jdbalser:
Per conference call, LDK conversion costs are about $.30 per watt
Typical production costs for 1 kg of poly in china is $40
http://www.pr-inside.com/solar-grade-pol...
Based on the guidance Jack gave on the Q3 CC, LDK expects to use 4400 tons of poly to produce 510-530 megawatts of panels.
= 8.6 tons/MW.
1 metric ton = 1000 kg
($40 * 1000 * 8.6) / 1000000 = $.35
$.35 (per watt for poly) + $.30 (per watt for conversion to cell) = $.65 total cost / watt
Current average selling price for LDK solar panels approx $2.27 / watt.
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dell_bear:
LDK $0.65/Watt Wafer Cost in 2009 1-Jan-08 08:45 pm
You are a genius, much better than PJ anal-yst w your back of envelope calculation. You have get the major issue of LDK and solar industry.
The poly-Si cost for LDK is not $40/kg, but $150/kg, w long term MEMC (WFR) contract; and the spot price of $300/kg due to solar mania!
Say LDK's recent poly-Si cost is $160/kg, 4x higher than the $40/kg; thus the $0.35/Watt will increase to $1.40/Watt; Plus the $0.30/Watt conversion = $1.70/Watt cost for LDK.
Thus selling for $2.27/Watt would easily for a 30% profit margin.
Competitor like ReneSolar lock in their rate @ $250+/kg, therefore their profit margin is 10% lower.
How to reduce LDK's current poly cost from $160/kg to $40/kg???
Very easy decision: BUILD OWN POLY PLANT!
That's why Peng said last Dec that solar/Watt cost will reduce to wind energy cost if LDK's 15 KT poly plant is up and running in 2009. The LDK wafer cost will reduce from $1.70 to $0.65 per Watt!
add cheap Chinese labor of ~$0.34/Watt for solar panel assembly;
Total cost per Watt is $0.99 in 2009 for silicon solar companies.
NanoSalor claim to achieve up to $0.99/Watt in large scale production long term...
LDK would reach the goal w 99% certainty in 2009 to reach the same goal! Since the poly plant is built by Fortuate 500 American company Fluor, which has built similar plants in 2005 and 2007.
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jdbalser:
That’s what I was afraid of… I started with a small investment in LDK and the more I’ve researched, the more I’ve invested. I think the UBS analyst was hinting at this figure in the CC and I’m not sure why no one has started talking about it. This cost seems astronomically low and almost hits the number nanosolar CEO mentioned in his interview. Someone else posted something about a “non-compete” type agreement with STP. Imagine what might happen if those two join forces!
Dell_bear… thanks for the compliment. I actually worked as an analyst at Capital One for a few years until the idiocy and immorality threatened my sanity. I've got a few friends who work on wall street as well, and let's just say they don't possess a whole lot of integrity... so much for Rand-ian capitalism here in America
