by seanyuk, 2/6/2008
As I should not be posting here due to more spam, I apologize in advance.I missed my trade on GIGM reading this thing again so I have 45mins, atleast AIRN, MFLX and IVAC are ok today.
But I still see people worrying or thinking "why?"
So here is how the sentiment in LDK will play out over the next 12months so you can trade it/flip flop it as you see fit.
Feb.
Media reports that the snow storm has heavily affected LDK and that guidance has pointed to lower shipped wafers.
Sheep play on that news it becomes a negative play again.
(Ignoring the fact of margin stablization as we predicted).
LDK's awesome PR/Ir team finally distribute the Taiwan deal to PRnewswire and AP. Stock pops and goes back down again-trading range etc. up 3 down 3.
Scenario 1- 21st Feb - LDK Reports q4 numbers at 0.41 with margins of under 28% - the 3 stooges see this as bad even though they have these margins built in to thier models and guidance pointed to it.
Scenario 2- 21st Feb - LDK Reports q4 numbers at 0.43 with margins of 28.8%- same as above as they will focus on q1.
Scenario 3- 21st Feb - LDK Reports q4 numbers at 0.49 with net profit of the year at 146mln including FX adjustments.
Stock pops 20%+ then analysts play on the plant and q1/q2.
Trades down 10% but new trading range.
Mar -Apr
Further updates on the plant plus 2 new contracts for 09+
Stock slowly rises with the stooges still focusing on plant and margins. Trading range rises slowly- with the usual short dips.
May-June
May 1st - LDK report q1 numbers of 0.42 eps above est. but rev flat- margins of 27.4% so lower than q4 but stablizing as predicted.
Plant 1 is nearing completion, equipment is being installed and tested. Now the stooges start to change their view to neutral but focus on the ASP dropping to 2.22 and the stock holds well as the general market improves.
09 is fully booked 08 has all of its needed poly, inventory days rise slightly so that enough poly is safe for q1 09.
Price of poly spot starts to fade.
July-Aug
2 more deals for 2010+
Plant testing is going well but issues with TCS gas implementation, but crucibles are being supplied easily.
4th aug LDK reports 0.47 0.07 better than est. stop pops 10%+ and analysts see margins stabilise at 27%
trading range rises and the 2 of the stooges mark LDK as a buy(not a strong buy).
Sept-Dec
Plant 1 goes online! and has produced 70mt of poly already.
Gas issue was resolved no interupts in crucible supply and power problems. Power agreement with the province remians fixed until 2012. Plant 2 construction is also nearing testing phase and equipment is being booked.
Nov 3rd - LDK reports 0.58 0.10 better than the eps upgrades from q2. any remaining stooges upgrade or stay at buy due to ASP dropping to 2.18. Margins are now 26.8%
Stock pops another 20% but dips due to poly worries and how much LDK can make for 09. 2 more contracts for 2010+
Jan-Feb 2009
Plant 2 ready for testing no issues with gas or crucible supply. Stock starts to head higher trading +5% weekly.
20th Feb LDK reports q4 0.62 eps ASP set at 2.18 0.08 better than est. everyone upgrades to strong buy on news that plant 2 is on track and plnat 1 is working fine.
3 more longterm contracts for 2011+
Ok so there is the story of LDK for next year is my conservative positive version and one I am following for now. It is not exact but then telling the future never is what you want it to be.
I could probably add more but I don't like posting much as it is distracting if focused on one stock.
