce bankruptcy tomorrow, that will be another devastating day. It will has huge impact to the stability of US Financial Systems. So Fed has to take aggresive action.
Because of this "Sea Change", today we may see the short term bottom. The target for next up wave is around 1280 in next two weeks. But it will not be easy.
JMHO
Take care
Thank you for your articles, i learned a lot from them.
I agree with you that we are in wave 3-3. But I have several doubts.
1) what do you think is the start of 3-3, from the Aug/12 the highest day or from Aug/28, the latest highest day?
2) Can we say today is the end of 3-3-1?
3) You speculate the target of this rebounce is 1280, is that because the resistence in August and the second wave of a impulse wave (3-3) can not fully retrace the first wave.
Thank you very much.