对近期大势的看法

谢谢七月晴天把我和一些股友的通讯贴出来了。本想在《于无声处听惊雷---透视美国股市》中一起发表，但因为没时间写完，就给一些股友写了些结论。现在看看，还有些意义。作为纪录，公布于此，以谢股友的支持。

写于8/26/2007：
 

Give you a quick summary before you see my full article:

1. US is facing a serious financial crisis in decades which just begin to unfold. This could led a recession.

2. Fed Ben Bernake and treasury secretary Paulson are working hard to avoid severe market turmoil from happening at any cost. The Dow 800 points rally from 8/16 lows we just experienced are the result of FED and PPT team massive intervention. It did not came from natural market movement.

3. The intervention itself can not change market trend, but it can delay inevitable trend and buy some time before it happen.

4. FED fund rate cut is "have to do" FED has no choice in next meeting.

5. Short term market will calm and go up because of FED guard. Enjoy this prime time in next week which will soon disappear.

6. Dow could to up to 13700 with FED rate cut, but will not see the new highs for long time. We could see new lows in Oct, Nov. time frame.

7. Short term strategy: Buy low and sell high with short holding time. And prepare to short market when "FED rally" fade out.

8. Long term investment: Avoid Financial group, avoid cooperation high yeild bond. Raise cash level, buy some base metals ETFs and energy ETFs and GLD ETFs at any dip. Buy some government bond. Wait until this crisis unfold completely. Buy insurance (puts) to protect significant down side risks in next few months.

Gold may break 700 mark and reach as high as 800 next year.

[DDstudy]

Waveplayer master,

Every enjoy your posts about MKT on DQ. Sorry you have no time post there anymore. What is your current MKT view after 9.18 Fed cut and recent rally? Thanks!