正文
it\'s about being honest, truthful, and considerate of others. I\'ve been right and wrong a few times in the past:
2007-08-06 10:13:48, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=7065:
...早在前几年，有心或无意地买了一个或几个房子的人是非常幸运的，碰巧赶上了一波很强的 Real Estate up-cycle，决大多数人都赚到了钱，但这一事实不等於将来这样做就可以同样赚钱。对待任何 cyclical business 决不能在过去和现在之间划上一条直线、然后延伸到将来。
有人或许说，我买的房子出租，有 POSITIVE CASH FLOW，所以没问题。这种说法就类似于说我买的股票有 DIVIDENDS，所以不会亏一样。其实，不管是股票还是房地产，在高位买入总归要赔钱。因此，真正成功的 RE 投资者要把大部分注意力放在 TIMING THE MARKET 上，而不是眼前的 CASH FLOW 等细节上。买来自己住的房子要考虑 Location, location, location，出于投资目的买卖房地产要时刻考虑的是 Timing, timing, timing.
但买卖房地产的大原则却是与股票投资类似的，一种方法是做 Contrarian, 就是在房地产市场烂得不能再烂的时候进场买入，等房地产市场热得发烫的时候卖出退场。当然不太可能买到低、卖在顶，但大体上的 TIMING 对了就够赚的了。另外一种方法是当一个地区的房地产刚刚开始发热的时候进场，等热气有变凉的迹象时尽快退场，这类似于做股票时 Momentum 的方法，这种方法的风险比做 Contrarian 要大(尤其是卖出时)。
2007-08-13 06:29:28, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=17622:
房地产长期来看，就是个通货膨胀的一个 PROXY 而已，和其它的 COMMODITIES 相比没有什么太大的区别(当然可以住) ，谁能查一查黄金与房地产哪个长期增值率高？IvyLi 的数据和其它来源的数据一样，房地产长期增值率就是和通货膨胀率差不多。这里面的 volatility 不比SP500低多少，假如你经历了八十年代的美国 SAVINGS&LOANS CRISIS 引发的房地产政府大拍卖，你的想法就不同了，当时我朋友在 HOUSTON 城边儿上花五万美元买了两个政府拍卖的房子。只是你现在经历的是美国历史上最牛的房市，现在它很可能正处在开始回归历史平均的起点。
when I wrote those, I fully expected no one would listen, since the masters of RE on this board were pumping people to buy top-priced houses during the very hey days of 2007.
2007-11-23 12:13:58, 经济衰退将至？
2008-01-15 16:46:25, 经济衰退... 准备好了吗？
2008-05-12 20:02:25, 房地产价格的彻底崩溃: 这一切都预示着一件事 - 通货膨胀率的高涨
well, I was right on the conclusion of a recession coming, but very wrong on inflation. what happened was the opposite - deflation.
the fact is, no one should take things off a bulletin board seriously without doing his/her homework. generalized statements from personal experiences are not always suitable for others, since everyone\'s situation and knowledge level are so different.
one person made money on housing, he/she should not tell everyone buy houses any time, anywhere. another person lost money in stock market, he/she should not conclude that stock market is not good for everyone. someone with more knowledge or better luck may have made quite a bit from it.
I firmly believe investment education should be the #1 function of a public investment bulletin board. giving out specific tips on speculative stocks or houses to the general public is wrong, since less informed audiences may put his/her hard-earned money into those and lost big. making money in stocks is especially hard because it needs a complete plan, not only on what stock to buy, but also on how much to buy, and where to take losses or profits. how could anyone know other people\'s financial situation or temperament to make blind recommendations?
it is especially distasteful to push and pump specific stocks or housing purchases constantly to the public that he/she has a personal interests in. so my suggestion to masters or would-be masters or anyone for that matter is to share your investment knowledge and experiences, refrain from spreading or listening to specific tips. it doesn\'t benefit anyone but the originator.
just my two cents, worth exactly that much ...
2007-08-06 10:13:48, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=7065:
...早在前几年，有心或无意地买了一个或几个房子的人是非常幸运的，碰巧赶上了一波很强的 Real Estate up-cycle，决大多数人都赚到了钱，但这一事实不等於将来这样做就可以同样赚钱。对待任何 cyclical business 决不能在过去和现在之间划上一条直线、然后延伸到将来。
有人或许说，我买的房子出租，有 POSITIVE CASH FLOW，所以没问题。这种说法就类似于说我买的股票有 DIVIDENDS，所以不会亏一样。其实，不管是股票还是房地产，在高位买入总归要赔钱。因此，真正成功的 RE 投资者要把大部分注意力放在 TIMING THE MARKET 上，而不是眼前的 CASH FLOW 等细节上。买来自己住的房子要考虑 Location, location, location，出于投资目的买卖房地产要时刻考虑的是 Timing, timing, timing.
但买卖房地产的大原则却是与股票投资类似的，一种方法是做 Contrarian, 就是在房地产市场烂得不能再烂的时候进场买入，等房地产市场热得发烫的时候卖出退场。当然不太可能买到低、卖在顶，但大体上的 TIMING 对了就够赚的了。另外一种方法是当一个地区的房地产刚刚开始发热的时候进场，等热气有变凉的迹象时尽快退场，这类似于做股票时 Momentum 的方法，这种方法的风险比做 Contrarian 要大(尤其是卖出时)。
2007-08-13 06:29:28, http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200708&postID=17622:
房地产长期来看，就是个通货膨胀的一个 PROXY 而已，和其它的 COMMODITIES 相比没有什么太大的区别(当然可以住) ，谁能查一查黄金与房地产哪个长期增值率高？IvyLi 的数据和其它来源的数据一样，房地产长期增值率就是和通货膨胀率差不多。这里面的 volatility 不比SP500低多少，假如你经历了八十年代的美国 SAVINGS&LOANS CRISIS 引发的房地产政府大拍卖，你的想法就不同了，当时我朋友在 HOUSTON 城边儿上花五万美元买了两个政府拍卖的房子。只是你现在经历的是美国历史上最牛的房市，现在它很可能正处在开始回归历史平均的起点。
when I wrote those, I fully expected no one would listen, since the masters of RE on this board were pumping people to buy top-priced houses during the very hey days of 2007.
2007-11-23 12:13:58, 经济衰退将至？
2008-01-15 16:46:25, 经济衰退... 准备好了吗？
2008-05-12 20:02:25, 房地产价格的彻底崩溃: 这一切都预示着一件事 - 通货膨胀率的高涨
well, I was right on the conclusion of a recession coming, but very wrong on inflation. what happened was the opposite - deflation.
the fact is, no one should take things off a bulletin board seriously without doing his/her homework. generalized statements from personal experiences are not always suitable for others, since everyone\'s situation and knowledge level are so different.
one person made money on housing, he/she should not tell everyone buy houses any time, anywhere. another person lost money in stock market, he/she should not conclude that stock market is not good for everyone. someone with more knowledge or better luck may have made quite a bit from it.
I firmly believe investment education should be the #1 function of a public investment bulletin board. giving out specific tips on speculative stocks or houses to the general public is wrong, since less informed audiences may put his/her hard-earned money into those and lost big. making money in stocks is especially hard because it needs a complete plan, not only on what stock to buy, but also on how much to buy, and where to take losses or profits. how could anyone know other people\'s financial situation or temperament to make blind recommendations?
it is especially distasteful to push and pump specific stocks or housing purchases constantly to the public that he/she has a personal interests in. so my suggestion to masters or would-be masters or anyone for that matter is to share your investment knowledge and experiences, refrain from spreading or listening to specific tips. it doesn\'t benefit anyone but the originator.
just my two cents, worth exactly that much ...
评论
目前还没有任何评论
登录后才可评论.
