正文
Historical precedents mostly point to a good period for stock investment from now through the end of April. However the day to day action in the stock market always carries more weight in our effort to figure out the market direction in the months ahead. When market tops, volatility always increases. The two sharp sell-offs in the last 10 sessions raise a warning sign. If the sell-off continues tomorrow, I will turn defensive and plan to close all my margins (I\'m 15% in margin).
On the positive side, leading stocks like GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, RIMM, BIDU, etc. held up very well in such a big down day. When the market is in trouble, the leading stocks usually got beaten up first. In additions, the 2.8% loss by the IBD 100 index today is quite modest in comparison to its relative performances in the past. So my hope is still alive that the market may stop the bleeding soon.
Headline news said the Fed may be done with the rate cutting. But views can change very quickly in the financial market. In the futures market, the chance of another quarter point cut in Dec. has increased from yesterday\'s 37% to today\'s 68% per IBD. If inflation remains reasonable and credit market continues to struggle, another cut may become a certain thing. From now to the Fed\'s next meeting, the market has 5 to 6 weeks to digest more economic data. So it’s quite likely we\'ll get a yo-yo market in the last two months of the year.
Headline news said the Fed may be done with the rate cutting. But views can change very quickly in the financial market. In the futures market, the chance of another quarter point cut in Dec. has increased from yesterday\'s 37% to today\'s 68% per IBD. If inflation remains reasonable and credit market continues to struggle, another cut may become a certain thing. From now to the Fed\'s next meeting, the market has 5 to 6 weeks to digest more economic data. So its quite likely we\'ll get a yo-yo market in the last two months of the year.
On the positive side, leading stocks like GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, RIMM, BIDU, etc. held up very well in such a big down day. When the market is in trouble, the leading stocks usually got beaten up first. In additions, the 2.8% loss by the IBD 100 index today is quite modest in comparison to its relative performances in the past. So my hope is still alive that the market may stop the bleeding soon.
Headline news said the Fed may be done with the rate cutting. But views can change very quickly in the financial market. In the futures market, the chance of another quarter point cut in Dec. has increased from yesterday\'s 37% to today\'s 68% per IBD. If inflation remains reasonable and credit market continues to struggle, another cut may become a certain thing. From now to the Fed\'s next meeting, the market has 5 to 6 weeks to digest more economic data. So it’s quite likely we\'ll get a yo-yo market in the last two months of the year.
Headline news said the Fed may be done with the rate cutting. But views can change very quickly in the financial market. In the futures market, the chance of another quarter point cut in Dec. has increased from yesterday\'s 37% to today\'s 68% per IBD. If inflation remains reasonable and credit market continues to struggle, another cut may become a certain thing. From now to the Fed\'s next meeting, the market has 5 to 6 weeks to digest more economic data. So its quite likely we\'ll get a yo-yo market in the last two months of the year.
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