苍海泛舟
方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
正文
Fear and Greedy are two major driving force in investor's mind. It is not good or bad, it is just human nature.
There are two kinds of fears:
Fear of lose and
Fear of missing out.
What we saw last week is a typical "Fear of Lose" which donimate people's mind. Last Friday and this Monday just before market start a big rally, the "FEAR" reaches climax. A panic sell everywhere. People just want to get out regardless the heavy loss on their investment. "FEARS" controled people and drive the people to do some crazy thing. This reversed "Irrational exuberance" punch down the stock price cause Dow having the largest daily loss in three years. VIX had also reached 4 and half years high as 26.52 before it free fall start from this week. Someone lost heaviely in the "The Darkest Morning" just before market great run.
The second fear ,which is "Fear of missing out", controls people when market start a great rally. We saw the similar dramatic result: Dow has experienced the biggest one day gain in three year. +285! It's undo everything for what we saw on last Friday. The emotion quickly changed from extremely "Fear of lose" to "Fear of missing out". Guess what, the VIX dramatically fall from the top 26.52 to the today's low as 19.33. Do we have good news to drive this rally? No. We actually have some bad news instead. The productivity was not as high as expected and labor cost increased at same time. Fed did not cut rate as someone hoped. Does finanicial turmoil is over and we see the clear picture? Still the same. The uncertainty of financial world remaind same. What is the different? It must be some changes to cause this exaggerated result. Yes, there is one. The only changes are people's mind, the emotion, that made the difference.
What we learnd from it is:
Don't let emotion control over you. Everyone has fear, the differences between amaeur and seasoned trader is the capability to manage "fears" and risks.
If there is any tips we can give that will be:
When everyone fears, we should be more brave;
When everyone greedy, we should be more cautious.
Good luck.
There are two kinds of fears:
Fear of lose and
Fear of missing out.
What we saw last week is a typical "Fear of Lose" which donimate people's mind. Last Friday and this Monday just before market start a big rally, the "FEAR" reaches climax. A panic sell everywhere. People just want to get out regardless the heavy loss on their investment. "FEARS" controled people and drive the people to do some crazy thing. This reversed "Irrational exuberance" punch down the stock price cause Dow having the largest daily loss in three years. VIX had also reached 4 and half years high as 26.52 before it free fall start from this week. Someone lost heaviely in the "The Darkest Morning" just before market great run.
The second fear ,which is "Fear of missing out", controls people when market start a great rally. We saw the similar dramatic result: Dow has experienced the biggest one day gain in three year. +285! It's undo everything for what we saw on last Friday. The emotion quickly changed from extremely "Fear of lose" to "Fear of missing out". Guess what, the VIX dramatically fall from the top 26.52 to the today's low as 19.33. Do we have good news to drive this rally? No. We actually have some bad news instead. The productivity was not as high as expected and labor cost increased at same time. Fed did not cut rate as someone hoped. Does finanicial turmoil is over and we see the clear picture? Still the same. The uncertainty of financial world remaind same. What is the different? It must be some changes to cause this exaggerated result. Yes, there is one. The only changes are people's mind, the emotion, that made the difference.
What we learnd from it is:
Don't let emotion control over you. Everyone has fear, the differences between amaeur and seasoned trader is the capability to manage "fears" and risks.
If there is any tips we can give that will be:
When everyone fears, we should be more brave;
When everyone greedy, we should be more cautious.
Good luck.
评论
华尔街猎手
2007-08-08 20:51:49
回复
悄悄话
很多人会从你的分析中获益， 很荣幸成为你的博克的第一个回贴者。
登录后才可评论.
