苍海泛舟
方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
正文
今天的市场受到低于预期的生产物价指数 PPI, 和高于估计的LEH 的盈利的鼓舞，在开高小幅回调后一路走高。 但仔细看 PPI 数据并不乐观。多数价格下降是由于能源（gas and oil, ) 汽车销售价格下降导致的。Core rate 比预期的还高。 （0.2 vs 0.1) 最近的 oil price 达到新高，会对下月PPI 产生压力。明天的CPI 会更反映与消费者相关的情况。 考虑到美元的贬值，FED 下调利率的空间是有限的。
LEH 的盈利虽然比估计得好，但未来的预期并不乐观。加上Creadit freeze up 还没解决，大量A&M deal 的筹款问题还是疑问。这些会拖累今后的盈利。Fixed income 下降 47%， 对盈收产生 -700m 负增长。
FED 0。25 cut 已经融入市场价格，0。50 cut 是不可能的事。 But there are growing number of people expect FED has 0.50 cut in this meeting. Before meeting, last two weeks, market already up a quite bit and fully priced in 0.25 cut, the future market even priced in 0.50 cut. So before FED meeting, it seem very high expectation build into market which is easy to get disappointed if FED only cut 0.25 and has some comments on inflation side.
Take a look Option crowd, which represents "smart money" movement, QQQQ, SPY all have large oversize puts order this morning while market advance. That means market maker now is bearish to the market and purchase put to protect downside risk.
So this market is set up to fall after FED annoucement. Be aware the risks and protect your position.
JM2C
LEH 的盈利虽然比估计得好，但未来的预期并不乐观。加上Creadit freeze up 还没解决，大量A&M deal 的筹款问题还是疑问。这些会拖累今后的盈利。Fixed income 下降 47%， 对盈收产生 -700m 负增长。
FED 0。25 cut 已经融入市场价格，0。50 cut 是不可能的事。 But there are growing number of people expect FED has 0.50 cut in this meeting. Before meeting, last two weeks, market already up a quite bit and fully priced in 0.25 cut, the future market even priced in 0.50 cut. So before FED meeting, it seem very high expectation build into market which is easy to get disappointed if FED only cut 0.25 and has some comments on inflation side.
Take a look Option crowd, which represents "smart money" movement, QQQQ, SPY all have large oversize puts order this morning while market advance. That means market maker now is bearish to the market and purchase put to protect downside risk.
So this market is set up to fall after FED annoucement. Be aware the risks and protect your position.
JM2C
haha, you are kidding!