正文
as of now, LDK is one dominant player among Chinese solars that is also positioned at upper stream,
Q3 will be at least 0.37, for comparison, STP 0.32, TSL 0.29, JASO 0.47,
so the price at 36 is not a result of "normal" FAs... the "trust" discount on the inventory issue seems a bit out of proportion,
the long term competitiveness, the best number in terms of low cost silicon wafer so far published is the one from Asian Silicon, one of STP's future suppliers (STP potentially own stakes there too by the way), at $40 when it ramp up its full capacity, maybe in 3 years,
it had been a heavy cloud on LDK until yesterday, when an interview of LDK's CFO by a small investor rep was published on finance.google.com's msg board, that LDK's cost will be $50 after 2009 which its 16000 ton poly factory up and running... That, is a very significant piece of info. That means LDK will stay ultra competitive and with dominant scale in the upper stream, NOT to be leaf-fogged.
(The one who would be leap fogged, I'm afraid, might be WFR. )
In my opinion, the price pressure on the downstream players, cell and module makers, will be at least as much as it to the upper stream players.
vertical integration will be the way to go. It should be noticed that TSL has been pushing this direction for a while although at smaller scale, STP didn't publish but I think there were quite some hints in its last CC when CEO mentioned that "we are invited to many such (opportunities)". Plus, in my opinion, it would be much easier for LDK to push downstream than any module maker to push upstream (nature resource, electricity constraints etc).
all in all, as long as the huge "trust discount" on LDK gets gradually removed, its value will be eventually win the MMs and MoMos... and if you ask me, it's winning them back now,
Q3 will be at least 0.37, for comparison, STP 0.32, TSL 0.29, JASO 0.47,
so the price at 36 is not a result of "normal" FAs... the "trust" discount on the inventory issue seems a bit out of proportion,
the long term competitiveness, the best number in terms of low cost silicon wafer so far published is the one from Asian Silicon, one of STP's future suppliers (STP potentially own stakes there too by the way), at $40 when it ramp up its full capacity, maybe in 3 years,
it had been a heavy cloud on LDK until yesterday, when an interview of LDK's CFO by a small investor rep was published on finance.google.com's msg board, that LDK's cost will be $50 after 2009 which its 16000 ton poly factory up and running... That, is a very significant piece of info. That means LDK will stay ultra competitive and with dominant scale in the upper stream, NOT to be leaf-fogged.
(The one who would be leap fogged, I'm afraid, might be WFR. )
In my opinion, the price pressure on the downstream players, cell and module makers, will be at least as much as it to the upper stream players.
vertical integration will be the way to go. It should be noticed that TSL has been pushing this direction for a while although at smaller scale, STP didn't publish but I think there were quite some hints in its last CC when CEO mentioned that "we are invited to many such (opportunities)". Plus, in my opinion, it would be much easier for LDK to push downstream than any module maker to push upstream (nature resource, electricity constraints etc).
all in all, as long as the huge "trust discount" on LDK gets gradually removed, its value will be eventually win the MMs and MoMos... and if you ask me, it's winning them back now,
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