真实的面对自己 - 止损的纪律和Trailing Stop移动止损

编者前言：

一位哲人说过：“生活中没有对与错，只有真和假”。在股市交易中，我们不可能每次都看得准确，总有失误的时候，而止损的纪律就变得非常重要。这个止损的道理谁都懂，只是说起来容易做起来难。一个成功的投资者必须能够真实地面对自己、面对现实，坦然地接受失败，不逃避、不幻想。要知道，如果总是不止损的话，本钱很快就会亏掉，到那时就什么技巧和信号也谈不上了。如果你发现自己反复多次都不能及时止损，每次都不知所措、下不了手，那就需要在进场交易的同时，同步设下止损单（最好是Trailing Stop移动止损），让证券交易所的电脑系统“替你”平仓退场。即便在平仓之后，市场很快又恢复原来的走势，你也无需后悔，看准信号之后再重新进场也不迟。因为只要留得青山在，就有的是机会让你从头再来。巴菲特有一句名言：Rule No.1: Never Lose Money. Rule No.2: Never Forget Rule No.1。很多人的失败都不是因为信号错了或者判断错了，而是不能真实地面对一时的失误，不能及时止损，最后变得深陷困境、难以自拔。如果你发现自己真的无法控制情绪，犹豫不决，舍不得下手，请把这项任务交给电脑来自动完成。你很可能最终发现，电脑其实比人类更“聪明”……

编者：三维预测网站 - www.3DForecast.com

It's about being smart, not right
Being wrong doesn't have to mean losses

By Tomi Kilgore, MarketWatch.com, June 2, 2003

Charts continue to warn of a pullback, as a number of technical indicators have reached overbought extremes. The U.S. dollar has recently hit a record low versus the euro. Economic uncertainty and deflation fears have sent long-term interest rates tumbling to five-decade lows.

Most of the time, stocks would at least take probably take a breather amid all those headwinds.

But prices keep going up.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) closed Friday up 1.5 percent at 963.59, and has rallied 18 percent since the end of September 2002.

If it can stay above 848.18 through the end of June, the benchmark index will have posted gains for three consecutive quarters for the first time since the fourth quarter of 1998, and the first and second quarters of 1999 -- the good ol' days.

You can't control or predict what will happen with the market on any given day or quarter, as unforeseen fundamental factors can pop up without notice. And even if you can predict the fundamentals, the market won't necessarily follow them. Just ask your mutual fund manager (See below).

The only time you really need to do your homework is when you put on a position. Because once you do, the rest is about money management. It's about making good, sound decisions that help you preserve capital during whatever possible scenario you can think of.

It's all about profits

Just because you think the market may go down doesn't mean you can't keep making money if you're "wrong," and the market goes up.

"Technically speaking there are many reasons -- overbought conditions, too much optimistic sentiment, intermarket problems, etc. -- to expect a normal pause," said Ralph Acampora, technical analyst from Prudential.

Lowry Research's Richard Dickson concurred, saying the market was "extremely vulnerable" to selling pressure, and will likely suffer a near term pullback. He noted, however, that the negative signals he sees tend to be short-term in nature, and so any pullback is likely to be "relatively moderate."

Acampora also pointed out that the stock market's internal indicators, primarily overall breadth, continue to point higher despite the negative technical backdrop.

"Whenever we encountered this dilemma," Acampora said, "we always fall back on the old adage: 'Never fight the tape.'"

As all of the most seasoned veterans know, it's not about being right or wrong, it's about making money.

Let MOST of it ride!

One of the most important Wall Street axioms, right alongside "The trend is your friend," is: "Cut your losses short, and let your profits ride."

There are a number of different possible outcomes when you enter a trade: 1) a large profit; 2) a small profit; 3) breakeven; 4) a small loss; and 5) a large loss.

The idea is that if you cut out the large losses, small profits, breakeven and small losses will cancel each other out, and you'll be left with large profits.

Of course, that's easier said than done. Emotions such as greed, fear and pride always get in the way, and profits are taken too early, and losses are left to widen.

It's takes a lot of discipline, and the lack of hindsight, to make it work.

As much as I'd like to believe that when I took money out of the market it had something to do with how smart I was, it probably had much more to do with how careful (or boring) I was.

There are a number of different scenarios that could work for each situation. For example, if you think the market may go down based just on how far it's gone and how fast, just remember there are investors out there that may be just as afraid to miss out on potential gains.

Unless the market actually acts on these fears to some degree, take a deep breath and resist the urge. A good idea is to set a stop loss on some of your position -- the operating word being "some" -- at some arbitrary lower level, such as at the low of the last down day.

You can then continue to raise the stop if the market keeps climbing. Even if the amount of the stop is small relative to the size of the overall position, this symbolic gesture can relieve enough stress to allow you to think clearly when a "normal" pullback occurs.

Or if you see a bunch of actual caution signs but the market keeps going, take "some" profits anyway. If you stop acting on the signals that you've found to work most of the time, it can cost you dearly when "normal" trading conditions return.

If you are "wrong," you are still involved and can always re-establish your full position. If you are "right," and the market starts to decline further, you can continue to close out pieces of your position until you're satisfied with your exposure to risk.

It's also not a bad idea to lighten up after the market runs even if you are still bullish, so you're not handcuffed if the market does pullback. If you're "right," you can always buy back the portion you sold when the market starts to run again. You sacrifice a small percentage gain for an opportunity to profit from a short-term decline.

So forget about being right or wrong, just try to play it smart.